The Food Safety Crisis in Iran: Contaminated Rice ImportsThis agricultural expert, citing existing records, estimated the actual cultivated area to be around 600,000 hectares, with 67% of it located in the provinces of Gilan and Mazandaran. Adibi also described the Ministry of Agriculture’s claim about aerial mapping as “lacking technical validity” and said, “Such a plan has not been implemented on a large scale.” Adibi added that the area under rice cultivation in 2023 had not changed compared to the previous year. He explained that, according to the official report of the Ministry of Agriculture, the paddy production this year, including the first cultivation, re-cultivation, and ratoon harvests, was estimated at about 3.485 million tons, equivalent to the production of 2 million tons of white rice. The former “rice project manager” also added that due to issues in accessing agricultural inputs, a reduction in the distribution of high-quality seeds, and a lack of progress in cultivation methods, rice production has not increased this year. Adibi emphasized: “The claim of producing 2.7 million tons of white rice in 2024, which implies a 35% increase in production compared to the previous year, does not align with the realities of production in 2024.” This agricultural expert warned that unprofessional estimates, in addition to impacting the increase in rice prices in the market, will raise the production costs for the 2025 agricultural year, particularly the wages of farmers, further burdening both consumers and producers. Previously, Majidreza Khaki, spokesperson for the Rice Importers Association, stated that the price of Iranian rice had increased by 30% in less than a month. Reports citing official statistics also indicate that sugar increased by 66%, Iranian rice by 56%, and cooking oil by 40% in December compared to the same month last year. The price increases come at a time when the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran recently claimed that the 12-month inflation rate reached 36% in December 2024, the lowest in the past 50 months. The inflation in Iran is influenced by economic policies, the Iranian regime’s actions outside its borders, the ongoing devaluation of the rial, and the power and gas outages in industries. This situation has been reflected in the protests of retirees, workers, and other wage earners, who have voiced their objections to the Iranian government officials.
Decline in Rice Production and Rising Prices in Iran Amid Inflation Growth and Public Protests
The import of rice from March 21 to December 21, 2024, has decreased by approximately 20%, while the Ministry of Agriculture has claimed that with the production of 2.7 million tons of rice this year, the country’s need for imports has reduced.
According to the state-run Tasnim News Agency, Shayegan Adibi, introduced as an agricultural expert and the former “rice project manager” at the Ministry of Agriculture, stated that according to the latest official report by the ministry, the area under rice cultivation in 2023 was announced to be approximately 700,000 hectares. Including re-cultivation and ratoon harvests, this figure reached 790,000 hectares.
Iran: Housing Constitutes 70% of Workers’ Expenses
Members of the Iranian regime’s Supreme Labor Council have reported from wage determination meetings that housing accounts for more than 70% of workers’ expenses. This has led labor and employer groups to pursue the issue of building housing for workers in collaboration with the government. However, many labor activists view this with skepticism, believing it to be an excuse for the government and employers to avoid raising wages in line with inflation and workers’ basic needs.
In this context, Mohammad Reza Tajik, a member of the Wage Committee of the Supreme Labor Council, told the state-run Tasnim news agency that one of the issues discussed was providing low-interest loans to workers. Another proposal was to rezone some land around industrial towns so employers could provide housing for workers.
Houses in Iran Shrink as Poverty GrowsAccording to this labor activist, workers may not be able to build housing with their limited savings and capital, but if cheap or free land is provided to them, they could become homeowners through partnerships with builders. Critics argue that raising issues such as housing provision is a diversion tactic, as it is a time-consuming process that allows the government to avoid addressing the immediate financial needs of worker households. Media outlets have also reported on the dire conditions of workers. The Tabnak website wrote: “The rapid rise in the prices of essential goods and repeated price increases have significantly reduced workers’ purchasing power. Although wages were supposed to match inflation, the pace of inflation is so fast that it fails to offset workers’ expenses.” This media outlet highlighted the gap, noting that the maximum income of a married worker is less than 150 million rials (approximately $178). In comparison, according to Faramarz Tofighi, a former member of the Supreme Labor Council, the minimum cost of living for a household in metropolitan areas in September 2024 was 320 million rials (approximately $380) and 283 million rials (approximately $356) in smaller cities.
