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Iran’s Presidential Election, a Step Beyond Electoral Engineering

Pooya Stone
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Iran’s Presidential Election, a Step Beyond Electoral Engineering

One of the most important issues now in Iran’s political field is the upcoming presidential election. Iran experts say that more than ever, Iran’s clerical rulers fear the results and consequences of the elections.

The reason is that the regime in the last two to three years has experienced very hard blows through the people’s protests. One of its consequences, as officials have confessed, is the non-participation of the people in the elections and the people’s distrust of the regime which can lead to its overthrow.

Now the people have found the courage which is increasing day by day to oppose the regime in public and call this election a sham-election which is not free. The situation for the regime is so murky that even many of its officials stand opposed to it too.

So, to create a balance Iran’s Supreme leader Ali Khamenei was forced to came to the stage and announce that, “Do not always say that elections should be free; We had 34 elections since the beginning of the revolution, which one was not free?”

In reality, however, the post of President is in conflict with the post of the Supreme Leader, and to neutralize this position and having the upper hand like in the past 40 years, Khamenei once again commissioned the super reactionary Guardian Council, to take control over the presidential candidates, and remove those from the list who are not synchronized with the regime’s principles, which the most important is to be loyal to the supreme leader.

On May 8, 2021 the Guardian Council announced:

“If the Guardian Council finds that even after the qualification something happened before the election, which is the reason for the disqualification, it is the Guardian Council’s legal right to reconsider that person, so it does not matter, and it is possible that someone in the previous period after the qualification, and in the debate and non-debate, as well as during the propaganda, did things that are now in this period, when his case is reviewed, see those things, were things that are unqualified, whether related to the past or to this period, so it is the Guardian Council’s oversight right to reconsider the competence of that person.” (Entekhab, May 8, 2021)

The easy translation of these sentence is that the blade of the Guardian Council is all the time on the neck of the candidates.

One of the state-run outlets mocked this situation and wrote: “With this explanation, the election debates will become a TV show, because any talk may lead to disqualification.” (Shargh, May 8, 2021)

Then a government lawyer attacked the unlimited and unrestrained power of this Council and said:

“When the Guardian Council such a free hand, and has taken over the election, and it has become the law at all, the best thing to do to speed up the election and save the nation all the time and money, at the election day, do not put any ballot box anywhere except at the Guardian Council’s place.

“All twelve respectable men of the Guardian Council cast their ballots in the same ballot box. The person who gets the most votes in that ballot box becomes the president. In less than 15 minutes, everything starts and ends without wasting any time or money, and easily it become what you want it to be. And the people will not get bother either.” (Setareh-e-Sobh, May 8, 2021)

Although this may sound ironic, it is the truth. For more than four decades, this mechanism in Iran has determined the fate of the election. Because in Iran, elections in the common and well-known sense like in democratic systems have never been valid. The ‘election’ is a cover for the engineering of the power structure controlled by the supreme leader.

But the final and real thought of the regime is accumulated in these sentences expressed by cleric Mohammad-Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi who died earlier this year:

“If there has been talk of elections in the Islamic Republic so far, it is because the Supreme Leader has considered it useful to hold elections now and to get the opinion of the people. The supreme leader has the right and can choose any other type of government whenever he wants and deems expedient, in which he may not refer to the people’s vote at all. The legitimacy of the government is not only subject to the vote and consent of the nation, but also the vote of the nation has no effect on its credibility.” (Partoo weekly, December 28, 2005)

Iran: Supreme Leader’s Initiatives for Presidential Election

Jubin Katiraie
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Iran: Supreme Leader’s Initiatives for Presidential Election

Today, the Islamic Republic system in Iran faces critical and backbreaking challenges that it has never before experienced. The government wrestles with unprecedented economic dilemmas, and the coronavirus outbreak claims more lives each day in addition to its financial, social, and political consequences.

These crises along with numerous catastrophes in almost all fields have severely intensified the gap between the state and society while officials and state-run media frequently warn about the upcoming protests. In such circumstances, the ayatollahs intend to hold another Presidential election on June 18.

“The people’s frustration has deeper roots in this status quo. However, political movements analyze and make decisions regardless of these roots, and this distance is getting deeper between politicians and people. This distance would be deeper with political gestures,” wrote the state-run Ebtekar daily on April 6.

In other words, the people have grasped that current politicians cannot change their living conditions and resolve their complicated difficulties. Instead, they are adding insult to society’s injuries and thereby pushing citizens to think about solutions beyond the Islamic Republic system.

The ayatollahs’ 42-year reign has shown that they could not and cannot afford to bring prosperity and welfare to Iran’s 83-million population. In this regard, there is an ongoing struggle between citizens, particularly the young generation, and rulers for fundamental rights like freedom of speech, equality, justice, and a fair and democratic election.

In Iran, the Supreme Leader has the final word. In 2009, former President Mohammad Khatami described the President in Iran as a waiter reminding the current Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s efforts to expand the president’s power when Khamenei himself was the president.

Nonetheless, to prevent potential protests, Khamenei intend to remove ‘reformists,’ ‘moderates,’ or anything else they call themselves from power. During their protests in January 2018, November 2019, and January 2020, citizens openly chanted the slogan, “Reformists, Principalists, the game is over” showing their disappointment over the current political divisions.

“The election must symbolize the national unity, not duality, division, and bipolarity,” Khamenei said in his recent remarks on March 21 revealing his intention to nip any competition in the bud. Following his remarks, Khamenei’s faction launched a comprehensive campaign to stifle the rivals, and in some cases, the Supreme Leader personally ran this campaign.

Majlis Paves the Path for Khamenei’s Desired Figure

On December 20, 2020, the official IRNA news agency reported, “Members of the Parliament [Majlis] rejected a proposal for banning military individuals from running for the [Presidential] election.”

“The constitution has allowed all armed forces members to register for the Presidential election without resignation,” IRNA quoted the Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf as saying. “The object of interference in political issues and candidacy for the election are two different topics.”

