New data from Turkey’s Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EMRA) reveals a 30% surge in Turkey’s gas imports from Iran in 2024 compared to the previous year. In 2023, Turkey purchased approximately 7 billion cubic meters of gas from Iran.
More notably, Iran’s gas exports to Turkey increased by 75% in the last four months of 2023 compared to the same period in the previous year, despite Iran facing a massive gas shortage domestically.
This sharp increase in gas exports during the cold months comes as Iran has been grappling with a severe gas shortage. In recent months, the government has imposed strict restrictions on gas supply to industries, while shortages at power plants have led to widespread electricity blackouts across the country.
The exact revenue the Iranian regime has generated from gas exports to Turkey remains unclear. However, data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) shows that Turkey’s total imports from Iran—including gas—amounted to only $2.45 billion in 2023.
Amid the gas shortage, Iran has not only restricted industrial and power plant operations but has also resorted to burning large quantities of mazut (heavy fuel oil) as a substitute.
Iran Could Have Earned More by Exporting Mazut Instead of Gas
Seven billion cubic meters of gas is equivalent to seven billion liters of mazut or diesel. Had Iran exported this amount of mazut or diesel instead of gas, it could have generated at least $3.5 billion in revenue—exceeding Iran’s total earnings from gas and other exports to Turkey.
Iran’s gas exports to Iraq surpass those to Turkey. Despite the growing gas shortage, the administration of Massoud Pezeshkian, the Iranian regime’s president, has allocated 16 billion cubic meters of gas exports in the 2025 budget, valued at $5 billion—two billion cubic meters more than in the 2024 budget.
Iran’s 25-Year Gas Export Agreement with Turkey Nearing Expiry
Iran’s 25-year gas export agreement with Turkey is set to expire next year, and Iranian regime officials have repeatedly called for its extension.
Replacing Iranian Gas in Turkey and Iraq
After months of resistance from Iranian regime’s officials, Turkey finally began importing Turkmen gas via Iran on Saturday. This year, a total of 1.3 billion cubic meters of Turkmen gas is set to be delivered to Turkey through a swap agreement with Iran.
Iraq has also signed a similar agreement with Turkmenistan, but Iran has yet to approve the swap of Turkmen gas to Iraq.
U.S. Pressure on Iraq to End Dependence on Iranian Gas
The Trump administration recently warned Iraq to halt its gas purchases from Iran. Since last year, the Iraqi government has signed several major foreign contracts to reduce its reliance on Iranian gas. Last week, coinciding with a U.S. ultimatum, Iraq reached an agreement with British energy giant BP to further develop its oil and gas fields.