Wages of Iranian workers cover only 30% of household expensesIn this regard, the inspector of the Supreme Assembly of Workers’ Representatives announced that the cost of the livelihood basket for a 3.3-member worker’s family has reached 400 million rials (approximately $475), while the average wage of workers is only 150 million rials, covering merely 30% of household expenses. According to the state-run Tasnim news agency, Hamidreza Emamqoli Tabar, the inspector of the Supreme Assembly of Workers’ Representatives, stated, “About 9% of workers in some provinces receive wages below the labor law, between 70 to 80 million rials (approximately $83 to $95).” Meanwhile, critics believe that instead of supporting wage adjustments and improving workers’ living standards, the Iranian regime is looking for a formula to suppress wages. These individuals refer to recent comments by Ahmad Meidari, Iran’s Minister of Cooperatives, Labor, and Social Welfare, who stated, “It is not correct for us to determine the minimum wage based on the minimum cost of living and inflation. This figure should be set according to the level of work hardship in various industries.” The issues raised and the government’s and employers’ approach to determining workers’ wages come as, in October of this year, the state-run ILNA news agency reported an increase in the cost of the household livelihood basket to 367.8 million rials (approximately $437) and wrote, “Wages do not even cover one-third of living expenses.”
New U.S. Secretary of State: Snapback Mechanism to Be Activated Against Tehran
U.S. Senator Ted Cruz announced that Marco Rubio, the new U.S. Secretary of State, supports activating the snapback mechanism against the Iranian regime. According to Cruz, Rubio responded to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, stating that implementing the snapback mechanism is essential for U.S. national interests.
Elise Stefanik, Trump’s nominee for the United Nations, also identified the revival of the snapback mechanism as one of her main goals. She emphasized that countering the Iranian regime’s policies is a priority in her agenda at the United Nations.
The snapback mechanism refers to the automatic reinstatement of United Nations sanctions against the Iranian regime. This process is outlined in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and is valid until October 2025. According to UN Security Council Resolution 2231, countries have until fall of next year to activate the snapback mechanism.
The reinstatement of international sanctions would obligate the Iranian regime to halt uranium enrichment activities and research and development. It would also prohibit the transfer of related materials and equipment to Iran.
The snapback mechanism also reinstates conventional arms embargoes. All countries would be required to inspect shipments to and from Iran, and any prohibited cargo would be confiscated.
The U.S. cannot activate the snapback mechanism due to its withdrawal from the JCPOA during Trump’s presidency. However, European powers have until October of next year to activate this process.
Germany, France, and the United Kingdom announced in November 2024 that they were ready to activate the snapback mechanism. This announcement followed a report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) about Iran’s 60% uranium enrichment. The European parties also pointed to the Iranian regime’s military support for Russia and adopted a tougher stance.
European Troika’s Threat to Activate the Snapback and the Clerics’ Pleas
The IAEA Board of Governors adopted a resolution against the Iranian regime in November 2024. This resolution condemned the expansion of Iran’s nuclear activities and its lack of cooperation with the agency. It was the second resolution in six months.
Abbas Araghchi, the Iranian regime’s Foreign Minister, warned that the reinstatement of sanctions might alter the nature of Iran’s nuclear program. His remarks have been interpreted as a potential reference to the possibility of nuclear weapons development.
The UK, France, and Germany held negotiations with the Iranian regime in Vienna ahead of Trump’s return to the White House. The goal of these talks was to discuss the conditions for activating the snapback mechanism and reimposing sanctions.
The snapback mechanism is a tool to pressure the Iranian regime. It can reinstate all sanctions and impose severe restrictions. Global powers use this mechanism to curb Iran’s nuclear program.
Until the expiration of the JCPOA, the snapback mechanism will remain one of the most important international tools for controlling the Iranian regime. If conditions remain unchanged, the likelihood of activating this mechanism will increase. Global powers will use this tool to ensure regional and international security.
