There is no doubt that the Iranian regime is in a state of collapse, the result of forty years of a degenerative process. This regime is no longer able to satisfy the demands of the social groups in Iran. The people have spoken and are eager to bid farewell to the unfit theocracy.
The regime took power in Iran in 1979, promising to support the oppressed and poor population. Four decades later, the regime has transformed into an oligarchy, becoming the first enemy of the poorer members of society. Under the control of the mullahs, the few outweigh the many, with officials having the power, wealth, and privilege above the average citizen. This has created a tyrant regime ruled by someone called the ‘supreme leader’, who has control over the country, and those who are obeying him and his policies in the form of a paramilitary group called the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC).
This system is now witnessing its degeneration which started from the first years of its grabbing power following the 1980 protests. In 2009 where the regime faced a major challenge from the people. In 2019, the regime was faced with protests directly targeted at its supreme leader, Ali Khamenei.
In the latest protests, the people are targeting the entire regime. Fear of the regime is slowly fading away among Iranian citizens, and the regime is no longer able to recreate its past stability. Many of the regime’s elites and supporters are also turning their backs as they realize there is no feature for the regime.
The regime is completely inept at resolving issues, so much so that they were unable to manage the public transportation of the country. On October 3, 2020, Mohsen Hashemi even warned, “The fact is that Tehran’s public transportation system is on the verge of collapse.”
While this is just a straightforward example to represent the regime’s collapse, there are more serious facts that are reflecting this situation.
University professor Farshad Momeni explained the fall of social trust, stating, “In the three years leading to 2020, for the first time, the low-income population in Iran doubled, and more than 75 percent of the Iranian population cannot survive without subsidies.”
All the while, the regime’s officials and media have been trying to hide and deny this collapse. On December 26, 2022, the state-run daily Shargh wrote, “While Iran’s share in the world economy has fallen from 1.1% during the war to 0.25%, a military commander has seen Iran’s economy in the 18th place in the world.”
They added, “The minister of oil repeats every day that ‘we will sell twice as much oil as Rouhani and return all its dollars’, but the dollar is still rising daily, and the government budget deficit has reached 25% (at least 400 thousand billion rials).”
The same day, the state-run daily Etemad warned about the total disaster in the future, writing, “Investment in the country is even less than the amount needed to compensate for depreciation. This means that a full-scale disaster is coming for Iran’s economy and people.”
After the free fall of the rial, and after numerous denials by the regime’s central bank spokesman and other relevant officials, Mostafa Qamari Wafa, the bank’s spokesman, announced on December 29, 2022, that the government delegation of President Ebrahim Raisi had agreed to the resignation of Ali Salehabadi, the head of the National Banks.
Even many of the regime’s IRGC officers are falling short and backing down. Recently in a meeting, IRGC commander Hamid Abazari admit to the growing defection and disloyalty within the IRGC and questioned, “Today we are witnessing that some elites and personalities are stepping back. Do you not see what they are doing to this system? How are they insulting (the supreme leader)? Stand up and take a stance. Why are you keeping silent? Why are not speaking? Do you see those who are retreating and giving up?”
He added, “I’m a brigadier of the IRGC. I cannot imagine what will happen tomorrow. Because I have seen many elites who have stepped back. My own commanders, who were in the war moment by moment, took wounds, caved in, and stood up to the values. Stood up against the supreme leader and against the system.”
This is a clear sign of his fear of the growing disloyalty within the regime. As expected, the regime touted the slain commander of the Quds Force, Qasem Soleimani on the third anniversary of his death, in a bid to motivate its demoralized forces.
This is the reality of the regime after about three months of nationwide protests. No real plan to save itself from destruction, just blindly clinging onto past and former reputations.