Iran Focus
London, 29 Aug – French companies are risking their money and their reputation by doing business with the Iranian Regime, according to Mohammad Amin.
Ever since the 2015 nuclear deal was implemented last year, various companies across the globe have been seeking out deals with the Iranian Regime but could it all be in vain?
On August 7, the Renault Group agreed to terms with Iranian state company IDRO (Industrial Development and Renovation Organization of Iran) to take hold of 60% of the company shares in order to increase the production of Renault vehicles in Iran to 150,000 units per year.
This is just one of many deals arranged since the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed, which has resulted in a 235% increase in trade between Iran and France.
The biggest deal so far has been oil company Total, who bought over 50% of shares in a $4.8 billion project of the offshore gas field in the Persian Gulf. Other contracts that have been signed of are still in negotiation include Airbus’s sale of over 100 aircraft to Iranian private airlines.
Indeed, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and the Iranian Minister of Industry, Trade and Mines Mohammad-Reza Ne’matzadeh have been welcomed in Paris, while French foreign ministers Laurent Fabius and Jean-Marc Ayrault and the ministers of Economy, Transport, Foreign Trade, Agriculture and Higher Education have met in Tehran.
Amin isolated three major obstacles to doing business with the Iranian Regime; upcoming US policy changes on Iran, the unsteady fate of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani who negotiated the 2015 deal, and the signed contracts which may be revoked if the current situation changes.
US Policy
Donald Trump is imposing further sanctions on the Iranian Regime and if they impose many more it could seriously impact on French businesses who would do business with Iran and could see them shut off from the US market.
Amin wrote: “Because of this, it means that any foreign enterprise entering into commercial relations with Iran is visibly or invisibly involved in relations with IRGC…In fact, one can hardly imagine making commercial or other transactions in Iran without the presence of the IRGC from one end of the chain to the other.”
Instability of Iran Regime
The Iranian Regime is incredibly unstable at the moment, not only as a result of outside forces like US policy but also as a result of internal forces.
The Iranian Regime is at war with itself, because everyone wants to grasp more power and more influence.
Amin wrote: “Currently, a ruthless struggle for power rages in Iran. On the side, the president with very limited powers, on the other side the Supreme Leader who holds all the levers in all political, security, military, financial and religious fields.”
The Regime is also greatly opposed by the people and it is likely that they will be overthrown soon by the legitimate people’s resistance.
The contracts
The contracts signed between French and Iranian companies are hugely beneficial to the French at the expense of Iran in order to encourage the signing of deals, however it is not known how these contracts will be affected by the changing policies towards Iran.
Amin wrote: “Thus, if the domestic and international political situation of Iran improves, these contracts will undoubtedly be called into question. Conversely, if the situation of the Iranian theocracy continues to deteriorate and its confrontation with the United States gets worse, French transactions will also fall under US sanctions.”