On Monday, January 13, Majid Takht-Ravanchi, the Iranian regime’s Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs, and his counterparts from France, the UK, and Germany attended a confidential meeting. No details from the
session have been released. Kazem Gharib Abadi, the Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs, was also present.
This meeting was the second round of negotiations in the past two months. The talks, held in Geneva, involved Iranian regime officials and the European Troika. Trump supporters in the U.S. deemed these negotiations futile and have urged Washington not to trust the Iranian regime.
Fear of Snapback Activation and Seeking Negotiations Despite Official Denial
Senator Ted Cruz accused the Biden administration of yielding to Tehran.
Joe Wilson, a member of Congress, made similar remarks. He stated that the Iranian regime is deceitful and seeks only chaos. He added that maximum pressure will soon be imposed on the regime and assured that Trump will rectify the situation.
Marco Rubio, the newly appointed U.S. Secretary of State, commented that the Iranian regime is exploiting opportunities to expand its nuclear program. Rubio emphasized that these actions are escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s Foreign Minister, rejected direct negotiations with Washington. He stated that the regime is unaware of the new U.S. administration’s position on the JCPOA.
Araghchi declared that negotiations between the Iranian regime and the U.S. have only been indirect. He referred to the Oman talks, which he called the “Muscat Process.”
Meanwhile, some Iranian officials have spoken about the necessity of direct negotiations. Ali Abdolalizadeh announced that the regime has reached a point of needing “face-to-face negotiations” and emphasized that talks should be held with Trump.
Mohammad Javad Larijani, an advisor to Khamenei, expressed a similar sentiment, saying, “If it serves the interests of the regime, even in the depths of hell, negotiations with the devil are possible.”
The threat of the snapback mechanism has created significant concern within the Iranian regime.
In recent months, the Iranian regime has been in its weakest domestic and international position. The snapback mechanism brings the return of sanctions and international pressures. This mechanism will lead to the
suspension of Iran’s nuclear activities. The snapback mechanism poses a serious threat to the Iranian regime and has generated significant fear.
Iran’s Rial Continues to Plunge, Hits All-Time Low At 840,000 Against the Dollar
One day after the Supreme Leader of the Iranian regime, Ali Khamenei, expressed concern about Iran’s economic dependence on the U.S. dollar, and simultaneously with the release of images of Massoud Pezeshkian digging in Khuzestan, the value of the rial plummeted again, with the price of one U.S. dollar in Iran’s free market exceeding 840,000 rials.
According to reports from Iran, on Thursday, January 23, the price of one U.S. dollar in the free market was 840,350 rials.
In recent hours, as the price of the dollar and other currencies continued to rise in Iran’s free market, users on social media reacted to the falling value of the rial.
Some users pointed out that the 840,000-rial record for the dollar and the gold coin price reaching 600 million rials (approximately $712) occurred just two days after Donald Trump assumed the U.S. presidency, while the Iranian regime had sent former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif to Davos to stabilize the market.
Khamenei’s remarks about removing the dollar from trade in Iran coincided with news that one day after Donald Trump was sworn in as the 47th U.S. president, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had contacted Trump to propose a $600 billion investment in the United States.
Several users compared the U.S. and Iranian presidents, referencing images of Massoud Pezeshkian digging with work clothes in oil-rich Khuzestan. They noted that while the dollar’s value crossed 840,000 rials, the Iranian president was shoveling in Khuzestan, whereas Donald Trump had attracted billions of dollars in investment for his country in just two days.
Earlier, Steven Mnuchin, Donald Trump’s nominee for U.S. Treasury Secretary, said on Thursday, January 16, that the dollar must remain the world’s reserve currency.
The Banks of Iran: Serving the Economy or Corrupt Capitalism?
The chaotic state of banks in Iran is one of the main causes of the country’s economic crisis. Instead of playing a supportive role in production, they have become tools serving the ruling establishment. This shift has led to an increase in debt and inflation.
The latest list of major bank debtors, dated mid-December 2024, was recently published by the Central Bank. According to the report, the overdue claims of banks have exceeded 7,890 trillion rials (approximately $9.85 billion). This figure is the result of large loans taken by state-owned, semi-state-owned companies and influential individuals.
