Iran’s $7 Billion Trade Deficit and Dependence on a Handful of Countries
Mohammad Ali Dehghan Dehnavi, head of Iran’s Trade Promotion Organization, stated that in the first half of this year (March 21 to September 21), Iran’s non-oil foreign trade deficit reached $7 billion. This is compared to the historic record of $17 billion last year.
On October 13, Mohammad Ali Dehghan Dehnavi announced that in the first six months of the year, Iran’s total non-oil exports amounted to $25.8 billion, while imports reached $32.5 billion.
The last time Iran had a positive non-oil trade balance was in 2018. Iran’s trade deficit has grown so much in recent years that since the early months of Ebrahim Raisi’s administration, the regime’s customs included oil exports in their reports to mask the increasing foreign trade deficit.
Aside from the trade deficit, the latest Central Bank report shows that over $20 billion in capital flight occurred in the first nine months of last year (from March 21, 2023), marking a historic record. Since then, the government has stopped publishing capital account data and recently blocked access to such data, making the Central Bank’s website inaccessible from outside Iran.
The significant gap between Iran’s non-oil exports and imports (trade imbalance) and the regime’s tactic of including oil, electricity, and technical engineering services in customs reports come as tanker tracking firms report that Iran’s daily oil exports over the past two months have dropped by 400,000 barrels compared to previous months.
Additionally, in the first 10 days of October, Iran reduced its oil shipments by 70% to 600,000 barrels per day due to fears of retaliatory Israeli attacks on its oil facilities.
Thus, Iran’s oil revenues are expected to decline significantly in the second half of this year (from September 22, 2024, to March 20, 2025).
According to figures provided by the head of Iran’s Trade Promotion Organization, 79% of Iran’s imports and 75% of its non-oil exports are dependent on just five countries, with China at the top of the list.
Tanker tracking companies also report that 95% of Iran’s oil exports are dependent on the Chinese market, with the remainder going to Syria.
In Iran, Disabled People Receive Less Than $16 in Pensions
With increasing inflationary pressure in Iran and household livelihoods at risk, people with disabilities face more challenges than ever before, with no clear outlook for their livelihoods. Some disability pensioners say that disabled retirees are now at the bottom of the pension income hierarchy, and with pensions below 10 million rials (approximately 16 dollars), their difficulties have worsened.
The state-run ILNA news agency, quoting disabled retirees, reported that in recent years, the prices of many goods have increased by up to 400%, creating a “strange gap” between wages and the cost of living.
The report mentions Article 27 of the Comprehensive Law for the Disabled, which requires the government to ensure that the minimum social security salary is provided to people with severe and very severe disabilities. However, even this minimum is not being paid.
This news agency, quoting a representative of disabled retirees and an advocate for disability rights, wrote, “In the past two years, the disabled community has been abandoned by the Welfare Organization. The worst period for disabled individuals has been these past two years since the organization’s leadership changed.”
This representative emphasized, “Currently, the pension for a disabled person is about 9.7 million rials (approximately 16 dollars)! In other words, the pension for a disabled individual has still not reached 10 million rials.”
The ILNA report states that there are over 600,000 severely and very severely disabled individuals in the country who are unemployed, and the law does not apply to all of them.
Behrouz Morvati, a disability rights activist, stated in August that last year’s protests were aimed at enforcing Article 27 of the Law for the Protection of Disabled Persons with a proposed subsidy of 100 million rials (approximately 160 dollars), but “we don’t even receive 20 million rials in total. This amount doesn’t solve any problems for disabled individuals.”
In June, a group of “independent activists” wrote a letter to the UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities, highlighting the participation of the head of the Iranian Welfare Organization at the 17th conference of this international body. They emphasized the Iranian regime’s disregard for the rights of its disabled citizens.
In this letter dated June 10, it was noted that Ali Mohammad Ghaderi, head of the Welfare Organization, attended the 17th Global Conference on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities, even though “the Iranian regime has ignored the provisions of the 2006 UN Convention, and the recommendations sent to Iran, and has not even implemented the 2017 Law for the Protection of Disabled Persons domestically.”
Tehran Prosecutor Seeks Hand Amputation for Eight Thieves Amid International Condemnation
The prosecutor’s office in Tehran has requested the punishment of “hand amputation” for eight thieves in a joint case, with an indictment that has been referred to the court for sentencing. This comes amid sharp condemnation from human rights organizations in a recent statement, criticizing the resurgence of hand amputation sentences by the Iranian regime’s judiciary.
