A new study shows that the unprecedented drought that has gripped Iran, Iraq, and Syria over the past five years would not have occurred with its current severity without climate change caused by human activities. For non-Iranian readers: Iran, Iraq, and Syria form a region already highly vulnerable to water scarcity and long-term mismanagement.
Scientists from the “World Weather Attribution” (WWA) group announced on Friday, November 21, 2025, that the rise in global temperatures caused by the burning of fossil fuels is the main factor pushing these three countries into an “exceptional” drought.
According to this study, which updates the group’s analysis of the region’s conditions for 2023, “this is the worst recorded drought in Iran.” With data updated to June 2025, researchers identified a stronger link between warming and long-term drought.
The group’s study, based on “strong evidence,” shows that human-driven climate change has increased the risk of drought by more than ten-fold and that these changes have undermined development gains made after regional conflicts.
According to these scientists, in a world without global warming, the ongoing drought—although already underway—would have been far less severe.
The study also emphasizes that structural weaknesses, including inefficient or overly interventionist water management, overgrazing beyond the natural capacity of the land, and agricultural expansion, have aggravated the water crisis in Iran, Iraq, and Syria.
Climate scientists have repeatedly warned since at least 2015 that the Middle East is likely the world’s most vulnerable region to the impacts of climate change.
The group’s new study on Iran states that the current dire situation is part of a longer-term water crisis in Iran and the region, driven by a wide range of factors, including recurring droughts combined with higher evaporation rates, water-intensive agriculture, and unsustainable extraction of groundwater.
These combined pressures have led to chronic water stress in major urban centers, including Tehran. Reports indicate that these cities face the risk of severe shortages and emergency rationing. At the same time, agricultural productivity is affected and competition over scarce resources is intensifying.
Iran’s thirsty dams: an account based on satellite imagery
According to the study, agriculture consumes more than 90% of Iran’s water resources. Water stress particularly affects farmers whose income depends on irrigated crops.
According to the WWA scientists, a five-year drought such as the one experienced since 2020 is no longer unusual under today’s climate conditions. But in a world without global warming, such a drought would be expected to occur only two to three times per century and would have been far less intense.
WWA studies compare the likelihood of a current weather event with the likelihood of the same event occurring in a world without human-driven climate change, allowing scientists to assess the extent of global warming’s impact on present conditions.
Iran is not the only country facing water scarcity. It is estimated that nearly one-third of all major cities worldwide will exhaust their current water supplies by 2050.
The convergence of urbanization, increased demand, and governance-related issues has fueled water shortages worldwide, and climate change has further intensified the problem.
The WWA study concludes that urban water resilience requires diversified water sources, demand management, upgraded and more efficient water infrastructure, and improved institutional capacity to manage limited water resources.
Iran has made headlines in recent months due to extensive government actions, including cloud-seeding attempts to induce rainfall and severe water restrictions across many districts of Tehran and other cities.
Masoud Pezeshkian, the president of Iran’s regime, said in August: “Because of mindless development, today we have no water under our feet and none behind the dams.”
Pezeshkian’s chief of staff, Mohsen Haji Mirzaei, also said recently on state-run television: “Scientific studies, charts, and evaluations show that all water-management policies implemented before and after the revolution have made the situation worse.”
Iran’s neighbor Iraq is also experiencing its driest period since 1933, while Syria is grappling with its worst drought in four decades.
Tehran’s air, due to increased pollutants, is currently at a level “unhealthy for sensitive groups.” The national meteorological organization issued an orange alert for Tehran, Isfahan, Tabriz, Karaj, Ahvaz, and Mashhad, warning that if the stable weather pattern continues and pollution sources are not contained, the air-quality index in these cities may reach the “dangerous” level.
On Friday, November 21, Tehran’s Air Quality Control Company announced that the city’s average twenty-four-hour air quality index, based on PM2.5 levels (particles smaller than 2.5 microns), stood at 103, categorized as unhealthy for sensitive groups.