Notably, before the death of Qassem Soleimani, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force (IRGC-QF) chief, in a US drone attack in Iraq, Khamenei had dreamed to appoint him as a the most loyal president to himself, Iran analysts say. However, the U.S. January 3, 2020, drone strike changed the puzzle completely forcing Khamenei to think about other options.

Observers recently speak about Hossein Dehghan, the Supreme Leader’s military advisor, Ghalibaf, Saeed Jalili, the former Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) secretary, and Saeed Mohammad, the former IRGC’s Khatam al-Anbiya Construction Headquarters chief, Rostam Ghasemi, another former Khatam al-Anbiya chief, and Mohsen Rezaei, the former IRGC commander-in-chief as potential future presidents.

All these military commanders, of course, had taken out their fatigues long while ago fearing a public backlash. However, the Khamenei-controlled Majlis has left the gate open for more military individuals, particularly IRGC commanders, to participate in the June 18 Presidential election.

Khamenei Personally Ousts Potential Rivals

Hassan Khomeini Announces Dissuasion from Candidacy in June Election

Furthermore, the Supreme Leader has personally convinced one potential candidate not to engage in the Presidential competition. On April 12, Tasnim news agency affiliated with the IRGC-QF reported, “Seyyed Hassan Khomeini would not be a candidate for the 2021 election.”

In recent months, ‘reformists’ had raised the name of the Islamic Republic founder’s grandson Hassan Khomeini as their main candidate. They believed that he could unify ‘reformist front’ due to his title. However, Khamenei personally spoke with him urging him not to run for the election.

“The [Islamic] Revolution’s Supreme Leader considered that [Khomeini’s] candidacy in the election was not appropriate. He expressed that he counts Hassan as his son asking him not to enter this field in such circumstances,” said Yasser Khomeini, Hassan’s brother.

Zarif’s Audiotape Removed Him from Election in Advance

On April 5, the leaked audiotape of Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif’s interview with state-affiliated journalist Saeed Leylaz shocked both the people inside and his counterparties abroad. In his interview, the Foreign Minister had openly declared his opposition to the Islamic Republic’s regional path.

He also admitted that Khamenei was the main orchestrator for nuclear talks laying all the blames on him. Already, Khamenei was beholden behind the curtains leaving the way open to criticize and breaches nuclear obligations. However, Zarif highlighted the role of the Supreme Leader and the IRGC eluding himself from nuclear talks’ consequences.

Just a few hours before leaking the tape, Zarif had sarcastically announced his dissuasion from the Presidential election in a letter to Khamenei. He had warned about pressure led by Khamenei’s faction, saying, “I’m not concerned about getting low votes… I do not intend to run for Presidency, but I may revise my decision if the pressure increased.”

In response, Khamenei severely chastised Zarif and all but barred him from running in the Presidential competition. “These days, we heard some remarks on behalf of some officials, which are surprising and unfortunate. I heard that enemy’s media had aired these remarks… Some of these remarks are the repetition of our enemies’ words,” he said.

“For years, the Americans have been extremely unhappy about the Islamic Republic’s influence in the region. They were upset from the Quds Forces’ activities, and they killed Soleimani for this reason… Dividing diplomacy form the country’s other policies is a great mistake, which should not be made by an Islamic Republic official,” Khamenei added addressing Zarif’s remarks about Soleimani’s destructive role in foreign policies and “spending diplomacy on the field.”

Khamenei-Controlled Guardian Council Purges Other Candidates

Meanwhile, the Guardian Council completed this path and almost purged less-known candidates paving the path for Khamenei’s desirable figure. In its recent directive about candidates’ conditions, the council has announced that Presidential candidates must be neither less than 40 nor above 75 years old, meaning 39-year-old Mohammad-Javad Azari Jahromi, the current Minister of Information and Communications Technology, and 80-year-old Mohammad Gharazi, the former Minister of Petroleum, cannot run for the Presidency.

Also, the council has emphasized that candidates should enjoy a sufficient managerial background, and they should not have criminal convictions. Therefore, Saeed Mohammad—for the lack of managerial records—and Mostafa Tajzadeh—for his criminal conviction in 2009—were purged.

Who Is Khamenei’s Required President?

Already, observers thought Saeed Mohammad is Khamenei’s required candidate and potential president due to the Supreme Leader’s previous comments about the establishment of a “young and hezbollahi government.” Khamenei, of course, declared his intention more bluntly by pointing to Qassem Soleimani’s method and iconic role.

However, following Mohammad’s resignation from the IRGC Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters, the IRGC deputy for political affairs Yadollah Javani revealed that Mohammad had actually been fired due to his corruption cases. To save face, Mohammad rejected Javani’s remarks bringing the rivalries to new levels.

Eventually, in an interview with the IRGC-controlled Fars news agency, the Supreme Leader’s Representative for the IRGC Abdollah Haji Sadeqi approved Javani’s position. “Javani has raised the opinion of the IRGC supreme commandership—an indirect mention to Khamenei and not even the IRGC commander-in-chief Hossein Salami,” said Haji Sadeqi.

On the other hand, Khamenei’s loyalists in the Majlis and colleges launched two separate campaigns inviting Judiciary Chief Ebrahim Raisi to run for the Presidency. “In a letter to the Ayatollah Raisi, more than 220 MPs invited the Judiciary Chief to register for the Presidential election due to the country’s dire economic, political, social, and cultural conditions and his executive records for taking office,” Fars reported on April 26.

MPs’ letter sent two messages to both Khamenei’s supporters and opponents. They obviously acknowledged his supporters that Khamenei’s required candidate is Ebrahim Raisi, not Ghalibaf, Mohammad, Rostami, or Jalili. MPs also clarified that Khamenei would no longer step back from Raisi as the president.

