Increasing the third-tier gasoline price from 50,000 rials to 100,000 rials will place additional pressure on household finances. The decision could increase the costs of transportation, goods, and services. Businesses that depend on vehicles will also be affected by the price change.
The spokesperson for the government of Iranian regime president Masoud Pezeshkian announced on Sunday evening, August 6, that the first and second fuel quotas would remain unchanged. Under the decision, 60 liters will be supplied at a price of 15,000 rials. Another 50 liters will be available to consumers at 30,000 rials.
The change is being implemented while the gap between fuel production and consumption remains significant. Some reports indicate a daily gasoline production shortfall of 10 million liters.
Third-Tier Price Change Under the Pretext of Managing Gasoline Consumption
The increase in the third-tier gasoline price directly raises the cost of fuel consumed outside the allocated quotas. This increase will have a greater impact on people who are more dependent on vehicles.
Workers, drivers, salespeople, and mobile business operators are among the vulnerable groups. Many of these people depend on cars or motorcycles to earn their daily income. Therefore, higher fuel costs could reduce part of their earnings.
On the other hand, higher transportation costs can be passed on to other household expenses. The movement of goods, services, and labor depends on fuel consumption. Therefore, the impact of this price change will not be limited to household fuel expenses.
Claims About Gasoline Consumption Versus Rising Costs
Karamat Vais-Karami, the managing director of the National Iranian Oil Products Distribution Company, referred to the experience of implementing the three-tier pricing scheme. Average daily gasoline consumption from March 22, 2025, to December 13 was 131 million liters. Following the implementation of the three-tier pricing scheme, average consumption fell to about 124 million liters by March 21, 2026. Based on this trend, Vais-Karami predicted a reduction in consumption following the adjustment of the third-tier price.
According to this estimate, daily consumption will decrease by at least 3 million liters. With daily consumption of about 132 million liters, this reduction is equivalent to approximately 2.3%. However, a reduction in fuel consumption does not necessarily mean less economic pressure on the people.
One of the main reasons cited for adjusting the third-tier price is the gap between production and consumption. Since March 22, 2026, average daily production has been reported at 122 million liters. During the same period, daily consumption reached 132 million liters. Thus, there has been a gap of about 10 million liters between daily production and consumption.
According to the regime’s claims, this gap has widened in September. In the first half of the Persian month of Shahrivar, corresponding to August 23 to September 6, average daily distribution reached 145 million liters. Production during the same period was also reported at about 135 million liters.
Experts have warned of the ripple effects of this increase. According to published analyses, an increase in gasoline prices first raises freight transportation costs; this is then followed by higher prices for retail goods and increased production costs for factories.
At the end of this chain, taxi drivers and motorcycle couriers also raise their fares, a process that ultimately increases the cost of everyday life for all citizens.
The weakness of public transportation in most Iranian cities has also limited the possibility of switching to alternatives. Soon, this price differential will also be reflected in the prices of other goods.