According to the state-run Hamshahri Online newspaper, the eight individuals, for whom hand amputation under the regime’s so-called Islamic law (“Had”) has been requested, are accused of forming a theft gang. In the summer of 2021, they allegedly broke into a house in northern Tehran and stole property worth 50 billion rials (approximately 80,000 dollars).
After their arrest with the help of CCTV footage, the special theft prosecutor issued a request for “hand amputation” as a punishment, and their trial will be held soon.
Previously, the Tehran Criminal Court had issued a sentence of finger amputation for two main suspects in another theft case.
The punishment of hand amputation is one of the penalties that has faced widespread criticism from international organizations due to its contradiction with human dignity.
Under the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, the imposition of inhuman and degrading punishments is prohibited. Nevertheless, Iran’s regime continues to implement such sentences, disregarding both domestic and international objections.
U.S. Imposes New Sanctions on Iran’s Regime
The U.S. government has announced the expansion of sanctions against the Iranian regime’s oil and petrochemical sectors in response to Tehran’s missile attack on Israel.
The U.S. Departments of Treasury and State department announced the list of these sanctions on the evening of October 11.
The new sanctions target key sectors of Iran’s economy, aiming to deprive the Iranian government of funding for its nuclear and missile programs.
Jake Sullivan, National Security Advisor of the United States, stated in a press release that the U.S. had previously made it clear that Iran’s dangerous missile attack on Israel would face severe consequences.
Sullivan noted that the attack targeted Tel Aviv, Israel’s most populous city, and could have killed hundreds, if not thousands, of innocent people. He wrote that fortunately; the attack was thwarted thanks to the collaboration between the U.S. military and Israeli Defense Forces.
On the evening of October 1, Iran’s regime fired about 200 missiles at Israel, and Israel has pledged to respond to the attack.
This was the Iranian regime’s second missile attack on Israel, and according to Iranian officials, it was in retaliation for the deaths of Ismail Haniyeh and Hassan Nasrallah in Tehran and Beirut.
The regime’s previous attack on Israel occurred on the night of April 13 in response to an attack on its consulate in Damascus.
According to the White House National Security Advisor’s statement, the new sanctions include actions against the “ghost fleet” that illegally transports Iranian oil to buyers around the world.
The U.S. Treasury Department announced that the new sanctions target 16 companies, and 17 ships involved in transporting Iranian oil and petrochemical products.
Max Maritime Solutions FZE, based in the United Arab Emirates, and three ships under its management, CARNATIC, BENDIGO, and SALVIA.
According to the Treasury Department, this company and its subsidiary ships carried out nearly 12 ship-to-ship transfers of Iranian oil in 2023, most of which was later sent to refineries in China.
The ship LUNA PRIME, formerly known as Selene, owned and managed by Hong Kong-based Cathay Harvest Marine Ltd. This ship also transferred Iranian oil to several refineries in the People’s Republic of China and conducted a ship-to-ship transfer with an Iranian tanker near Singapore, carrying tens of thousands of tons of Iranian heavy crude oil.
Liberia-based Elza Shipping SA is the registered owner of the ELZA, which has been involved in transferring hundreds of thousands of barrels of gas condensate from an Iranian ship, as well as ship-to-ship transfers near Singapore, transporting tens of thousands of tons of South Pars gas condensate.
Jazira Das International Oil Products Trading LLC, based in the UAE, as the recipient of falsified shipment documents, has passed off millions of barrels of Iranian crude as UAE oil and coordinated the transport of several Iranian oil shipments with Chinese oil companies under the name of the U.S., obscuring the involvement of Iran’s National Oil Company.
The Harry Victor Ship Management and Operation L.L.C., which manages the ships GOODWIN, ANHONA, and WEN YAO, has transported several petrochemical shipments for Iran’s Triliance Petrochemical Company.
Sanctions from the U.S. Department of State:
The U.S. Department of State also announced sanctions on six companies and six ships involved in Iran’s oil and petrochemical trade.
Engen Management NV, based in Suriname, which operates as the commercial manager of the HORNET in the transport of Iranian oil.
Strong Roots Provider NV, based in Suriname, which serves as the commercial manager of the BERG in transporting Iranian oil.
Glazing Future Management NV, based in Suriname, which operates as the commercial manager of the VORAS in the transport of Iranian oil.
