Beneath the façade of apparent stability, the Iranian regime grapples with profound political and internal vulnerabilities that pose a threat to its hold on power. Over time, discontent and disillusionment have been steadily growing among the population, fueled by economic mismanagement, corruption, and a lack of social and political freedoms.
The regime’s authoritarian tactics, including strict censorship, arbitrary arrests, and human rights abuses, have only deepened public resentment. Iranians now demand greater transparency, accountability, and fundamental human rights, presenting challenges that the regime struggles to address effectively.
These grievances have found expression in periodic waves of public protests, which not only challenge the regime’s authority but also expose its vulnerability.
Moreover, the regime’s foreign policy decisions and international isolation contribute significantly to its political weaknesses. Pursuing controversial nuclear ambitions, supporting militant groups, and involving itself in regional conflicts have resulted in international sanctions and strained diplomatic relations.
In response to the urgent need to alleviate this critical situation and avert the risk of further protests, the Iranian regime has recognized the importance of establishing new relations with Saudi Arabia, its regional rival. Notably, this decision followed extensive national protests that confronted the regime last year.
After a seven-year freeze in relations, the regime has taken steps towards normalization by welcoming Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan in Tehran. This development marked the conclusion of a series of meetings between Farhan and Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian in March.
However, even the regime’s own experts caution that not all their problems can be solved by simply reviving political relations with Saudi Arabia, underscoring the depth of the regime’s critical conditions.
In an interview with the state-run daily Nameh News, Ali Bigdelli, a foreign policy analyst, emphasized that the diplomatic relationship with Saudi Arabia remains weak and unreliable.
Bigdelli also noted that promises of investment by Saudi Arabia are politically motivated bluffs, as practical implementation would hinge on the lifting of American sanctions and Iran implementing the directives of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), an international body that oversees rules to counter money laundering and financing of terrorism.
Furthermore, he argued that the resolution of the Yemen issue is necessary and that any agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia will not automatically lead to the United States losing its influence in the Middle East.
The regime’s urgent need for relations with Saudi Arabia considering its critical situation was highlighted in an article by the state-run daily Etemad.
The piece warned that failure to address internal and external problems promptly would result in distancing from Saudi Arabia and losing out in the global economic competition.
The article stressed the importance of recognizing the country’s limited time and the need to remove political obstacles without delay.
These challenges have been acknowledged by various regime officials and experts. Mohammad Reza Gholamreza, the head of the regime’s election headquarters, admitted that the regime and its supreme leader face sensitive and difficult conditions.
Gholamreza expressed concern about the upcoming elections and the potential for a new uprising, urging caution and likening the election process to a military operation.
He said: “This year we have elections that are sensitive. Why sensitive? Because the situation is a sensitive situation, it is a difficult situation. Khamenei, contrary to the usual practice, mentioned the issue of the elections at the beginning of the year.
“When Muharram and Safar are over, after Arbaeen, which is September 6, we have the reopening of universities and schools and the anniversary of the riots, and suddenly we enter a new battle. Therefore, we cannot make any mistakes. The election is like a military operation for us.”
Finally, he added: “I don’t want to scare you, I don’t mean to scare you at all, but the issue is important, it is important, so in the field of security, we must anticipate the most pessimistic scenarios. Because there is a possibility of bad things happening.”
Concluding that the Iranian regime’s urgent need for new relations with Saudi Arabia arises from its fear of renewed protests and its critical situation. The regime’s internal weaknesses, characterized by public discontent, political unrest, and international isolation, have necessitated a strategic shift in its approach. Reviving diplomatic ties alone will not resolve all of the regime’s deep-rooted challenges.