The average morning AQI on Friday was 133, also categorized as unhealthy for sensitive groups.
The Air Quality Index (AQI) is divided into five main categories: zero to 50 is clean air, 51 to 100 acceptable, 101 to 150 unhealthy for sensitive groups, 151 to 200 unhealthy for all groups, 201 to 300 very unhealthy, and 301 to 500 dangerous.
Pollution expected to rise next week
The Iranian Meteorological Organization, in issuing an orange alert, announced that in the coming days most regions of the country will experience stable atmospheric conditions and clear skies—conditions that lead to a sharp rise in pollutant concentration in large, industrial, and densely populated cities.
According to the alert, if stationary and mobile pollution sources—especially in high-traffic and industrial zones—are not controlled, the AQI could reach dangerous levels for all age groups.
Tehran, Isfahan, Tabriz, Karaj, Ahvaz, and Mashhad are listed as the cities most likely to experience worsening pollution.
Sadegh Ziyaeian, head of the National Center for Weather Forecasting and Crisis Management, said the stable weather pattern will continue until the end of next week and that “the increase in pollutant concentration in major cities is certain.”
According to him, wind will occur only in parts of the eastern belt of the country and will have no effect on dispersing pollution in major cities.
Ziyaeian also said that in the coming days Tehran’s sky will be clear with local haze and that the air “will be at an unhealthy level for all groups.”
Iran’s regime has so far failed to implement any plan to combat air pollution. One of the most important causes of pollution in major cities is the burning of mazut (heavy fuel oil) in power plants. Although Iran has the world’s second-largest natural gas reserves, the regime is unable to provide clean fuel for its power stations. But this is not the only source of pollution. The drying of wetlands and land degradation, worn-out urban vehicles, extremely heavy traffic, improper waste disposal, and the burning of garbage are among the other contributing factors to Iran’s air pollution.
German officials and the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI)—the main opposition coalition to Iran’s regime—have stated that Iranians living in Germany are facing growing harassment from the regime’s security apparatus. According to them, the Iranian regime threatens Iranian citizens and pressures them to provide information about other exiles.
German intelligence services consistently warn about pressure and espionage by the Iranian regime against Iranian exile groups in Germany. The German domestic intelligence agency had also reported in its annual report last year that this threat remains high.
More than 100 cases of pressure on Iranian nationals in less than one year
Javad Dabiran, spokesperson for the NCRI—the largest political coalition opposing Iran’s regime—stated that he is aware of more than 100 cases of pressure on Iranian citizens by the regime in Germany since the beginning of this year.
He added that these cases usually involved pressure to provide information about other Iranian exiles.
Dabiran said these cases demonstrate an “unprecedented escalation” of the Iranian regime’s intelligence activities in Germany.
According to official statistics, Germany hosts about 144,000 Iranians.
Inside Iran, human rights groups and activists have reported repression of political dissidents. These instances of harassment—including arrests and other forms of pressure—have increased especially since the attacks during the twelve-day war.
On October 21, UN Special Rapporteur on human rights in Iran, Mai Sato, stated that the Iranian regime uses a wide range of tactics to suppress opponents and critics abroad.
According to her, these tactics include “death threats, attempts to steal information, smear campaigns, and cyberattacks.”
The NCRI stated that its members have, in some cases, contacted German police to report harassment.
In one such case, a forty-year-old Iranian Christian in the city of Essen in western Germany said that after participating in a demonstration in Brussels last September, his sister and brothers in Iran were threatened by the regime’s intelligence services.
In August, the U.S. State Department announced that the United States and thirteen of its allies had condemned increasing threats from the Iranian regime’s intelligence services in a joint statement, calling these threats a “clear violation of national sovereignty.”
This statement was issued on Thursday, July 31, by the governments of the United States, the United Kingdom, Albania, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, and Sweden.
