UPI: There may well be a new Middle East taking shape in the horizon, but it looks nothing like the one envisioned by President Bush. Instead of democracy being the order of the day, there is a real threat of Islamist theocracies, led by Iran, imposing their rule. United Press International
By CLAUDE SALHANI
UPI International Editor
 -- There may well be a new Middle East taking shape in the horizon, but it looks nothing like the one envisioned by President Bush. Instead of democracy being the order of the day, there is a real threat of Islamist theocracies, led by Iran, imposing their rule.
After keeping the West waiting for a reply, Iran let it be known Tuesday that it would continue its nuclear program despite threats of sanctions the United Nations could impose on the Islamic republic.
Iran rejected the Security Council’s demand that it suspend its uranium enrichment activities, vowing instead to push ahead with its nuclear program.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said: “The Islamic Republic of Iran has made its own decision and in the nuclear case, God-willing, with patience and power, will continue its path.”
The announcement came in response to a July 31 Security Council resolution giving Iran 30 days to stop its nuclear activities or face possible economic and diplomatic sanctions.
The Security Council said it had approved Resolution 1696 because it was “seriously concerned that the International Atomic Energy Agency — the IAEA — was still unable to provide assurances about Iran’s undeclared nuclear material and activities after more than three years….”
Iranian officials instead called for negotiations and said they had a “new formula” to resolve the situation. However, since his election to the presidency last year, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has continuously insisted on Iran’s “inalienable” right to develop nuclear capabilities. Developing Iran’s nuclear program and maintaining an Iranian foothold in Iraq have been the two top priorities for Ahmadinejad.
At the same time, Ahmadinejad has ordered that production of Iran’s military arsenal, including missiles, fighter planes and torpedoes, be stepped up. And on Sunday, Iran tested surface-to-surface missiles with a range of up to 155 miles.
The threat of sanctions does not seem to deter Iran’s ruling mullahs, who believe they have an ace or two up their tunics. Those come in the form of Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Syria, who Raymond Tanter, a founding member of the Iran Policy Committee, describes as “the junior varsity member sitting on the bench.”
Here’s how one scenario might play itself out: the Western powers, that is the United States, the European Union and Israel, want to see the deployment of a multinational force in the area of south Lebanon between the Litany River and Israel’s northern frontier. This is what has been called for in the United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, which was unanimously approved earlier this month.
Resolution 1701 calls for the deployment of some 15,000 international troops to back-up 15,000 Lebanese army soldiers, some of whom have already deployed in parts of south Lebanon. But now Resolution 1701, along with any force — foreign or Lebanese – will find itself hostage to the new Islamist alliance composed of Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Syria. So, too, will the 130,000 American troops in Iraq.
This, says Tanter, is the new reality in the Middle East, one that changes the conflict as we know it.
“For all intents and purposes the Arab-Israeli conflict is over,” says Tanter. The dispute between secular Arabs and Israel is one that can eventually be resolved. It revolves around the question of final borders, the right of return of Palestinian refugees, (or some form of compensation instead) and the final status of Jerusalem. Whereas the dispute between the Islamists and Israel, points out Tanter, is a fight to the finish. If current trends continue, meaning that the mullahs remain in power in Iran, Tanter sees a three-phase Iranian plan playing itself out.
Phase one was playing for time so that Iran could build and increase the number of centrifuge machines needed to speed up its nuclear program. “We are already there,” Tanter told United Press International. “This is what links Iran’s nuclear policy with its terror strategy,” said Tanter.
Phase two comes into effect if the United States and the West impose sanctions on Iran. That’s when Iran will be in a position through its proxy militias to hold hostage, not only the U.N. troops in south Lebanon, but also the Lebanese army and the entire peace initiative launched by 1701.
Phase three gets moving if political tension is allowed to escalate. In this case, says Tanter, we are likely to see a repeat performance of what has been a dress rehearsal during the 34-day war between Hezbollah and Israel this past month. Except this time it will be on a wider scale, possibly along the sort of exchanges that took place between Baghdad and Tehran during the Iraq-Iran war. This time the rockets will be flying not only from the north, but from the east as well.
“Now that’s the worst case scenario,” says Tanter, who with his Iran Policy Committee has been petitioning the U.S. government to get the Mujahedeen-E-Khalq — the MeK — off the State Department’s terrorist list. The IPC believes legitimizing the MeK will rattle the saber of regime change over Tehran’s head enough to send a stern message to Tehran.
It remains to be seen if that will work. For the moment, it seems as though Tehran is holding more aces. </p>
</div></div><div class=)
