Trigger Mechanism and Iran Regime’s Reactions

Iran sanctions
Iran sanctions

By Pooya Stone

Before and after the announcement of the return of UN sanctions by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, colorful reactions were expressed by Iran’s leaders and figures of this regime. The essence of these reactions is: Anger, despair, fear, being hopeless about the result of the US Presidential elections, and of course hole threats and ridiculous showoffs.

Calling the IRGC chief General Hossein Salami to the scene is just one of these showoffs that we are witnessing now and of course in the upcoming days and weeks. Which of course is intended for domestic consumption only. As Salami threatened the US and said: “We will blow you away and destroy you,” and comments just like that.

The regime’s diplomatic apparatus, as well as President Hassan Rouhani to strengthen the morale of the regime’s forces, say that the United States has failed politically and legally and has not been able to reach a consensus in the Security Council. At a cabinet meeting on September 20, Rouhani, while apparently afraid the consequences of the trigger mechanism, launched a carnival of thanks to members of the UN Security Council, claiming the victory of the regime.

“I would like to thank Indonesia as the former President of the Security Council and Niger as the current President of the Security Council for their resistance to the illegal actions of the United States, as well as Russia and China as friendly countries that have stood firm against the irrationality of the United States, they stood both in the previous periods and in this period. I must also thank the other members of the Security Council, the European countries, the other countries, and all the 12 to 13 countries that have supported Iran and stood up to the United States.”  (Mashregh News, 20 September)

But despite Rouhani’s irrational comments, the speaker of the parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned the entire regime and that they should not ignore the essence of the issue with these optimisms.

“We should not rejoice in these legal and political failures of the United States and forget that our oppressive enemy will step forward step by step in escalating sanctions if this negligence continues to reshape the sanctions system.”

Then warning about the ‘starving army’ he added: “We should not retard the country and the livelihood of the people because of the West.” (State-run daily Javan, 20 September)

Disappointment with the outcome of the US election, he added: “We must prioritize the people, and we must take advantage of the clear experiences of the Iranian people and know that America’s enmity with this nation is deep-rooted and that whether Trump becomes president or Biden, there will be no difference in the main policy of hitting the Iranian people.

“So, we need to focus on strengthening the Iranian nation and declaring real victory when our economy and people are strong and feel that tangible changes have taken place in their lives.” (State-run daily Javan, 20 September)

Despite Rouhani’s claims about the isolation and Legal Failure of the US government, the state media are showing something else and clearly said that Europe’s superficial agreement with the UN Security Council is a kind of completion of the pieces of a puzzle for a complete siege of the regime.

“In the meantime, there is a danger that should not be overlooked. The ‘scuffle of the US and the Security Council members’, about the multilateral sanctions, should not distract us from the main US-European game against our country. This joint play does not rely on the presence of Trump or Biden in the White House.” (Resalat, 20 September)

Kayhan daily, which reflects the viewpoints of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, on 20 September wrote: “Europe’s opposition to the US implementation of the trigger mechanism is merely a show of opposition. Because the European members of the JCPOA in the past months and before the United States have been in the forefront in starting the implementation of the trigger mechanism.”

To get out of the crisis, the hypotheses at the forefront of this regime could include the following:

  1. Carrying out a passive policy of patience and waiting and, according to the state media, avoiding ’emotional and reactive actions.’ And staying in the status quo while still waiting for the outcome of the US election and jumping from one pillar to another in the hope of a way out.
  2. Relying more and more on the JCPOA and to rejoice in the rift between Europe and the United States, with the support of Russia and China. The same thing that Hassan Rouhani repeated, fearing the consequences of the trigger mechanism.
  3. Decreasing its JCPOA’s commitments and increase enrichment activities and the amount of enriched uranium to have the upper hand. This policy will not work anymore because of the return of the UN sanctions, part of which is the suspension of enrichment, reprocessing, and heavy water-related activities.
  4. Going overboard, dismantling the IAEA cameras, ending the IAEA’s inspections, and leaving the NPT, options that some of the regime’s MPs are calling for.
  5. Handling a terrorist adventure to get out of the crisis. In this case, it paves the way for military action within the framework of UN sanctions for its opponents.


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