Earlier, some of these countries had separately reported the presence of Iranian regime influence networks within their borders.
The UK Parliament’s Joint Committee on Human Rights (JCHR) warned in a report that foreign governments, including Iran’s regime, have become increasingly bold in their efforts to silence and intimidate individuals and groups inside the United Kingdom.
The U.S. State Department announced new sanctions against seventeen entities, individuals, and vessels involved in exporting Iranian oil. The move coincides with new Treasury Department sanctions and aims to limit Tehran’s oil revenue used for its nuclear program and regional activities.
On Thursday, November 20, the U.S. State Department announced sanctions on seventeen entities, individuals, and vessels that play a key role in facilitating the sale and transfer of the Iranian regime’s crude oil and petroleum products.
The action aligns with efforts to restrict financial streams that Washington says “the Iranian regime uses to advance its nuclear program, support proxy groups, and destabilize the region.”
Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, said:
“Disrupting the Iranian regime’s revenue is critical to helping curb its nuclear ambitions.”
The State Department’s statement says the Iranian regime relies on a vast network of maritime service companies, the so-called “shadow fleet,” and oil brokers across various countries to transfer its oil to buyers using deceptive and clandestine methods.
The United States says this network, by moving millions of barrels of Iranian crude and operating in busy maritime regions, threatens shipping security and freedom of navigation.
These sanctions were imposed under Executive Order 13846, which mandates the blocking of all property and interests of designated persons and entities in the United States or under the control of U.S. persons.
Sanctions on Singapore maritime-services companies
As part of the sanctions, the Singapore-based company STRASSELINK and its managers were designated for providing thirteen pilotage services to tankers of the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) from January to August 2025.
U.S. officials say this company enabled the transfer of more than 20 million barrels of Iranian crude by guiding these tankers.
Sanctions on five companies managing Iran’s “shadow fleet”
Five additional companies in Singapore, the UAE, Vietnam, the Marshall Islands, and Seychelles were sanctioned for managing tankers involved in transporting millions of barrels of Iranian oil. These vessels often conceal the origin of cargo through tactics like disabling tracking systems and conducting ship-to-ship (STS) transfers.
The shipping companies ANBO SHIPPING PTE, ARKADIA MARITIME, ERST GROUP LTD, and several others were sanctioned. According to the United States, these companies participated in loading Iranian oil from sanctioned vessels.
Targeting traders of Iranian petroleum products
Additionally, three trading companies in India and the UAE were sanctioned for purchasing, selling, or transferring petroleum products of Iranian origin, including bitumen and other refined products. The State Department says revenue from these products also constitutes a significant portion of the regime’s income.
Update to the U.S. Treasury sanctions list
The U.S. Treasury Department, in its latest update, added a set of individuals, companies, vessels, and aircraft to the Specially Designated Nationals (SDN) list—entities that Washington says play roles in evading oil sanctions, facilitating financial-transfer networks, and providing logistical support for the Iranian regime’s regional activities.
These individuals hold citizenship from Iran, Singapore, Malaysia, India, and Bulgaria, and some are connected to sanctioned companies and airlines.
According to the Treasury Department, several of these individuals—including two Singaporean citizens—directly participated in maritime transfers of Iranian oil. Several other Iranians were designated for involvement in “financial and logistical support” networks tied to the IRGC and sanctioned oil companies.
Asset blocking and transaction bans
Under the sanction’s regulations, all property belonging to designated individuals or entities within the United States or under the control of U.S. persons will be blocked, and any transactions with them are prohibited without a special license.
The U.S. government emphasizes that the goal of these sanctions is “behavioral change,” not punishment, and says it is prepared to consider delisting individuals if circumstances change.
Since returning to the White House, Donald Trump has reinstated the maximum-pressure policy against the Iranian regime and has implemented various rounds of sanctions.
The regime’s Foreign Ministry, in reaction to the new resolution of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors, called the measure “illegal and unfounded” and announced that Tehran has terminated the September 9 understanding with the Agency due to what it described as the “irresponsible conduct of the West.”
