London, 1 Aug – Heshmat Alavi, a human rights activist specialising in Iran, wrote an analysis of the Iranian Regime’s aggressive attitude surrounding their ballistic weapons programme for Al Arabiya in which he assessed that despite their posturing, the Iranian Regime is ready to collapse under pressure from the international community and their own people.
Alavi explains that the ever-increasing sanctions put in place by the US for Iran’s violations of UN resolutions, its ballistic missile programmes and human rights violations, along with recent criticism from the UK, France and Germany over a satellite launch are hurting the Regime but the Regime is unlikely to show that just yet.
He wrote: “A logical conclusion would be for Iran is to yield back on its ballistic missile program. Yet this isn’t necessarily the case for Tehran. We are dealing with a completely pragmatic regime, moving its pawns very carefully, with the utmost calculus to the very end.”
Indeed, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Bahram Ghasemi said: “We will continue with full power our missile program.”
There are two main reasons for this:
1) The Mullahs want to appear strong in front of their people, in order to suppress revolutionary fever in the Iranian people
2) They want to increase the stakes on the international community and will not stop until forced to; as was the case with their nuclear programme
Although, Iran claims that the most recent launch was part of a peaceful space programme, their counterparts in Washington, London, Paris, and Berlin knew differently. Iran has long since abandoned their space programme but uses that technology to test rocket launchers for ballistic missiles.
The Iranian Regime is even helping the Houthi terror cell in Yemen to launch ballistic missiles and has constructed a secret, underground ballistic missile factory in Lebanon, currently controlled by Hezbollah.
The Iranian terror squad, the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), have also threatened the safety of US troops and bases in the Middle East; calling for a completely unreasonable 1000km buffer zone around Iran’s borders, effectively having the US withdraw from the Middle East as a whole, and threatening violence if the US does not comply.
So, what now?
Alvai argues that the international community should up the ante on Iran by increasing sanctions without violating the provisions of the nuclear deal themselves.
He wrote: “Despite the new US sanctions restricting and blacklisting the IRGC being long overdue, needed now is for the Trump administration to fully implement such actions against Iran. There is no more room for reservations that have to this day provided Iran paths to bypass and derail international community efforts.”
He continued: “The countries of Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen have suffered the most of Iran’s belligerence, and the full eviction of the IRGC footprints from these states would be the next necessary step forward against Tehran’s regime.”