A day later, Fars once again reported, “More than 2,000 professors, student activists, and graduates—affiliated with the IRGC and Basij paramilitary forces—joined the campaign for the invitation of Raisi to run for the 2021 Presidential election.”

Furthermore, other principalists’ candidates like Speaker Ghalibaf have announced that they would withdraw from the Presidential competition if Raisi announced his candidacy. In the previous Presidential election, Ghalibaf withdrew in favor of Raisi.

Why Has Raisi Not Announced He Is Running for Election Yet?

Raisi is known as one of the most notorious judges in Iran for his role in the mass killing of thousands of political prisoners in 1988. In May 2017, he tried his chance but failed despite Khamenei and the IRGC’s support. He is also a potential candidate for replacing Khamenei as Supreme Leader.

In this respect, the issue is not too easy. Raisi started his provincial trips some while ago, which is considered as an unannounced action for a Presidential candidacy. However, Raisi still refuses to announce his candidacy formally.

Observers believe that he is concerned about another public apathy as the government experienced in the February 2020 Parliamentary elections. In this context, Raisi prefers to hold the Judiciary Chief post rather than betting on a dead horse and tarnishing his reputation on the cusp of the death of Khamenei and taking the Supreme Leader’s office.

In other words, Raisi would not run in the election without necessary guarantees by Khamenei and IRGC ensuring a significant victory for him. However, the upcoming developments inside Iran and abroad may motivate Raisi and may persuade Khamenei to look for another figure. It all depends on the time.

European Intelligence Shows Iran’s Pursuit of Nukes

Mehdi Hosseini
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European Intelligence Shows Iran’s Pursuit of Nukes

Iran has repeatedly tried to develop business contacts in the developed world with the intention of getting equipment and knowledge that could be used to further their nuclear program or even develop weapons of mass destruction, according to intelligence reports from Germany, Sweden, and the Netherlands, which all highlighted incidents from 2020.

Yes, despite the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which was designed to stop Iran from continuing its nuclear program, Tehran has barrelled ahead, proving what the Resistance said from the start, that the JCPOA was nowhere near comprehensive enough to deal with the Tehran’s malign behaviour.

The German report said that Iran is “making efforts to expand their conventional arsenal of weapons through the production or constant modernization of weapons of mass destruction”, while the  Swedish report accuses Tehran of industrial espionage against “Swedish hi-tech industry and Swedish products, which can be used in nuclear weapons programs”.

The Iranian Resistance wrote: “This surely comes as no surprise to the early critics of the deal, who anticipated that it would prompt Iranian authorities to scale back certain nuclear activities that were subject to international scrutiny while stepping up those that would allow the regime to secretly advance its capabilities in other areas.”

But the situation may be worse than expected if we look at comments by the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Ali Akbar Salehi, who said in January 2019 that Tehran lied about deactivating the Arak heavy water facility and ensured that the government would be able to quickly ramp up uranium enrichment if needed, which they subsequently did. The problem is compounded by the fact that the International Atomic Energy Agency has not been able to fully monitor the nuclear activity taking place.

So, why, oh why, are the Europeans so keen to restore the deal by getting the US to re-join and drop sanctions on Iran?

The Resistance wrote: “There can be no justification for returning to the JCPOA as written. The US, Britain, France, and Germany must all recognize that the prior enforcement mechanisms were not sufficient for dealing with a regime that has no interest in cooperating with its interlocutors or voluntarily restraining its own behaviour. At every turn, the leadership of the Iranian regime must be compelled to change that behaviour, whether by complying with specified enrichment limits or by accepting snap inspections of all suspected nuclear sites or by halting its procurement efforts in the West.”

On May 12, Reuters wrote that the Iranian regime has enriched uranium to up to 63% purity, according to the IAEA, which is clear breach of its JCPOA obligations.

“Fluctuations” at Iran’s Natanz plant pushed the purity to which it enriched uranium to 63%, higher than the announced 60% that complicated talks to revive its nuclear deal with world powers, a report by the U.N. nuclear watchdog said on Tuesday.” (Reuters, May 12)

Warning the government Mojtaba Zolnour, Chairman of the Parliamentary Security Commission said that the extension of the Agency’s inspection is subject to the opinion of the Parliament or the Supreme National Security Council. Which is a clear sign that the Iranian regime is on the path to cancel and prevent the IAEA’s inspection, to continue its illegal nuclear program without any barriers.

“Araqchi’s statement was wrong, the extension of the inspection and the agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency is not in the hands of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Atomic Energy Organization, this should be done with the opinion of the parliament or within the framework of the law strategic action to lift sanctions, and it is done with the discretion of the Supreme National Security Council.” (Mojtaba Zolnour, May 12, 2021)

Iran Protests Continue on Sunday

Hoshang Amiri
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Iran Protests Continue on Sunday

Protests by people from all social classes, all employment sectors, and all age ranges are continuing to be seen across Iran, as the public are outraged by both the authorieties’ general failure to improve the lot of the people and its issues surrounding the Covid-19 pandemic.

On Sunday, May 9, alone, there were at least three major protests, all featuring very simple demands that should not take a lot of effort to meet.

Retirees of the Social Security Organization held nationwide protests in a dozen cities to demand that their pensions be adjusted in line with inflation. They’ve been holding protests – sometimes twice weekly – for a few months now over officials’ corruption and failure to address their needs.

They chanted:

  • “Imprisoned worker should be freed”
  • “We won’t vote any more, we’ve heard too many lies”
  • “We suffer from injustice and Covid-19, no one cares about us”
  • “Retirees, stand up again injustice and oppression”

While newly-graduated “green record” teachers rallied outside the parliament to protest their continued unemployment and the false promises of officials in this matter. To have a “green record” means that the teachers achieved a high level of qualification and academic rank.

Students also protested in over a dozen cities because the government is insisting on students taking in-person exams, as opposed to online ones, during the pandemic. The authorities have failed to prevent these protests even though they sent threatening text messages to students and parents.