The resources come from public deposits. The uncertainty in the repayment of these debts harms the public rights of the Iranian people.
The Iranian Regime’s Debt to Banks Has Increased By “Two and A Half Times” In Past Three YearsHigh bank interest rates have led to an increase in liquidity. The competition among private banks to pay higher interest rates has fueled liquidity growth, becoming a driver of inflation and an expansion of the monetary base. Banks have entered various markets without accountability. This dangerous action has disrupted production and destabilized the economy. High bank interest rates have reduced productive activities. While economic growth has stalled, banks in Iran are engaged in non-productive activities. Banks have altered the path of the economy. They do not extend loans to the private sector in Iran, sidelining it. Bank-affiliated companies, state-owned, and semi-state-owned companies take large loans but fail to repay them. In reality, banks have directed financial resources to their affiliated entities. Easy loans to insider companies have created massive bank debts, leading to significant economic problems. Currency fluctuations and the rising price of coins show that the banking system is actively involved in informal markets. Productive activities in the country do not yield similar profits. This indicates that the banking system has moved its capital into speculative currency and coin markets. In the 2000s, the entry of the banking system into the housing market caused an uncontrolled surge in prices. This growth led to severe recessions, the effects of which are still present. In recent years, mismanagement within the banking system has led to a decline in public trust. Many people have withdrawn their deposits from the banking system due to the poor performance of banks. This loss of confidence has put additional pressure on the economy. The lack of transparency in the banking system’s operations is one of the main reasons for the crisis. Banks do not fully disclose their financial reports. This lack of transparency has made oversight of their operations difficult. Insufficient supervision has allowed banks to continue their harmful activities without accountability. The latest list of major bank debtors, dated late December, was recently published by the Central Bank. The list includes updated names of debtors from various banks, such as Shahr, Eghtesad Novin, Refah Kargaran, Sarmayeh, and Iran Post, updated through late autumn 2024. Other banks on the list include Export Development, Middle East, Karafarin, Keshavarzi (Agriculture), Iran Zamin, Ayandeh, Dey, Sina, Iran-Venezuela, Gardeshgari (Tourism), and Melli banks. Subsidiaries of the banking system are all listed among the top bank debtors. According to the Central Bank, the Iran Government Trading Corporation and the Amir Mansour Arya Group are the largest debtors of Bank Melli. Additionally, companies such as Mazandaran Wood and Paper, Isfahan Steel, and Iran Steel Industrial Group are among the major debtors of Bank Melli. Railway companies, Verdin Pazan, and Rail Transportation are also included in this list. Various banks are still struggling to recover their large claims. These debts have not only pressured the banking system but have also harmed Iran’s economy. The banking system, instead of supporting production, has exacerbated the economic crisis. Their policies have effectively hindered economic development. In Iran, the banking system uses public capital for the ruling establishment’s profiteering purposes. This has widened social inequality and increased poverty. The banking system in Iran operates as a tool of the ruling establishment. Instead of being accountable to the people, they implement government policies. This has caused banks to lose their intended role in the economy.
The Bankruptcy of Industries in Iran
Gas and electricity outages in Iran’s industries are one of the serious economic issues that have affected production and employment in recent years.
Manufacturing industries require continuous access to energy to maintain production stability. However, in practice, frequent electricity and gas outages have halted production lines and reduced efficiency. This issue has imposed heavy costs on industries and decreased product quality.
Furthermore, the persistence of energy carrier outages indicates that the energy infrastructure is incapable of meeting industrial demands. Even with financial resources, industries cannot return to stable production, disrupting the entire economic cycle.