India-based Gabbaro Ship Services PVT LTD, which acts as the technical manager of the HORNET in the transport of Iranian oil.
Alya Marine Sendirian Berhad, based in Malaysia, which operates as the commercial manager of the SHANAYE QUEEN in the transport of Iranian oil.
Celia Armas Ltd, based in China, which operates as the commercial manager of the OCTANS in the transport of Iranian oil.
The U.S. Department of State has also sanctioned six ships: HORNET, BERG 1، VORAS، SHANAYE QUEEN، CAROL and OCTANS.
Iran’s Regime Is Hiring Criminals for Assassinations in The West
Reuters has recently published an investigative report titled, “Murder for hire: Inside Iran’s proxy war with Israel in the West” that includes examples of the Iranian regime’s collaboration with professional criminals for assassinations, threats, and abductions of Tehran’s opponents.
According to court documents and government officials, Reuters has found that since 2020, at least 33 assassination or abduction plots have occurred in the West.
Local and Israeli officials have attributed the use of criminals for assassinations in the West to the Iranian government.
One of these plots was an attack on a building in Athens, Greece, where a Jewish center and the Kashrut restaurant were located.
Sayed Fakhar Abbas, a Pakistani national, hired an old acquaintance of his in Greece for this attack.
Abbas promised to pay him €15,000 for each killing.
In April 2022, they discussed using explosives and arson on WhatsApp.
Abbas demanded documented proof to verify the number of casualties to avoid any issues with receiving payment.
Without mentioning any specific group or organization, Abbas asked him to carry out the operation in a way that would satisfy the employer.
Greek police have examined hundreds of pages of documents, messages, and security statements detailing how Sayed Irtaza Haider was recruited by Abbas.
Haider, a Pakistani national, was employed to plan the attack on Athens. Last year, Greek authorities arrested Haider and another Pakistani.
These individuals are facing terrorism charges, but they have pleaded not guilty.
Abbas, the mastermind behind the operation, has been charged with terrorism and is wanted in Pakistan on murder allegations. However, his whereabouts are unknown.
Israeli intelligence service Mossad, which assisted Greece in the investigation, stated that the hiring of criminals for assassinations in the West was orchestrated by the Iranian regime and is part of an international network of terrorists and criminals directed by Iran.
Although the Iranian regime has denied Mossad’s claim, the methods used in previous plots have been similar. Documented evidence shows that Iran has repeatedly used criminals for assassinations in the West.
Reuters has managed to track down two other similar cases that appear to be linked to Pakistani nationals.
The targets of the plots attributed to the Iranian government have included senior U.S. officials, Iranian journalists, and opponents of the Iranian regime abroad.
The campaign of former U.S. President Donald Trump recently announced that U.S. intelligence agencies have received information about assassination threats from the Iranian government against him.
Brett Holmgren, Director of the United States National Counterterrorism Center, has stated that since 2020, the Iranian regime has increased deadly plots by non-Iranian criminals against former U.S. officials, opponents of the Iranian government, Jews, and Israeli targets.
Ali Khamenei, the Iranian regime’s Supreme Leader, has repeatedly called for the destruction of Israel, and many Iranian officials have vowed to kill Western officials as well.
Most of these threats are carried out by non-Iranian criminals to avoid directly implicating Tehran.
The increase in plots attributed to the Iranian government in the West has coincided with escalating tensions between Iran’s regime and Israel.
Last month, a German court sentenced an Iranian-German individual to prison for planning to burn down a synagogue on behalf of the Iranian regime. He had thrown a Molotov cocktail at the synagogue.
In the U.S. as well, since 2020, five cases related to assassination or abduction have been attributed to the Iranian regime.
Recently, a Pakistani man has been accused of collaborating with the Iranian regime to assassinate a U.S. official.
By hiring non-Iranian criminals, the Iranian regime is effectively trying to cover its tracks in these crimes.
Iran’s Regime is Plotting to Assassinate U.S. Politicians
Politico has published a report on the Iranian regime’s efforts to assassinate Donald Trump and other senior U.S. officials following the death of Qassem Soleimani, the former head of the terrorist IRGC Quds Force.
The report states that since Soleimani’s death, Iran’s regime has consistently threatened retaliation, and U.S. officials have concluded that these threats are real and serious.
U.S. intelligence officials have also warned that these threats have increased in recent months.
For example, two failed assassination attempts on Trump were made in the summer of 2024, although direct links to Iran have not been proven.