Ever since the pandemic came to Iran in January 2020,  officials have used it to suppress the people’s protests through a deliberate failure to suppress the virus, which explains why Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei called the coronavirus a “blessing”. Given that the pandemic came so shortly after the November 2019 protests that shook the regime to its core, it’s no surprise that the mullahs wanted to use any opportunity to stop people from gathering.

Despite all the mullahs’ efforts, protests have increased over the past four months, both in size and scale. More and more sectors are coming out on a weekly basis from defrauded investors to workers to parents. There is no sign of this slowing down at any time in the future.

The Iranian Resistance wrote: “Khamenei and his regime are witnessing these intensifying protests. But they can neither completely oppress them, as this will intensify protests due to the society’s explosiveness; nor the regime can refuse to oppress these protests, as they would spread rapidly. The regime’s deadlock in dealing with these protests has caused protests to continue and intensify.”

Update:

On Tuesday, May 11, a group of teachers in Fars province gathered in front of the General Directorate of Education in Fars to protest the non-achieved demands of educators. And in-line with them, the teachers in Zarrinshahr, Isfahan, protested in front of the General Directorate of Education for the demands of the educators. These teachers want the full implementation of the ranking scheme.

And Izeh students gathered in front of the city’s education department to protest the holding of face-to-face exams. Students in Shiraz protested the holding of year-end exams in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, too. These protests are continuing for several days.

Rouhani’s COVID Lie

Pooya Stone
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Rouhani’s COVID Lie

The coronavirus pandemic in Iran rages on, killing far more people than necessary, and all because the mullahs failed to take the appropriate measures at any stage. Yet still, the mullahs, including President Hassan Rouhani, continue to lie about the pandemic to justify their inaction regarding lockdowns and vaccinations.

It’s not that Rouhani and the rest of the officials are unaware of the national demand for free and effective vaccines, which have already been rolled about to vast swathes of the adult population in many countries, but they have certainly created a rod for their own backs about it over the past few months.

They’d already refused to buy any vaccines in January, but Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei banned the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, which meant that shipments sent over by a charity were wasted. He claimed that the pharmaceutical countries wanted to test the drugs on Iranians, even though both were already being administered to the general public in the US and UK, with President Joe Biden and Queen Elizabeth having already been vaccinated. Then, Rouhani spoke about a domestic vaccine that would be available at some point in the next two years and was laughed off by medical experts.

So, what now? Well, the government seems to be more aware that a failure to vaccinate the population could increase the people’s anger and lead to protests that would sweep them from power, so they’ve backtracked a little and Rouhani even said that “the first vaccine is the best” as if there was a choice of vaccines for the public.

One might question how much he believes in what he says when neighbouring countries began their vaccination process at the start of 2021 when Rouhani questioned vaccine effectiveness, and the government has still failed to import World Health Organisation-approved vaccines. One might even wonder if the vaccines will reach Iranians when even the state-run Arman daily reports that the officials are allowing “mafias” to import the vaccines in a likely embezzlement scam.

Food and Drug Organization spokesperson Kianoush Jahanpour said on May 2: “Four-dollar vaccines are sold at $50, and $10 vaccines are imported at $25-70… Many companies that import vaccines do not work in the field of vaccines at all.”

The state-run Aftab-e Yazd daily wrote that the vaccines are being “monopolized” and that the country faces a “phenomenon called ‘vaccine smuggling’”.

And even worse, now you can find the vaccine on the black market. The state-rund daily Donya-e-Eghtesad on May 11 wrote: “The vaccine is available on the black market, but it is not clear whether this vaccine is real or not, the customer must trust and pay a thousand euros for the Russian vaccine.
According to this report and quoted by the pharmacists of the Nasser Khosrow street, it is said that the Chinese vaccine will be available in 10 days.

“Iran has 8,574 kilometers of border with 7 countries, and this has caused everything that is offered to the European market, the United States or even the Far East to be available in the Iranian market 48 hours later.

“According to field observations, the price of two doses of Russian vaccine in Iran is one thousand euros and they do not accept its equivalent in Rials. There is no guarantee as to whether this vaccine is genuine or not.”

The Iranian Resistance wrote: “The reality is that people are losing their lives during the Covid-19 fourth wave, and there are no vaccines. The private sector, rather the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) front companies and state-linked mafias, are about to import Covid-19 vaccines, sell them in the free market. In other words, trade vaccine with Iranian people’s blood.”

Iran Regime’s Blackmail for JCPOA Negotiations

Shahin Mahmoudi
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Iran Regime’s Blackmail for JCPOA Negotiations

These days around the Iranian nuclear program, all eyes are on Vienna, a city where direct or indirect negotiations are being held between Iran and the United States, along with major world powers. The Iranian government is seeking to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement (JCPOA) at any price.

Iran’s hardliners are pretending that the negotiations are not by the orders of the regime’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei. But Iran experts say Khamenei himself is directing the entire nuclear projects, including all events and negotiations around this case.

Because for his regime this is one of the two wings of the continuation of its existence, beside its support of global terrorism which is aligned with its internal repression.

This became clear when the regime’s supreme leader stamped this fact, after the revelation of the regime’s foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif tape and warned him and the entire government: “Foreign policy is not set by the foreign ministry anywhere in the world. All over the world, it is up to the superiors and high-ranking officials to make the decisions. Of course, the foreign ministry is also involved. But it is just the executor.”

Defending the regime’s global terrorism and the killed Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani, which is the main tool for its harmful actions overboard, he added: “The Quds Force is the biggest factor in preventing passive diplomacy in West Asia. Man feels sorry when he hears these (attacking the foreign minister Javad Zarif).”

He continued: “Some of these speeches are repetitions of American speeches. Americans have been deeply saddened by the Islamic Republic’s influence for years. They were angry about Martyr Soleimani because of this and because of this he was martyred.”