Iran: 50% Reduction in Industrial Production Due to Power ShortagesMohammad Atabak, Iran’s Minister of Industry, Mines, and Trade, announced that in recent government meetings, the imbalance and shortage of energy for industries have been a constant topic of discussion. He emphasized that Masoud Pezeshkian, the President of the Iranian regime, has expressed his support for ensuring the supply of gas and electricity for production. In this regard, a support package has been prepared in collaboration with the private sector and is set to be presented to the cabinet after approval by the Economic Commission. However, two weeks after this announcement, there has been no news of the support package’s approval. The Minister of Industry once again announced that the package is under review in the cabinet and stated that its details will be announced within the next two sessions. He emphasized that the support package will be provided to production units to compensate for electricity and gas outages in industries. According to him, this measure is being implemented for the first time and is not merely symbolic. According to a report presented by Mohammad Atabak, the electricity supplied to industries in the first half of this year was 40% less than the same period last year. Moreover, the downtime in industrial production has increased from 14% last year to 22%. This reduction in access to electricity and gas has had devastating effects on industrial production and efficiency. The Ministry of Industry, Mines, and Trade announced that the losses caused by reduced production in the country’s major industries reached 1.73 quadrillion rials (approximately $2.1 billion) in the summer of 2024 alone. Alireza Kolahi, head of the Iranian Chamber of Commerce’s Industry Commission, explained the main points of the support package. He stated that deferring payments for water, electricity, and gas in industries is one of the core policies of this package. According to him, this measure is proposed to reduce financial pressure on industrial units and prevent their closure. Alireza Kolahi also mentioned the deferral of loan installments as one of the key solutions in this package. However, the financial crises of Pezeshkian’s administration have made it difficult to completely eliminate penalties. He emphasized that expecting industrial units to pay interest on loans, taxes, and other expenses is impossible when many of them operate only two days a week. Pezeshkian’s government has discussed measures such as tax deferrals, insurance premium postponements, and loan repayment extensions. Special facilities for paying energy costs have also been included in this package. Nevertheless, frequent electricity and gas outages have left many production units unable to pay taxes and other expenses. This demonstrates that the support package cannot address the underlying problems. Many experts believe that with the continuation of gas and electricity outages, there will be no production to export. The continuation of outages has reduced industrial revenues, ultimately leading to lower employment and higher unemployment. Support packages have no impact because they fail to resolve the primary issue of sustainable energy supply.
Rafael Grossi: Iran Should Reach an Agreement with the Trump Administration Regarding Its Nuclear Activities
Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), stated that the Iranian government must reach an understanding with the administration of Donald Trump, the newly elected president of the United States, to prevent another military conflict in the Middle East.
Speaking to Bloomberg Television on the sidelines of the 2025 annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Mr. Grossi said: “We are engaging with Russia, with China, with the European countries, but it’s clear for everybody that the US is indispensable,” he said.
In this interview, published on Tuesday, January 21, he added: “What we need is to find an understanding. This is going to be our mission in the next few weeks.”
With the defeat of Tehran’s proxy groups in Lebanon, Gaza, and Syria, as well as the increase in the regime’s 60% enriched uranium stockpile, concerns about the Iranian government’s attempts to acquire nuclear weapons have intensified.
The Director General of the IAEA confirmed that the Iranian regime continues to produce large quantities of highly enriched uranium and emphasized: “Now we need to come to terms with how we deal with this, excluding, of course, a war.”
During Donald Trump’s first term as president, he pursued a “maximum pressure” policy against the Iranian regime and withdrew the United States from the nuclear agreement reached during Barack Obama’s administration, which imposed restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.
Previously, Marco Rubio, the new U.S. Secretary of State, during his confirmation hearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on January 15, emphasized that the Iranian regime is in its weakest state and added that any concessions to the Iranian regime would be used to expand its nuclear program and create tensions in the Middle East.
Marco Rubio further stated that there are two lines of thought within the Iranian regime: one suggesting that the situation is dire, and time must be bought, and the other advocating reliance on nuclear capabilities by enriching uranium from 60% to 90% to safeguard against any external actions.
In this context, Emmanuel Macron, the President of France, recently warned that the acceleration of Iran’s nuclear program is reaching very close to the point of no return.
Last December, the United Kingdom, Germany, and France accused the Iranian government of increasing its enriched uranium stockpiles to unprecedented levels without providing any credible civilian justification for this action.
These three powerful U.S. allies in Europe emphasized their determination to use all diplomatic tools to prevent the Iranian regime from acquiring nuclear weapons, including invoking the snapback mechanism if necessary.