“Tehran isn’t bluffing — and it isn’t giving up anytime soon.”
Politico notes that Iran’s threats to assassinate U.S. officials, particularly Trump and those involved in Soleimani’s killing, are broader and more dangerous than previously reported.
Matthew Olsen, U.S. Assistant Attorney General for National Security, has stated that Iran’s regime has clearly shown its intent to seek revenge on former U.S. officials.
The report references interviews with 24 U.S. officials who are directly aware of the attack on Soleimani and the subsequent threats.
Many of them have emphasized that Iran’s assassination threats are much more tangible than the threatening posts on social media.
They have also reported hacking attempts and digital surveillance against former officials and their families.
Additionally, there has been discussion of the Iranian regime’s efforts to track a U.S. official during an overseas trip.
The report mentions the U.S. government’s efforts to protect former officials from these threats.
However, some of these officials do not receive government support and are forced to secure their own protection.
One individual who spoke to Politico, Megan Reiss, former National Security Advisor to Mitt Romney, said that many of those targeted by Iranian threats have received no support.
Politico also highlights the significant budget allocated for protecting these officials, noting that around $150 million is spent annually to safeguard those targeted by Iran’s threats.
Some officials believe that the threats have reached a level where the killing of a U.S. official may occur, which would be considered an act of war.
The report discusses the impact of Qassem Soleimani’s death on U.S.-Iran relations, explaining that Soleimani was one of the close confidants of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei.
Following his death, Iran’s regime responded with missile attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq, which resulted in no casualties.
However, the regime’s proxy forces in the Middle East continued rocket and drone attacks on U.S. forces, while Tehran also began planning assassinations of U.S. officials.
Politico goes on to mention Iran’s efforts to assassinate former Trump administration officials, including John Bolton, the former National Security Advisor.
In 2021, a member of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) sought to hire an assassin to kill Bolton in the U.S.
The report concludes by emphasizing that threats against Trump are also increasing.
In July 2024, the FBI arrested an Iranian agent who was attempting to arrange the assassination of a U.S. political figure in retaliation for Soleimani’s death.
Trump’s campaign has also called for increased security measures for him in light of these threats.
Livelihood Basket in Iran Has Increased to Approximately 370 Million Rials Per Month
The state-run ILNA news agency reported that the cost of the household livelihood basket in Iran has increased to 367.8 million rials (approximately 583 USD), stating that wages do not even cover one-third of living expenses.
Currently, the minimum monthly wage for workers covered by labor law, who are married and have children, is around 110 million rials (approximately 174 USD).
ILNA emphasized in its report that in recent months, the living costs of working families have increased due to heavy inflation affecting all goods and services. It added that in September, bread prices in various provinces rose by at least 25%, and in early October, the government officially raised the prices of milk and dairy products by 20%.
According to this news agency, taking these price increases into account, the livelihood basket calculated by labor activist Faramarz Tofighi for September is based on data from the Pasteur Institute and the Statistical Center of Iran, which includes official rates of food items.
He said: “The minimum wage for 2024 only covers 29% of living expenses, or the 367.8 million rials livelihood basket. In simpler terms, workers receiving the minimum wage are able to meet only 29.62% of their monthly living costs.”
The rising prices have led Mohsen Bagheri, a worker member of the Supreme Labor Council, to criticize the prolonged wait for the council’s tripartite meetings.
Bagheri said that since the beginning of this year (March 21), not a single meeting of the Supreme Labor Council has been held, and this approach is a violation of the explicit law.
The Supreme Labor Council is responsible for setting the annual minimum wage, but its performance has been heavily criticized by independent labor activists and unions.
Meanwhile, Hamid Haji-Esmaeili, a labor market expert, told the state-run Khabar Online news website that the main reason why workers, retirees, and consequently employees, are demanding wages to be set twice a year is the rising and fluctuating prices throughout the year, as well as the inflation that occurs over the course of the year.
So far, the government of Massoud Pezeshkian has not taken any action regarding the livelihood problems of workers and other wage earners. This comes despite the fact that in the short period since the 14th government took office, the prices of certain consumer goods have seen a significant increase by government order.
Iran’s Health Ministry Is Disregarding Nurses’ Rights
The state-run newspaper Donya-e-Eqtesad, in a report titled “Nurses Between Heaven and Earth,” quoted Mohammad Sharifi-Moghaddam, Secretary-General of the Nurses’ Association, as saying that the Ministry of Health is neglecting the real rights of nurses, and the new health minister has yet to take any meaningful action.