In a statement issued early Friday, November 21, the regime’s Foreign Ministry described the IAEA Board’s new resolution on Iran’s nuclear program as “illegal, unfounded, and the result of pressure from the United States, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom.”
The statement claims the resolution was passed “through the West’s misuse of its numerical advantage,” adding that nearly half of the members—including two permanent members of the UN Security Council—did not support it.
In its recent closed-door meeting, the IAEA Board of Governors adopted a resolution requiring the Iranian regime to “immediately” report on the status of its enriched uranium stockpiles and the nuclear sites damaged during the twelve-day war.
Of the Board’s thirty-five members, nineteen voted in favor of the resolution proposed by the United States and the European troika, three opposed it, and twelve abstained. Russia, China, and Niger were the only members who voted against it.
Reuters reported on Thursday, November 20, citing diplomatic sources, that the resolution aims to extend and recalibrate the Agency’s mission to monitor and report on aspects of the Iranian regime’s nuclear program.
The resolution calls on Tehran to provide the necessary answers and required access to IAEA inspectors “without delay.”
Tehran claims this resolution “violates the foundations of the Non-Proliferation Treaty” and repeats what it calls the “illegal demands” of previous UN Security Council resolutions on suspending enrichment.
The Iranian regime further asserts that the Board of Governors has “no authority” to revive “expired UN Security Council resolutions” and interprets the actions of the three European nations and the United States as proof of their “ill intent.”
Accusations against the U.S. and three European countries
The regime’s statement labels the United States as the “main culprit of the nuclear crisis” and claims that the suspension of certain IAEA verification activities in Iran is the “direct result of U.S. and Israeli military attacks” on nuclear facilities.
The regime’s Foreign Ministry also accuses Germany, France, and the United Kingdom of “continuous violations of the JCPOA” and of having “participated in the attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities in June 2025,” claiming they are responsible for the current situation.
Termination of the September 9 understanding with the Agency
The statement goes on to say that Iran—because of the actions of the Europeans and the United States—has been compelled to terminate the “September 9 understanding” with the Agency, an arrangement that, according to Tehran, had facilitated the resumption of inspections at certain nuclear facilities.
Nevertheless, Tehran insists it remains committed to its “principled position of rejecting weapons of mass destruction.”
Verbal attack on Israel
The regime’s Foreign Ministry statement describes Israel as “the greatest threat to global peace and security” and “the only possessor of weapons of mass destruction in the region,” accusing the United States and the three European countries of “complicity in Israel’s crimes” in Palestine and Lebanon.
State-run media in Iran reported on November 20 that the Iranian regime—together with Russia, Belarus, China, Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Zimbabwe—issued a joint statement during the Board meeting condemning the U.S. and Israeli attacks on the regime’s nuclear sites during the twelve-day war.
Western diplomats believe that although the attacks on the Iranian regime’s nuclear facilities caused serious damage, they did not destroy the nuclear infrastructure—leaving ongoing speculation about Tehran’s enriched uranium stockpiles.
The Persian-language page of the U.S. Department of State on the social platform X criticized the Iranian regime’s water-management policies, stating that the current water crisis in Iran is not merely the result of drought but of decades of mismanagement and failed policies. At the same time, Masoud Pezeshkian, the current president of Iran’s regime, said that future conflicts will be over water.
In the post published on Thursday, November 20, the Persian-language page of the U.S. Department of State stated that officials of Iran’s regime ignored experts’ warnings for years and delayed the “urgent reforms needed to ensure sustainability,” and are now disrupting the lives of millions of people through policies such as “water rationing.”
The U.S. Department of State stressed that this crisis “was not inevitable” and is the direct result of a regime that sacrificed Iran’s natural resources and ecosystems for its own political interests, and now the people of Iran are paying the price.