The snapback mechanism, which is part of the 2015 agreement known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), allows the signatories to reimpose United Nations sanctions on Iran in case of “significant non-compliance” with the agreement.
Snapback Sanctions and Iran’s Nuclear Weapons ProgramThe option to activate this mechanism expires this October, adding greater urgency to the ongoing diplomatic efforts.
Environmental Crisis, Air Pollution, and Mismanagement of Iran’s Resources
Masoud Pezeshkian, the President of the Iranian regime, spoke at the National Clean Air Day Conference on January 20. He stated that this year the government had planned not to burn mazut and had announced this decision, but they faced constraints. If mazut had not been burned, they would have had to cut off gas supplies to households.
Pezeshkian added that the government’s slogan is to uphold the law. Expressing displeasure over the non-implementation of laws, he stated that this issue is unpleasant for the government, even though the government itself has not implemented some laws. He noted that certain laws do not maintain a balance between resources and consumption.
Pezeshkian once again identified citizens as the primary cause of energy imbalances and the burning of mazut. He emphasized that to improve living standards, a balance must be created between resources and consumption. He acknowledged that these imbalances are not limited to the energy sector and mazut burning.
Schools Closed in Several Cities Across IranReferring to existing laws, he stated that the government faced challenges in paying wheat farmers. The law mandates the purchase of wheat, but the funds were not available. The government needed to pay 2.2 quadrillion rials (approximately $2.67 billion), while it had only 1.6 quadrillion rials (approximately $1.94 billion) at its disposal. He added that the government had drawn from the environmental, healthcare, and treatment budgets, yet it still fell short. He added that the government has spent $150 billion on fuel, and these resources are being wasted. He stressed that imbalances exist in all sectors, including water, electricity, gas, and the environment, and he called on experts to step in and help solve these issues. Pezeshkian commented on the gas and electricity cuts to production centers, stating that this is not the right approach. He criticized the parliament for passing a law mandating gas supply to villages, questioning how this could be achieved when there is no gas available. He went on to say that the “environment, water, soil, and air are our living spaces. If we do not protect these resources, we will leave scorched earth for future generations.” He emphasized that he does not want to hand over scorched earth to the next generations. He further stated that the government sells diesel at a price of 3,000 rials per liter, while abroad, this fuel costs 600,000 rials. He asked, “Where in the world does such a price for diesel exist?” However, he did not mention the obvious fact that Iran, with 208 billion barrels of oil, holds about 18% of the world’s oil reserves and ranks third globally. In terms of natural gas, Iran, with reserves of 1,203 trillion cubic feet (approximately 34 trillion cubic meters), holds about 17.3% of the world’s gas reserves and ranks second globally. Additionally, reports indicate that air pollution has increased significantly due to the burning of mazut in power plants. Meanwhile, Abbas Shahsavani, head of the Air Health Group at the Ministry of Health, announced that 6,939 deaths occur annually in Tehran due to air pollution and mazut burning. He added that this pollution leads to low birth weight in newborns and preterm births. Hadi Ahmadi, a board member of the Pharmacists Association, also announced that there is a disagreement between the Food and Drug Organization and pharmacists regarding the number of scarce medicines. However, they have agreed on 300 items. He added that about 100 medicines, including respiratory sprays and cardiac drugs, have become unavailable. Amidst mazut burning and severe air pollution, health and pharmaceutical problems have also increased. This severely threatens public health, yet the Iranian regime and government officials do nothing but make empty promises. At the same time, they funnel all of Iran’s revenues into their proxy groups and warmongering in the region.
The Spread of Poverty in Iran
Poverty has become one of the biggest social challenges in Iran. Inefficient economic policies, chronic inflation, and unequal income growth are the main factors behind this crisis.
According to reports, the poverty rate in Iran has significantly increased in recent years, with more than one-third of the population now living below the poverty line.
One of the most important reasons for the spread of poverty is high inflation. In recent years, the prices of essential goods and services have increased at a much faster rate than people’s incomes.
Inflation in the housing sector, in particular, has put significant pressure on households. Many families can no longer afford to buy or even rent suitable housing.