In its October 10 report, Donya-e-Eqtesad wrote that for nearly 17 years, no one has listened to the nurses, and despite paying a large portion of their claims, it is unclear what the situation in the nursing community is like.
The newspaper highlighted these questions: Will the annual migration of 2,000 nurses decrease? Will 50,000 newly graduated nurses join Iran’s nursing community each year? And will nurses who are currently working for Snapp (a popular ride-hailing service in Iran) return to hospitals?
The newspaper’s focus on these questions is because nurses’ issues go beyond unpaid wages. A nursing activist told Donya-e-Eqtesad: “It is still unclear; the nursing committee that was supposed to be formed in the parliament—where has it gone, and which of the demands are currently being followed up?”
Sharifi-Moghaddam also told the newspaper: “Some of the payments made so far have been related to overdue mandatory overtime,” and he emphasized that this mandatory overtime was against the nurses’ will.
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According to Sharifi-Moghaddam, one of the main demands of the nurses is the full implementation of nursing services, which was approved by the parliament in 2007.
The Secretary-General of the Nurses’ Association also stressed that five or six staff members, from nurses to head nurses, are involved in caring for a single patient. He added that their total wage for each patient is 2.7 million rials (approximately 4.4 USD), of which 14% goes to the hospital director.
He added: “In the current situation of the nursing community in Iran, many people take the nursing entrance exam to prepare for migration, while many nurses are changing professions and working for Snapp. Fifty thousand have graduated, but they are not being employed.”
Javad Tavakoli, a member of the regime’s Central Council of the Nurses’ Association and a member of the Nursing Board of Mashhad, posted on X: “The Ministry of Health continues to either not hear or not understand the nurses’ demands.”
Tavakoli added: “Nurses are saying our issue is removing service barriers. The formula for calculating overtime wages and special rates needs to be changed. The Ministry of Health keeps saying they are paying overdue overtime wages (200,000 rials per hour, equivalent to 32 cents) and a very minimal rate.”
In recent months, nurses have held nationwide strikes and labor protests in response to the failure to implement the tariff law, mandatory overtime, and meager wages, which have received widespread support from labor unions.
Iranian Political Prisoner Sentenced to Death Goes On Indefinite Hunger Strike
Varisheh Moradi, a political prisoner held in the women’s ward of Evin Prison, has announced that she is going on a hunger strike to protest the deprivations she has faced and the executions carried out by the Iranian judiciary.
On October 10, news and human rights sources reported that this political prisoner stated she would go on an “indefinite hunger strike” in protest of the increasing number of death sentences and executions in Iran, as well as the uncertainty of her own status and the restrictions imposed on her.
A source close to Varisheh Moradi’s family confirmed to Hrana (a human rights news agency) that she “has started a hunger strike in protest of her continued detention and the uncertainty of her situation, as well as being deprived of visits with her family and lawyer since May of this year, a restriction ordered by Judge Abolqasem Salavati, and the increasing number of death sentences in Iran.”
Varisheh Moradi is imprisoned on the charge of “Baghi” (rebellion) through her membership in a Kurdish opposition group. “Baghi” refers to opposing and fighting against the Islamic ruler, a charge in the Iranian regime uses for those who rise against the regime.
The first court session was held on June 16 in Branch 15 of the Islamic Revolutionary Court, presided over by Judge Abolqasem Salavati, with the defendant’s lawyers present. The second session was held on October 5.
Ms. Moradi was arrested by Iranian intelligence agents in the suburbs of Sanandaj on July 31, 2023, and transferred to Tehran. In January 2024, after the completion of her interrogation, she was moved from Ward 209 of Evin Prison to the women’s ward.
The Iranian judiciary has previously sentenced several political and ideological prisoners to death on the charge of “rebellion,” and some have been executed in recent years.
Two other female political prisoners, Sharifeh Mohammadi and Pakhshan Azizi, are also currently on death row.
Executions Intensify in Iran on the Eve of World Day Against the Death Penalty
October 10 is the World Day Against the Death Penalty. However, the Iranian regime, under the guise of religion, continues to execute people using death sentences.
Global resolutions, as the first step toward the complete abolition of this inhumane punishment, were passed for the first time in 2007 and again in 2008 by the United Nations General Assembly.
The Council of Europe and the European Union have emphasized in a statement their strong opposition to the death penalty under any circumstances.
