London, 11 Feb – Donald Trump vowed on the campaign trail to renegotiate the terms of the Iran Deal but what impact will that have on the mullahs’ Regime?
Could it force them to back down and engage in peaceful relations with the rest of the world? Or could they bear down more on their already oppressed people?
Tony Duheaume, an expert in Middle Eastern politics, wrote an op-ed for Al Arabiya assessing that this renegotiation of terms has two possible outcomes.
1. The Regime and its terror organisation, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Force (IRGC), will decide to pursue its nuclear programme, launch more ballistic missile and cause the treaty to collapse
2. The Regime will give up its nuclear programme entirely, in order to access the sanctions relief, which would provide them with lots of money
The first option would end in military action and could be a suicide mission for the Iranian Regime.
However, Duheaume notes that whilst the second option is the one that most will be hoping for, it does not address the fact that the money will not help the Iranian people, but rather line the pockets of the elite and fund terrorism, in the form of the IRGC.
So, the second option buys the Regime credibility in the eyes of the world and enough money to do what they want, while still oppressing their own people and terrorizing other countries.
The IRGC is a powerful force within the country; even more so with the increased defence budget announced recently by the Regime, but how far does their influence spread:
• They control a large amount of the most profitable businesses in Iran
• Their commanders hold many of the seats in Parliament
• They are well known on Iran’s black market: their recruits are able to fly illicit goods in and out of the country without checking by customs officials.
• They even used their control over customs and excise at the docks to set up a smuggling network
• The have huge stakes in the drug industry, despite Iran’s supposedly strict drug laws that see hundreds of non-IRGC members executed each year
The IRGC has already reacted out of fear to the White House’s announcement of putting Iran ‘on notice’, by running massive military drills, launching more ballistic missiles and threatening other Gulf countries, so how will they react to a rewriting of terms? That may likely be worse in the short term, but could spell the beginning of the end of the Iranian Regime.