Over 80% of Iranian Households Below the Global Poverty LineThis has forced many people to live in extremely difficult conditions and in underprivileged areas. Widespread corruption prevents support programs from reaching those who truly need them. These structural problems have turned poverty from an exception into the norm, making the descent of individuals into lower strata of society a routine occurrence. Despite vast oil resources and natural wealth, Iran has been unable to implement effective policies for equitable wealth distribution. The dimensions of poverty in Iran are not limited to economic issues. Income poverty, which means the inability to meet basic needs such as housing, food, and healthcare, is prevalent, but there are also other aspects such as educational and cultural poverty. Many children are deprived of education because their families cannot afford tuition and related expenses. Another major issue is economic policies that exacerbate poverty instead of reducing it. For example, unjust and inefficient tax policies have increased pressure on the lower income deciles of society. According to available reports, the poverty rate in Iran has surpassed 30% in recent years. However, this figure is based on the regime’s official statistics. Many experts and economists present significantly higher figures than this. In contrast, neighboring countries of Iran show different poverty rates. In the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, the poverty rate is significantly lower. For instance, the poverty rate in Qatar is just 0.4%, while in Saudi Arabia, it stands at 13.6%. These differences reflect the impact of varying economic and social policies in these countries. In Turkey, the poverty rate has decreased in recent years to around 21.3%, thanks to the implementation of economic and social reform programs in the country. These statistics indicate that Iran has a higher poverty rate compared to some neighboring countries. Multiple factors, such as inefficient economic policies, corruption, and unequal resource distribution, may contribute to these differences. According to available reports, Iran holds 209 billion barrels of oil reserves, accounting for about 18% of the world’s oil reserves, ranking third globally after Venezuela and Saudi Arabia. Additionally, Iran possesses 32.5 trillion cubic meters of natural gas reserves, making it the world’s second-largest holder of gas reserves after Russia. The value of Iran’s natural resources is estimated at approximately $27.3 trillion. However, given Iran’s population of approximately 85 million, the share of these natural resources per individual is lower compared to some countries with similar resources.
Iran Faces a Harsh Summer Ahead
Water scarcity has become one of Iran’s main crises. Due to declining rainfall in recent years and mismanagement of water resources, it is predicted that the upcoming summer will pose even more serious challenges in this regard.
Climate change, overexploitation of groundwater resources, and the lack of sustainable planning are among the key factors exacerbating this crisis.
Water consumption naturally increases in the summer. This, combined with declining reservoir levels and the erosion of groundwater tables, puts additional pressure on the limited water resources.
Reservoir water levels in Iran have drastically declined. If reduced rainfall is not compensated by the end of winter, the water supply crisis will worsen. Reports indicate that as of January 12, six dams in the country are holding less than 10% of their capacity.
The volume of water in reservoirs has been reported at only 44% of capacity. Inefficient management of energy resources in Iran has caused numerous problems. Power shortages in the summer have become a perennial issue. This time, experts are warning of water shortages and a challenging summer ahead.
Water Crisis and Air Pollution in Iran: Mismanagement and Environmental ConsequencesAbbas Aliabadi, the Minister of Energy, has described the potential power and water shortages in the upcoming summer as a major problem. He stated that he prays such a crisis does not occur. The spokesperson for the water industry also reported in early January a 33% decrease in rainfall since September 2024. He emphasized that solving the water crisis has become even more challenging than addressing the electricity problem. Statistics show that apart from three provinces, other regions of the country are experiencing reduced rainfall. This situation has also affected major cities, including Tehran. The average fill level of dams around Tehran is reported to be only 19%. Water resources behind dams are expected to be stored for the summer during winter. However, Iran’s dams currently hold less than half of their capacity. Dam outflows have increased by 4%. The reduction in dam reserves is attributed to decreased inflow and poor management. Some government insiders also claim that the previous administration depleted dam reserves. With the start of Masoud Pezeshkian’s administration, some of his associates stated that the previous administration of Ebrahim Raisi (the former president of the regime who died in a helicopter crash) had increased hydroelectric production. This action by the previous government left the new cabinet facing an 8,000-megawatt deficit in hydroelectric energy.