The question here is why we are repeating this facts and speeches again. The truth is that the Iranian regime since the US President Joe Biden’s presidency has committed more than 200 hundred attacks against the US troops mainly in Iraq and Afghanistan with the help of its proxy forces.

And it seems that these attacks are intensifying after the new round of the JCPOA negotiations. And as we know, over the last 40 years this regime has solved every of its crises with its terror lever, to impose its demands and goals.

Below is a partial list of the regime’s latest attacks against the US troops and bases in Iraq fulfilled by its proxy groups, reported by the regime’s media. The amazing thing is that many times even further the Iraqi media and other international media, the regime’s media have reported these attacks.

State-run daily Khabar Fori, May 8: “Some news sources reported on Saturday morning that a rocket attack has hit the US base in Ain al-Assad in Iraq’s Anbar province. The base is home to US terrorist forces, and initial reports indicate that a missile warning siren sounded at the base. News sources reported that the C-RAM and Patriot missile defense systems recently installed at the base failed to intercept and destroy the rockets.”

State-run website Karg News Agency, May 5: “Following the rocket attack on the Ain al-Assad base in western Iraq, US forces took unprecedented security measures at the base. Ain al-Assad air base in Iraq, where US forces are based, was targeted by a missile yesterday.”

IRNA news agency, May 4: “Iraqi sources reported that the Iraqi Ain al-Assad base was targeted by several rockets an hour ago. Yesterday, Balad base was attacked with 10 rockets. An hour ago, an explosion took place in the American military equipment loading area on the Kuwaiti border, which, according to published images, caused extensive damage to the occupiers’ equipment.”

IRNA, May 4: “Iraqi news sources reported an attack on a US military logistics convoy on the road leading to Iraq’s occupied Ain al-Assad base.
“According to IRNA on Thursday night, this attack with a developed bomb was against a convoy carrying US missiles and military equipment. Saberin News wrote that the group of Ashab al-Kahf claimed responsibility for the attack. Attacks on US military convoys in Iraq have intensified in recent weeks, with some Iraqi anti-occupation groups announcing they will continue their attacks as long as their country is under US occupation.”

ISNA news agency, May 4: “The Iraqi army’s security unit affiliated with the Iraqi army by issuing a statement that four Katyusha rockets hit the Balad air base and announced the operation of identifying its terrorist elements.”

ISNA news agency, May 3: “Iraqi security sources reported on Sunday night that two rockets had been fired at a US military base near Baghdad International Airport.”

Mehr news agency, May 2: “News sources reported Sunday evening that a rocket had hit a US military base near Baghdad airport. According to the report, the ‘Victoria’ military base near Baghdad airport, where the American occupying forces are present, was hit by several rockets. At least three rockets are said to have hit the Victoria military base.”

Fars news agency, April 28: “An unnamed Iraqi group claimed responsibility for a drone strike on Balad Air Base, 64 km north of Baghdad. According to the Saberin News Telegram Channel, the statement said: ‘In the name of the Lord of the Mojahedin and with the blessing of the birth of our Master Imam Hassan Mojtaba, peace be upon him, the American military branch stationed at Balad Air Force Base was recently targeted by a drone.’”

Mashregh News, April 23: “News sources announced that at least 3 rocket missiles hit American Victoria base near Baghdad airport in the Iraqi capital.”

Iran Press news agency, April 18: “Some Iraqi sources reported that two people were wounded in a rocket attack on Balad Air Base, a US military base in Iraq’s Salah al-Din province. In the past few days, more than 20 US logistics convoys have been attacked in various parts of Iraq, including the US base near Erbil Airport and the Ain al-Assad base in Anbar province. US convoys and military bases in Iraq have been targeted several times in recent months.”

Mehr news agency, April 16: “News sources reported that the Ain al-Assad air base in Iraq’s Anbar province was targeted.
The Saber News Channel, which broadcasts military news about the US occupation of Iraq, reported that the base had been targeted by three UAVs.”

State-run website Khabar Fori, April 15: “According to Iraqi sources, the ‘Ain al-Assad’ base, the base of the American occupying forces in the Iraqi province of Al-Anbar, has been targeted by rockets.”

State-run news agency IRNA, April 9: “According to IRNA, following the increase in threats regarding the targeting of American bases in Iraq, in addition to the full readiness of the occupiers; The Iraqi security forces have also increased their level of monitoring and preparedness.

“The Nas news agency close to the Iraqi government reported: following the efforts of the Iraqi security forces with field monitoring and intensification of intelligence efforts, one of the patrols at 20:00 on Thursday night in the ‘Al-Jazeera’ area of ​​Al-Anbar province saw a suspicious vehicle that it was a short distance from the road east of the Ain al-Assad base.

“According to the Iraqi security headquarters, the security patrol searched the vehicle and found a launcher and 24 missiles, then an engineering unit was called to the scene to neutralize and deactivate the missiles.”

Fars new agency, April 7: “A US military logistics convoy was targeted in western Iraq. The Saberin News channel reported Wednesday that the convoy was targeted in the area between Salah al-Din and Al-Anbar provinces. This is the fourth US military logistics convoy to be targeted.”

Nasir News, April 4: “Attack on a US military support convoy in Diwaniyah, Iraq. The attack on the US support convoy in Diwaniyah province was claimed by the armed group ‘Ashab al-Kahf’, but no group has claimed responsibility for the rocket attack on Balad base as of this writing.”

IRNA news agency, March 18: “A newly formed Iraqi group that announced its existence last night (Wednesday) claimed responsibility for two attacks on military support convoys of the occupying US army and the ‘Ain al-Assad’ base. The Iraqi group, dubbed the ‘Khyber Brigade’, today (Thursday) issued a short statement and video of its attacks, claiming responsibility for the recent attacks on a convoy and US military base on Iraqi soil.”