At the same time, Masoud Pezeshkian, president of Iran’s regime, said during a trip to Qazvin Province: “Today, the conflict is over water. When we said we should move the capital, we did not have enough budget; if we had it, maybe it would have happened, but even then they said such things are not feasible. But the reality is that we no longer have a choice; it is a necessity.”
Pezeshkian, referring to the thirty-centimeter land subsidence and describing it as a “disaster,” warned about neglecting environmental protection and the mismanagement of water resources.
He added: “We can expand Tehran, but we cannot solve its water problem.”
Pezeshkian continued: “Water can be brought from the Persian Gulf, but each cubic meter of water costs about 5 million rials. Is it logical to pay such an amount for one cubic meter of water? What logic approves this?”
He also warned on November 6 during a trip to Kurdistan Province that if it does not rain in December, water in Tehran will be rationed, and if it still does not rain, Tehran would have to be evacuated.
In response to these statements, Reza Haji Karim, head of Iran’s Water Industry Federation, emphasized that the water situation in the capital is “more concerning” than Pezeshkian’s remarks and “more horrifying” than official statistics.
Meanwhile, as the water crisis intensifies across the country, the Tehran Province Water and Wastewater Company announced on November 20 that due to severe water shortages and recent droughts, water for high-consumption customers will be cut for between 12 and 24 hours.
At the same time, Behnam Bakhshi, public relations director of the Tehran Water and Wastewater Company, said that six consecutive years of drought have moved the province from a “water-sensitive” condition into a “red water alert” stage.
He considered saving Tehran from its current water shortage to require “smart, fair, and future-oriented consumption by citizens,” calling for a 10% reduction in water use and the installation of consumption-reducing devices.
In recent months, as the water crisis has intensified and the regime has failed to manage resources, officials of Iran’s regime have repeatedly blamed the public, warning about declining dam reserves and urging citizens to “save water.”
France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States announced during a meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors that they have submitted a resolution aimed at clarifying the IAEA’s reporting mandate concerning the Iranian regime. These countries called on Tehran to immediately provide a report on its nuclear materials and to grant the Agency full access.
France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States stated at the IAEA Board of Governors meeting that they have submitted a resolution to clarify the Agency’s reporting mandate regarding the Iranian regime. They urged Tehran to immediately submit an accounting of its nuclear materials and to provide the Agency with full access.
The four countries stressed that the resolution does not introduce any new demands on the Iranian regime and only emphasizes the implementation of obligations Tehran is already bound to—such as providing unrestricted access for inspectors, delivering accurate information regarding nuclear material accounting, and restoring essential monitoring arrangements.
The statement of these countries, reads in parts:
“Our message is clear: Iran must resolve its safeguards issues without delay. It must provide practical cooperation through access, answers, restoration of monitoring, to enable the Agency to do its job and help rebuild confidence.”
According to the four countries, the submitted resolution better defines the Agency’s reporting mandate so that regular reports can be issued on the Iranian regime’s compliance with the nuclear components of the reinstated UN Security Council resolutions.
They added that the resolution creates no new obligations but instead restores transparency and returns the reporting mechanism to its pre-JCPOA format, under a single agenda item—something they described as “essential” for the effective implementation of the Agency’s mandate.
The statement also refers to Iran’s continued non-compliance with its legal obligations under its NPT Safeguards Agreement and stresses that this agreement is “binding under all circumstances,” requiring the Iranian regime to provide full access to all safeguarded facilities. (For a non-Iranian audience: the NPT is the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.)
The four Western countries called on the Iranian regime to immediately provide its special report on nuclear materials and to grant the Agency full access to nuclear materials and facilities.
Hours before the resolution was submitted, Rafael Grossi said in a press conference held on Wednesday that the IAEA had not asked the Board of Governors to draft a resolution against Iran.
He noted that the Agency is still not present at locations where it needs to be and has not been granted access to nuclear sites that were attacked.
