Mojtaba Khamenei, the Iranian Regime’s supreme leader, said in a message on Saturday, July 11, that revenge for the killing of his father, Ali Khamenei, “will certainly” be taken.
The new Supreme Leader of Iran’s regime, who has not appeared in public since his appointment, wrote in his statement about those responsible for the attack on the Supreme Leader’s residence on February 28: “These criminals, whose names from top to bottom are all on record, will take to their graves the unfulfilled wish of dying peacefully in their beds.”
It was clear that Mojtaba Khamenei’s message, besides serving a domestic purpose by boosting the morale of forces left without a leader, also set the direction of the regime’s foreign policy. That is why, only hours later, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attacked a ship in the Strait of Hormuz and declared the strait closed in defiance of U.S. President Donald Trump’s ultimatum. In practice, a new war has begun.
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So far, it appears that the hardline faction of the regime associated with Mojtaba Khamenei has seized the initiative from the rival faction represented by Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Speaker of the Majlis (parliament), and Masoud Pezeshkian, the regime’s president. This outcome could also be anticipated from the statements and slogans heard during Ali Khamenei’s funeral.
Fars News Agency, affiliated with the IRGC, wrote regarding recent developments: “The enemy is trying to divert the people’s anger over the crimes of America and Israel toward officials and domestic forces in order to create division.” It called on the public to direct their anger toward the main enemy and preserve unity.
Mahmoud Nabavian, deputy chairman of the Majlis National Security Commission, described the previous negotiations as a form of war that, because of optimism and deception by the enemy, turned victories into defeats and left behind a bitter experience.
A few days earlier, the regime also demonstrated its effort to create a barrier against a popular uprising by attacking three ships, despite Mojtaba Khamenei having no justification or pretext for this escalation.
The main question is: Why is Mojtaba Khamenei seeking to ignite a war?
Why did he undermine the agreement by starting this war? Is the regime unaware of the economic and social consequences, the naval blockade, and potential U.S. retaliatory strikes?
To understand why Mojtaba Khamenei, like his father, is pursuing war, it is necessary to understand the current situation of his regime.
– Mojtaba Khamenei makes decisions based on the principle of “preserving the regime” or “ensuring its survival.” By this standard, he accepts the costs of war to keep the regime in power. He believes the regime will not be overthrown by a foreign war and that it is the people who will bear the burden of its consequences.
– The destruction and hardships caused by war increase the suffering of the people. In this way, the regime sinks the population deeper into their daily problems, making the central issue for many people—the overthrow of the regime—less prominent.
– Mojtaba Khamenei believes the only threat to his survival is an organized armed force. Therefore, he seeks to unite his loyalists around two principal slogans: domestically, “Death to the Monafeqin (the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran, PMOI/MEK),” and internationally, “Death to America.” Abandoning either slogan would, in his view, amount to signing the regime’s death warrant.
– During the brief period following the ceasefire and the atmosphere of negotiations and agreement, Mojtaba Khamenei witnessed escalating factional conflict within the regime, growing public readiness for protests, and an expansion of the activities of the Resistance Units. The continuation of these developments threatens the regime’s foundations. It is clear to him that without war and escalation, he cannot preserve the regime’s balance or consolidate his new position as Supreme Leader.
– Therefore, it appears that Mojtaba Khamenei and the ruling faction have concluded that they must be prepared for another war under any circumstances.
Where does Mojtaba Khamenei’s miscalculation lie?
First: He believes that mobilizing crowds into the streets and staging his father’s funeral procession has intimidated the United States and the West.
Second: He believes that this display has intimidated and discouraged Iranian society and that, at least for a time, people will refrain from rising up.
Third: He believed that divisions within the Western camp, particularly between the United States and Europe, would provide him with breathing room. However, all indications suggest that the international community is moving toward a global consensus against the illegitimate regime of the Supreme Leader.
Fourth: Khamenei knows that the only force capable of overthrowing his regime is the Iranian people and the Iranian Resistance. He believes that the extensive demonization campaign carried out against opposition groups such as the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) will prevent Western governments from ever supporting regime change or the Iranian opposition’s proposed alternative.