The Faulty Cycle of Iran’s Social Security and Poor Situation of Workers and Retirees

Pooya Stone
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The Faulty Cycle of Iran’s Social Security and Poor Situation of Workers and Retirees

Workers in Iran have experienced difficult living conditions in recent years. Low purchasing power in the face of staggering inflation, declining wage earners’ living standards, and loss of employment opportunities are the main indicators of the hardships of workers and wage earners. In such a situation, why should a worker in Iran hope that the situation will improve with the presidential election and the coming to power of a new government?

Experience has showed that nothing will change, and the general relations of the economy must change at a level beyond the government in order for the situation to improve. Which means that the extreme corruption in Iran’s government must be solved.

The situation of the labor force can be defined and read in the context of a set of economic variables, and if these variables are not corrected, there is no hope for lasting reform. The economy has long been in a state of decline and recession. ‘Recession’ is equivalent to reducing investment and employment and reducing the level of production of enterprises and affects factors of production, including labor. The first effect is rising unemployment and wage problems, which is why wages have long been ‘undesirable.’

TRecession is worse and deadlier for the poor than the rich, and inflation is the killer of wage earners. The combination of these factors leads to economic and livelihood losses for workers. Iran is involved with the coronavirus for more than a year and a half. And corruption has become one of the main pillars in Iran’s economy, without any hope of change.

For this reason, the ’employment focus’ has distanced itself from the economic goals of governments. Governments have not talked about meaningful job creation for years. These issues have piled up and the situation has reached the position which we are witnessing today. Correcting this situation is not so simple and even more impossible.

The fact is that the Statistics Center of Iran does not provide accurate statistics. We do not have accurate information on the components that affect the life and livelihood of the working class. Inflation statistics are a small part of it. We do not have accurate statistics on labor market components such as the exact unemployment rate and the employment rate of workers.

All we know is: Unemployment insurance and unemployment insurance claimants have increased significantly. So, Iran’s economy needs sustainable and fruitful changes to solve macroeconomic problems related to national production, employment, and domestic investment.

The workforce is affected by these variables; Both employees and retirees, and of course the reduction in the employment rate, will also harm the Social Security Organization, as the organization’s inputs will be greatly reduced, and this will exacerbate the crisis in the organization.

When the Social Security Organization is harmed, retirees are harmed again because their insurance and medical obligations are disrupted. This vicious cycle continues, and wage earners suffer again and again.

Iran’s economy has become a sick economy. While the government is insisting on the continuation of its nuclear program, so paralleling to this the sanctions are continuing and has increased the expenses but reduced the income, meaning that the government had to pay rent to meet the basic needs.

So, the government lost from both expensive imports and cheap exports, and between these, Iran’s rule is not at an economic winning position and is losing day by day its benefits, which is the reason of it begging for the JCPOA (Iran nuclear deal) negotiations.

For two or three years, with inflation of 35% and 40%, the low-income classes, female-headed households, minimum and sub-minimum waged workers, and the unemployed were exposed to severe cultural, economic, and social damage. These injuries have been comprehensive and efficient.

Workers were forced to live on salaries approved by the Supreme Labor Council, which have nothing to do with the inflated living incomes, resulting in problems in all sectors, including housing, treatment, education and even food, and are to cut from their living costs day by day.

And an important point about Iran: wherever we have had rampant inflation, we have seen the poor get poorer and the rich get richer. Inflation seems to act as a reversal flow of the economic shift from the poor to the rich, increasing the Gini coefficient. Of course, lately we no longer know what the Gini coefficient in Iran really is and how much inequality we have.

We are just sure that inequality has increased month by month and year by year, which is a very serious and significant alarm for the rule in Iran who is fearing people’s upcoming escalation and protests against the government, like the gasoline price hike in November 2019.

Lies About an Industrial Boom in Iran

Jubin Katiraie
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Lies About an Industrial Boom in Iran

In a ridiculous manner, Iran’s Minister of Industry, Mines and Trade said that the country witnessed seven percent industrial growth, while even the most developed countries in the world did not claim such a thing, especially at a time when the coronavirus epidemic has hurt many industries.

Now the question is, while we are witnessing a very low economic growth and the dollar price which is now 24,000 tomans, which is a large figure for Iran’s stressed industries, how can the regime’s government and especially its minister can make such a claim. It should be noted that previously the regime’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei claimed that Iran is ranked 18th in the table of the developed countries which led to many ridicules on the social media.

Below is an interview with the title, ‘95% of people are not able to increase consumption’ and published by the state-run news agency ILNA about this subject with an economic expert of the regime Ehsan Soltani.

Q: “Is it possible to extract positive growth in the field of industry from the economic conditions of Iran?

A: “We must first keep in mind that the irrational increase in the exchange rate is done to protect the interests of rent-seeking enterprises. The figures I refer to here are based on exporting countries. In 2011, we had $56 billion in imports of food, raw materials and intermediates and capital goods. Only $32 billion of that was industrial raw materials.

“Sanctions have been easing ever since, but before the start of the raise of the exchange rate, that figure reached $48 billion, of which $25 billion is industrial raw materials. In 2019, the import of food, raw materials, intermediate goods, and capital reached $30 billion, and the share of raw materials decreased from $25 billion to $15 billion.

“Definitely this statistic has decreased in 2020 as well. According to the statistics we obtained, in 2020, compared to 2017, the import of raw materials and industrial parts has halved. So, what has happened is that the volume of Iran’s industrial production has decreased in three years, but some give statistics that Iran’s industrial production has increased by 7% in the first nine months of last year!”

About the people’s decrease in purchase power, he added:

“On the other hand, we are seeing an increase in stock because people do not have the purchasing power. This means that consumption is not increasing. According to statistics, 2.98 million tons of steel ingots were traded on the stock exchange from November 3, 2020 to April 3, 2021, i.e., a period of five months, of which 1.67 million tons were traded and the rest were not sold. This means there was a reduction in the volume of transactions.