Grossi emphasized that the Iranian regime’s continued membership in the NPT means it must comply with its rules.
The Director General added that the only thing the Agency can do is continue discussions with Tehran in order to obtain access to the desired sites. Grossi said that Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium remains in place.
Earlier, Kazem Gharibabadi, the Iranian regime’s deputy foreign minister, had warned on Tuesday, November 18, that the agreement Tehran signed with the IAEA in Cairo in September would be jeopardized by the resolution introduced by the United States and the three European countries at the Board of Governors.
The Cairo agreement allowed the IAEA to resume inspections of all declared nuclear facilities in Iran, including those damaged during the twelve-day conflict and subsequent attacks by Israel and the United States.
But after the three European powers reinstated UN sanctions on the Iranian regime in late September through the “snapback” mechanism, regime officials said that the reimposition of sanctions would “certainly” halt this agreement.
Satellite images show that the Iranian regime has installed a cylindrical structure resembling an explosives testing chamber at the “Taleqan 2” complex, which was one of the former nuclear weapons-development sites under the “Amad Plan.” The size of this structure and the site’s history have raised new questions about its possible purpose.
The Institute for Science and International Security, a Washington-based organization that monitors nuclear proliferation, reported that based on satellite imagery taken between October and November 2025 of the “Taleqan 2” site, this structure is approximately 36 meters long and 12 meters in diameter and is housed inside a metal building roughly 40 meters long and 17 meters wide.
Source: Institute for Science and international security
The institute emphasizes that there is no definitive evidence that this structure is being used for “nuclear weaponization,” but the location and the site’s history are cause for concern.
“Taleqan 2” was a key center for explosives testing in the Amad Plan, and before its bombing by Israel, it housed equipment for producing highly pure PETN — a powerful, stable, and moldable explosive. These materials were used inside the “explosive wave generators” of the Amad Plan.
According to the institute, during the Amad Plan’s operation, a smaller explosive testing chamber was located at the same site, equipped with a reinforced foundation and concrete structure that enabled “X-ray” imaging of explosive tests.
This site is located less than 200 meters from “Taleqan 1,” a location where a larger explosives chamber had previously been used for nuclear-weapon development.
The new construction began months before the “12-day war,” and current images show the project’s progress.
The large cylindrical structure sits at the center of a reinforced metal building and is positioned between three natural rock walls created by a mountain cut.
Two arch-shaped metal openings can be seen on either side of the structure, which, according to the report, may serve as “blast traps.”
The November 14 images also show three rectangular openings on the roof of the main metal structure that are likely used for ventilation or aerial access to the chamber.
A pile of soil is visible above the structure, which could be used to bury the building — a measure that increases the structure’s resistance to internal explosions or airstrikes.
Newly built concrete foundations around the main building also indicate structural reinforcement of the complex.
According to the institute, the Iranian regime has attempted to conceal the possible chamber from satellite observation.
Earlier images show that a large dark rectangular structure had been placed over the building for some time and was visible until August 24.
This cover was later removed, revealing the metal structure and cylindrical chamber in the images.
The report concludes that the architectural design and reinforcement of the site indicate its high importance to Iran’s regime.
Although the facility’s final purpose cannot be determined with certainty from satellite imagery, the structure’s dimensions, the past history of Taleqan 2, and its proximity to other Amad Plan centers raise “important questions” about the possible role of this site in Iran’s sensitive activities.
Fereydoun Rostami, an employee of the Marivan municipality, set himself on fire in front of his workplace in protest against pressure, threats, and humiliating treatment by the municipality’s security office. This is the third reported self-immolation in the past two weeks and the seventh media-reported suicide since October 23.
According to the Hengaw human rights organization, Rostami’s coworkers saved him using a fire extinguisher, but “security forces stationed at the Kanidinar municipality” in the Marivan region surrounded him and prevented witnesses from learning about his condition after the fire was put out.
