Iran’s regime has been engaged in a series of conflicts in the Middle East, capturing global attention since October 2023. Initially, questions arose regarding the regime’s role in sparking these conflicts. However, after three months of intense fighting and the evident involvement of Iran’s proxies in the region, it is now widely acknowledged that the regime has inflamed the entire region. But what lies behind Iran’s warmongering? The answer lies in the regime’s desperate attempts to divert attention from its internal problems.
The regime’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, faced with widespread discontent and ongoing uprisings, feared his own overthrow during the 2022 uprising. To safeguard the regime, Tehran’s primary objective in fomenting regional crises is to create a smokescreen that conceals the precarious internal state of the regime and the volatile conditions within Iranian society. This tactic of exporting crises abroad is not a demonstration of strength but rather a means of running away from the regime’s profound domestic vulnerabilities, as the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) writes in a new analysis report.
Iranian society is a rumbling volcano, characterized by a convergence of socio-economic challenges and escalating political repression. This volatile mix has frequently erupted into significant protests and uprisings nationwide, highlighting the regime’s failure to address the root issues. Insiders within the regime have persistently warned about the inevitable troubles that lie ahead.
One such warning came from Azar Mansouri, the Secretary-General of the Islamic Iran Nation Party, who highlighted the economic hardships faced by different groups within Iranian society. The income for various professions, including workers, teachers, and retirees, falls short of meeting their daily expenses, exacerbating the discontent among the population. Mansouri stated, “If we cannot describe this situation as insecurity, what term would be fitting for this trend of diminishing the resources available to people?”
Hossein Marashi, the Secretary-General of the Kargozaran Party, echoed these concerns, acknowledging that over 75% of the Iranian population expresses dissatisfaction. Marashi warned, “If those dissatisfied take to the streets, no one can put up with them… We have a significant dissatisfied population, a portion of whom actively protest in the streets, and a small fraction might resort to causing disturbances.”
Former intelligence interrogator Abbas Abdi pointed out the negative public sentiment towards the current political and managerial situation in Iran. Abdi cited recent polls suggesting that only 7% of Iranians advocate for the existing state of affairs. He emphasized the urgent need for effective and sustainable resolutions to address the serious disparities within Iranian society, warning of a bleak future if the regime fails to act.
The regime’s own media outlets have also issued stark warnings. The Jomhouri Eslami newspaper cautioned, “Don’t presume the people’s patience is unlimited. Beware of the day when the army of the hungry rises against you.” In a report titled “Heed the footsteps of a crisis larger than 2022,” the state-run Eqtesad24 emphasized that immediate action is required to address inequalities and prevent future unrest.
Despite the calls for change from various factions within Iran, the collective tenure of these officials at the helm of the country’s political and socio-economic affairs has fallen short of meaningful action. Iranians are disillusioned and have moved beyond the regime’s internal factions. Public statements, even those criticizing the regime’s leadership, offer no solace and cannot save the regime from the imminent burst of outrage.
Faced with an unwilling and incapable regime resistant to change, the clerical regime seeks to export its crises by instigating major conflicts in neighboring countries. Unfortunately, due to misunderstandings or the influence of the regime’s deceptive campaigns, the international community has failed to comprehend the true motives behind Iran’s illicit regional activities. The NCRI highlights the need to recognize that Tehran does not require a mere policy change but rather a complete regime change for lasting peace in the Middle East.
