The head of the Iranian regime’s Chamber of Commerce has reported that Iran’s production has reached its lowest level in the last 36 months. Meanwhile, Mohammad Sahamian-Moghaddam, a member of the board of the Industrial Managers Association of Razavi Khorasan Province, has announced that at least 40% of production capacity has been lost. Tavanir (the Iran Power Generation, Transmission, and Distribution Company) has ordered industries to reduce consumption by 90%.

Samad Hassanzadeh, the head of Iran’s Chamber of Commerce, also emphasized that in July this year, there has been a significant reduction in production in 12 industrial sectors across the country.

Sahamian-Moghaddam told the state-run Ham-Mihan newspaper that on Saturday, August 17, “around 1,000 factories were contacted,” and “there is a recording stating that electricity consumption must be reduced by more than 90% for two weeks; otherwise, due to grid issues, power will be cut off without notice.”

Sahamian-Moghaddam emphasized that this order was issued by Mostafa Rajabi Mashhadi, the CEO of Tavanir, from Tehran. According to him, “By law, they do not have the right to cut off electricity to industries.”

This private sector activist also spoke about the consequences of power outages on Iran’s economy, stating that many export-oriented companies have fallen significantly behind in their export schedules, and many of their export contracts are on the verge of cancellation.

Sahamian-Moghaddam also mentioned the impact of these blackouts on the domestic market, saying, “Some companies are losing their customers, suffering losses, and facing penalties.”

Another impact of the blackouts is on employment. Sahamian-Moghaddam told Ham-Mihan newspaper that some companies have lost employees and are in the process of layoffs, while others have faced equipment failures due to sudden power cuts.

Finally, this private sector activist stressed that in a year when production was supposed to leap forward, “we have already lost at least 40% of our production capacity.“

Experts believe that mismanagement and lack of planning are the main factors behind the imbalance in Iran’s energy sector. The Bushehr nuclear power plant, which took more than two decades to complete, provides only 1.3% of the country’s electricity.

Hashem Oraei, an electrical engineering professor at Sharif University, criticized the mismanagement and “weak planning” in August last year, noting that the combined nuclear, renewable, self-supply, and diesel power plants in Iran “provide only 5% of the country’s electricity.”

In addition to damaging industries and household appliances, power outages are also driving up the prices of some products.

Reza Mohtashamipour, the regime’s Deputy Minister of Industry, Mining, and Trade, announced in a letter to the Minister of Industry, Mines, and Trade in late June this year that the electricity restrictions on industries this summer will intensify, leading to significant disruptions in industries such as steel and cement, ultimately resulting in reduced production and increased prices.

New statistics from the Central Bank indicate a 72% jump in the government’s debt to the Central Bank this June compared to the same month last year.

Furthermore, the total debt of the government and state-owned companies to the Central Bank and other banks in the country surpassed 1.5 quadrillion tomans (approximately $25 billion) this June, which is 37% more than last June.

Of this amount, more than 1.3 quadrillion tomans (approximately $21.6 billion) is related to the government’s debt, while the rest pertains to the debt of state-owned companies to the banking system.

The government’s debt to the banking system is equivalent to six months of the national budget, and it is unclear how the government intends to repay this massive debt.

Moreover, the government’s bank debt is only a small part of its total debt; the National Development Fund also claims more than $100 billion from the government, an amount equivalent to 2.5 years of the national budget.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its spring report stated that the total debt of the Iranian government last year amounted to 28.5% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

This significant increase in the government’s debt to the banking system comes despite the fact that the 13th government, under the presidency of Ebrahim Raisi, had promised at the beginning of its term to stop borrowing from the banking sector to control liquidity and inflation. However, over the past three years, the government’s debt to domestic banks has doubled.

Central Bank statistics show that liquidity in the country surged by 27% in June this year compared to June 2023, reaching an astronomical 8.5 quadrillion tomans (approximately $141.6 billion).

Economic experts have identified uncontrolled liquidity as the main factor behind inflation in Iran.

In recent years, the Iranian government has forced the Central Bank to print unbacked currency to cover budget deficits, enabling it to borrow directly from the Central Bank and other banks. As a result, inflation in Iran has consistently remained above 40% over the past three years, and the value of the national currency has more than halved.

Reports indicate that the Tehran Stock Exchange index once again fell on Tuesday, August 13, dropping to 1,991,000 points.

Over the past 24 days, the overall index has been negatived for 20 days, with the total index declining by 210,000 points, equivalent to more than a 10% drop.

The National Development Fund recently injected 6 trillion rials (approximately 10 million dollars) into the stock market in two separate rounds, but this action failed to prevent the index from declining.

On Tuesday, following a 7,568-point drop in the overall index, Mohammad Reza Farzin, the Governor of the Central Bank, announced that in today’s Supreme Council of the Stock Exchange meeting, it was agreed that support from the banking system for the capital market would begin on Wednesday.

He did not explain exactly what measures the banking system would take to “support” the stock market or why the recent financial interventions by the National Development Fund have not helped the stock market’s situation.

Earlier, the Stock Exchange Organization had requested the creation of a credit line or the deposit of at least 500 trillion rials (approximately 833.33 million dollars) into the stock market.

Estimates show that nearly 50 trillion rials (approximately 83.33 million dollars) of real money has exited the stock market in just the past two weeks. The largest capital flight from this market occurred on July 31, following the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and the subsequent threats of retaliation by the Iranian regime the following day.

With reports circulating about the possible “definitive decision” by the Iranian regime to attack Israel, nearly 12 trillion rials (approximately 20 million dollars) exited the stock market again on August 12.

The drop in the stock index and the outflow of real money from the market means significant losses for individuals who, for whatever reason, have been unwilling to sell the shares they purchased.

The fluctuations in the stock index over the past few years have followed an unusual pattern. For example, during the economic crisis and the decline in Iran’s GDP, the stock index rose from 500,000 points in mid-March 2020 to 2.5 million points in the spring of last year.

Some experts have reported deliberate manipulation of the stock market by the government, a claim that both the twelfth and thirteenth administrations have denied.