The report states that Rostami, who had six years of experience in the administrative department of the Kanidinar municipality, was fired six months ago under pressure exerted by a security office employee identified as “Shima Mohammadi, daughter of Karim Mohammadi, a member of Marivan’s Intelligence Department.”
After being rehired, he was transferred to another division. In recent days, he was reassigned to municipal sanitation work and, according to Hengaw, forced to sweep streets and collect garbage.
Three protest self-immolations from November 5 to 17
Rostami’s self-immolation is the third since November 5. On November 5, Ahmad Baledi set himself on fire in protest after Ahvaz municipality agents destroyed his family’s food stand; he died in hospital on November 11.
Baledi, who worked at the family’s food stand while attending university, set himself on fire after municipality workers destroyed their stand.
On November 12, the head of Sanandaj Fire Department announced that a firefighter named Shaho Saffari set himself on fire inside the department’s headquarters in protest over unpaid and overdue wages; his condition was reported as critical.
The suicides that reached the media
According to media reports, since late October at least two young female medical workers, a journalist and political analyst, and one political prisoner have died by suicide.
In late October, news emerged that a gynecology resident at Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Yasaman Shirani, had died by suicide.
On November 2, similar news surfaced about a 36-year-old general practitioner named Nadia Motaghi in Shiraz. In the following days, the suicides of political analyst and journalist Fouad Shams, a young man in Aligudarz, and a political prisoner named Mehrdad Ahmadi-Nejad were also reported.
In response to these reports, Mohammad-Reza Aref, the first vice president under Iran’s regime president Massoud Pezeshkian, described the events as a “signal” to the authorities that points to a “social crisis.”
Ali Ehsan Zafari, head of the Dairy Products Union, announced a 70% increase in the price of raw milk compared to June and stated that this level of increase is equivalent to fifty years of past price jumps.
Speaking to the state-run ILNA news agency on Monday, November 17, Zafari said that dairy prices change daily due to rising raw milk prices.
According to him, “The price of raw milk had reached 230,000 rials per kilogram over sixty years, but within five months it increased to 390,000 rials per kilogram. This means it has risen by nearly 60%, which is equal to fifty years of price increases.”
It is worth noting that the union official’s claims do not seem accurate, as the five-month increase is not 60% but 70%. Therefore, assuming a consistent upward trend in raw milk prices over the past sixty years, this five-month rise is roughly equivalent to forty-two years of price growth.
Zafari added in his ILNA interview that the prices of all dairy products have changed because raw milk is the base input for all of them, and this trend will continue.
The head of the Dairy Products Union warned that as dairy prices rise, consumer demand has fallen, which will eventually lead to the shutdown of factories one after another.
In May 2025, milk prices had also risen by 27.7%, increasing from 180,000 rials to 230,000 rials per kilogram.
Media outlets report that the root of this crisis lies in drought-driven pressure on livestock farmers and sharply rising production costs in the livestock and poultry sectors.
A predicted 49% increase in dairy prices
The state-run Hamshahri Online newspaper reported on November 16 that over the past two weeks, widely consumed dairy products have been distributed at new prices daily, with an overall upward trend across the market.
Dairy producers, responding to criticism, claim that to compensate for rising input costs, they must raise product prices by an average of 0.7% for every one-percent increase in raw milk prices.
However, price increases for dairy products in the market have consistently exceeded this ratio.
With raw milk prices rising 70%, the average price of dairy products is expected to rise by about 49%.
Hamshahri reported that over the past week, various dairy companies increased the price of low-fat and full-fat bottled milk by more than 50% on average.
Dairy products in June had also faced a 42% price increase due to the rise in raw milk prices.
In recent years, staple household food items have been among the products experiencing the highest price surges.
Iran’s Statistical Center reported annual inflation for September at 37.5%, point-to-point inflation at 45.3%, and month-to-month inflation at 3.8%.
Experts believe these figures are usually more favorable than real market conditions due to political bias in the calculations.