“These statistics show that what has happened in the Iranian economy is a significant reduction in the level of purchasing power. On the other hand, exports have not grown, and workers’ wages have not increased in line with rising prices.”

Q: “The Ministry of Industry, Mines and Trade claims that it was able to save at least 1,500 stagnant industrial units in 2020 and even exceeded its previous pointed target. What is your impression?

A: “The central bank does not publish statistics and publishes a set of general and selected statistics. If an official or the central bank claims that a 7% increase in the industrial growth rate has occurred and they are on their word and defend it, announce the production growth statistics in each of the industry sub-sectors so that I can see and believe that growth has taken place. Otherwise, it is easy to claim.”

About the corruption in all sectors of the government, he added:

Q: “Economic experts consider the behavior of rent-seeking enterprises as one of the obstacles to the formation of production in Iran. Like the case you mentioned in the context of the exchange rate, but it seems that the issue is beyond the distribution of hundreds of thousands of billions of tomans of foreign exchange rents among upstream industries.

A: “Yes, economic power is in their hands. At the moment, the price of currency should go down, but why is it always going up despite the temporary cuts? Private-Government and Government companies and upstream industries are preventing the exchange rate from falling under the pretext of defending production, But which production?

“From 1978 until now, the value of the rial is one four thousandth lower. In fact, every 6 Tomans (dollar) has reached 24,000 Tomans. That is, it has increased 4,000 times. On the other hand, the value of 24,000 Tomans in 2021 is one-fifth or one-fourth of 1978. While the real price of the dollar is 10,000 tomans.

“From 1961 to 2021, that is, within 60 years, the growth of non-oil exports and the growth of industrial GDP occurred for periods when the dollar exchange rate was stable. Its examples are from ‘66 to ‘76, and from ‘99 to 2001. Even if it was because of the price of oil, it happened anyway. But why is Iran’s industrial production not increasing?”

And about the hopeless situation of industrial entities and their dark fate, the interviewer added:

Q: “In the seven years and a few months that have passed since the 11th government, there has been a lot of talk about increasing the working capital of production and industrial units, but many of these units could not survive after a few injections of liquidity and gave up their lands and production tools to the creditors. Why is it that injecting liquidity does not meet the growing needs of the industry?

A: “We know that the circulation of capital has doubled over the past year. That is, this increase in circulation capital is not responsive to the dying industry. Suppose a plastic manufacturer has previously bought petrochemicals in a 2 to 3 months payment deadlines, and also sells this period to bring back the petrochemical’s money, but now the price of raw materials has increased six times and the working capital of units is multiplied but does not meet the costs.

“On the other hand, the total banking network facility has fallen and has halved in the last three years based on the dollar rate. On the other hand, the price of selling raw materials and intermediate goods is halved, which is closer to the purchasing power of the people, but the government’s statistics are not coordinated with the level of people’s purchasing power.”

And finally, about the government’s disorganization, the interviewer added:

Q: “Why does the industrial growth referred to do not have specific and detailed executive mechanisms?

A: “Those who say that seven percent growth has taken place must explain what the mechanism for achieving this growth has been. I can say that for 10 years, the growth rate of our capital formation has been lower every year than the previous year.

“Is it possible to extract production boom from the decrease of this rate? This is not magic! What technological masterpiece has occurred to witness industrial growth? A province branch of the Industry, Mines and Trade ministry, at the beginning of the year, claimed and estimated that they will revive 50 industrial units this year. These statistics are then aggregated from province to province at the end of the year, and at the end of the year the Ministry of Industry, Mines and Trade reports that, for example, 1,500 units have been rehabilitated.”

Iran’s People Looted by the Government’s ETF Funds

Pooya Stone
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Iran’s People Looted by the Government’s ETF Funds

The bright future envisioned in Iran for ETFs, or state-owned investment funds, was nothing more than a mirage like other capital market shares, and the situation has reached a point where funds that were supposed to bring justice to the people and be profitable are at a loss, that the buyers of this fund have been included in the list of credit losers and it is a question of how to compensate their losses.

The rise of the capital market was close to the peak, when Iran’s looting government promised to offer three government funds in the form of ETFs, and it was decided that the first fund should be in the form of banking and insurance, the second should in the form of refining and the third fund should be in the form of car and metal funds.

The government planned to market the rest of its stake in some banks, insurance companies, refineries, automobile, and steel companies, thereby transferring its shares to the public. These funds were given to the people with a 20 to 30 percent discount, and any Iranian with a national identity number could be able to buy them.

In this regard, the first fund called Dara Yekom was launched in early summer of last year and was comparable on the third of July. In fact, through this transfer, the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Finance, on behalf of the Government the regime, transferred its remaining shares in Mellat Banks, Trade and Export of Iran, and Alborz Insurance and Amin Reliance.

More than four million people participated in the underwriting of the fund. The fund, which was in line with the rising days of the capital market, had a significant return and went up to 200 percent profit.

Profitability of the Dara Yekom was to such an extent, that even with a significant drop in the overall stock index from two million units to 1.1 million units, the fund is still in profit.

Accordingly, the price of each unit of the Dara Yekom on the day of release was 10,000tomans and each unit of this fund was more than 13.500 tomans on May 2, 2021.

But the fate of the Palayashi Yekom (First Refinery fund) was quite different from that of the Dara Yekom. The Passion and excitement about the Dara Yekom were still high were the government decided to offer the Palayeshi Fund (the remaining government shares in the four refineries in Tehran, Tabriz, Isfahan, and Bandar Abbas).

This time, the Ministry of Oil was the other side of the story, and the supply of the Palayeshi fund started with the disagreement between the Ministry of Oil and the Ministry of Economy and became an excuse for the market to collapse. The fund was launched, but at the same time the market collapsed.

So the price of each unit of this fund reached 5000 Tomans, which is half the price of the starting day of its offer. These days, the sales queues of this fund are still persisting, and each unit of this fund is priced at 7,000 Tomans.

Now the situation has reached a point where the Securities and Exchange Commission has decided to compensate the people who bought the ETF in order to revive the market and perhaps restore public confidence in the stock market.

But this is just an illusion because the people’s money has been lost and mostly extracted by the government’s officials and brokers. Usually, people do not expect to lose money in dealing with the government, and on the other hand, the government, like any other publisher, must support the stock it has offered for up to a year so that the share price does not fall below the daily price.

Iran’s Government Fears a ‘Second Field’

Sia Rajabi
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Iran’s Government Fears a ‘Second Field’

Social exclusion is the process in which individuals are blocked from the various rights, opportunities and resources that are normally available to members of a different group, and which are fundamental to social integration and observance of human rights within that particular group, like housing, employment, healthcare, civic engagement, and democratic participation.

The outcome of social exclusion is that affected individuals or communities are prevented from participating fully in the economic, social, and political life of the society in which they live.

In Iran this has become an extreme disaster and a ticking bomb. The expansion of this is directly related to the increase in land, housing and rent prices in the country.

Marginalization in Iran grew greatly due to the imbalance of urban areas. The lack of balance in urban areas leads to the polarization of cities. When rising prices in real estate and other living essentials occur, people move to the marginal points of large cities, due to their financial capability, so that the opportunity of a living for this people is not eliminated. The marginalization in Iran faces the least number of services and infrastructure.

Marginalization is very common in metropolitan areas and the population of marginalized people in Iran is very high. Lack of water resources, living along rivers, successive droughts, natural disasters, floods and earthquakes, the destruction of homes, lack of security, especially in border cities, are some of the reasons for migrating to booming cities. But the most important reason is the government’s corruption and mismanagement of the country, which has thrown more than half of the population under the poverty line. Living facilities on the outskirts of Iran are very scarce and in a deplorable state.

In an interview published by the state-run website Faraz News, the Managing Director of Welfare, Services and Social Participation Organization of Tehran Municipality about the situation in Tehran and around this city said:

“The root of many social harms is migration to big cities, especially Tehran.”

In this article, Vali Ismaili the deputy chairman of the parliament’s social commission said: “Certainly, the lack of facilities and the lack of unbalanced growth and development has led to the marginalization of provincial capitals today, especially Tehran, and the current policy cannot answer these problems. Marginalization does not have good result, and the result of marginalization is the problems that we refer to them as social harms.”

Seyed Malek Hosseini, Managing Director of the Welfare, Services and Social Participation Organization of Tehran Municipality, said: “The gap created is not only in this city and we should know that there is a gap between the center and the periphery in other provinces between the center of the province and the surrounding cities too, but this difference is much greater due to the imbalance of Tehran’s population with the size of the area to live.”

He added: “Interestingly is that five percent of the residential area of ​​Tehran is in a dilapidated area, and in this five percent, more than 15 percent of its population live there, which means more than 1.2 million people. And the facilities are not well distributed. And we certainly have certain problems in the field of social harms.”

Hosseini about the municipality’s budget said that they are not receiving any budget from the government and said: “We have a serious legal challenge that decision-makers and legislators must address.”

Finally, he warned the government: “If the immigration problem is not solved, it seems that we are ready to contain the broken dam with a bucket in hand, which is not an answer.” (Faraz News, May 2, 2021)

In another article published by the state-run website Shoma News written by Ali Heydari, Member and Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Social Security Organization, about the latest events around the newly-revealed audio tape of Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, aiming and speaking about the two expressions “Field” (Strategical action outside the country) and “Diplomacy” (Foreign affairs) he warned the government that this should not be the only one concern, and there is a more serious and worried concern which he called a “second field” (the society) and added:

“It is very clear that poverty (food, education, insurance, housing, etc.) and inequality or even feeling them, unemployment, social harm, lack of minimum living, inability to meet basic needs, severe decline in purchasing power, etc. can affect the roles and functions of government and diplomacy and the field. However, when the executive forces (the executive branch and the collective heads of diplomacy) and the military forces (the field) face and fight outside the borders, they should be secure from their back and behind the front.

“Lack of a comprehensive and multi-layered centralized system of social security and failure to meet the basic needs of people in general and target groups and strata in particular, and especially uncertainty about the future and the fate of livelihood, health etc. the head of family and individuals under his tutelage, he can create the ground for special and occasional recruitment of enemies inside the country, which leads to espionage, sabotage, security leaks, etc., and on a more general level, it can lead to public recruitment by enemies and decreased social capital and social trust or lead to protests, riots and social unrest.”

“What has happened in practice, despite the fact that in the past, different governments have not been able to achieve full success in fulfilling this inherent duty and legal mission, and unfortunately the problem of poverty, inequality, social harm, social anomalies, unemployment, educational poverty (deprivation of education), residential poverty (lack of adequate real estate or rented housing), food poverty and malnutrition, insurance poverty (lack of basic insurance coverage for pensions and unemployment, etc.) have not been eradicated in the country and sometimes we are facing obvious and gross poverty.”

Warning about the marginalization and ticking areas around the cities which according to him number around 2020 regions in Iran, he added:

“This shortcoming which means not eradicating poverty, inequality, deprivation and social harm in certain neighborhoods of cities, and regions that during different periods and from different perspectives and according to the view of the executive body which prepares the reports are recognized under different titles such as slums, deprived, marginalized, informal settlements, vulnerable, high-risk, out-of-bounds, worn-out area, historical area, etc., which in any case, the obvious feature of these neighborhoods is the occurrence of severe figures of poverty and harm, and they are a source for the harmed people and, unfortunately, the gathering of mighty and poor and the downtrodden, harmed people who are scattered in such neighborhoods, many residents over the are trapped in poverty and harm, and more tragically, poverty and harm in these families become generational and cyclical, and we experience a cycle of regression of fall to lower levels.” (Shoma News, May 3, 2021)

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