Iran’s regime was recently selected to fill two new roles at the United Nations, sparking immediate backlash and controversy.
Reports of this appointment closely coincide with reports of a document leak which indicates that Tehran had arranged the sale of more than one million dollars’ worth of ammunition to Moscow by last September, for use in the ongoing war of aggression against neighboring Ukraine. The relevant document now joins a growing body of evidence for Iran’s material support of the Russian war. Tehran has publicly denied any such direct involvement, but numerous components have been recovered from attacks on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure, confirming the Iranian origin of Russian-deployed kamikaze drones.
The United States described Iran’s appointment to a disarmament committee as “absurd beyond contemplation.” The regime’s threats to the world were underscored by recent speeches from both regime President Ebrahim Raisi and regime Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, as well as military officials such as the commander-in-chief of the Army.
Speaking at the closing ceremony for a meeting of representatives from Iranian missions abroad, Raisi euphemistically referred to the country’s foreign policy as being focused on “deterrence,” while also insisting that there should be no coordination with “major powers” apart those outside of the Western world order, such as Russia and China.
On June 4, Khamenei made much the same pitch, at a commemoration for the anniversary of the death of his predecessor and founder of the mullahs’ regime, Ruhollah Khomeini. “Some people are mistaken to think if we back down from our stances in certain cases that will cause the enmity of the U.S, the global arrogance, or Israel toward us to diminish. This is a mistake,” he said, endorsing continuation of a hardline policy toward Western adversaries, evidently including non-compromise over Iran’s increasingly provocative nuclear program.
In other news, the regime boasted that the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, had closed the file one of three suspect sites where traces of undeclared radioactive material had been discovered by inspectors. This was later confirmed when reporters gained access to an IAEA report, which also indicated that the agency had accepted Iran’s explanation for the discovery of uranium that had been enriched to 83.7 percent fissile purity, just on the brink of weapons grade.
However, the report is certain to leave doubt in the minds of many who have criticized the regime and the international community’s approach to constraining its progress toward nuclear weapons capability. Both with regard to the near-weapons-grade uranium and the site known as “Marivan,” it appears as if the regime’s explanations were only accepted as plausible, or in the words of agency Director General Rafael Grossi, “not impossible,” but did not close off the possibility of other, more nefarious explanations.
After previously refusing to provide any explanation and then asserting that the nuclear traces at Marivan had been somehow planted via foreign “sabotage,” Tehran finally came to blame them on mining activity that had been carried out by unspecified foreign entities in the 1970s and 80s. But other informed sources have suggested that Marivan and the two other sites ostensibly still under investigation are evidence of substantial undeclared nuclear research, or even an entire parallel program that remained unknown to Western powers at the time they assessed the baseline of Tehran’s technical know-how.
After acknowledging that Iran had re-installed some surveillance equipment that had been dismantled last year, Grossi clarified that much more was needed, that progress toward adequate safeguards was moving very slowly, and that the latest measures were “a fraction of what we envisaged.”
The accompanying uncertainty over regime’s nuclear safeguards and the lingering prospect of a “breakout” to nuclear weapons capability drew a response from US foreign policy officials, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken reiterating the American commitment to keeping nuclear weapons out of mullahs’ hands. Toward that end, Blinken said, the White House would continue pursuing diplomacy while applying economic pressures and other forms of deterrence however would also be keeping the option of military intervention on the table.
Dana Stroul, the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East, made a similar point in separate remarks, while also highlighting opportunities for coordination with Tehran’s other adversaries. At the same time, Tehran continued to promote the idea of a broad, emerging anti-Western alliance that would be capable of overcoming both military and economic challenges from the US and its established partners. The Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) published a report boasting of statements from China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, apparently expressing support for a regional naval alliance.
While this project is still largely hypothetical, it may also be inspiring a resurgence of old Iranian regime tactics which seek to intimidate Western naval forces in the waters of the Middle East. On June 4, three fast-attack boats belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) approached a commercial ship in the Strait of Hormuz and shadowed it threateningly for an hour.
There is a long history of such dangerous encounters in and around the Strait. The regime has also been credibly accused of attacking commercial vessels in recent years using drones and limpet mines, as well as facilitating attacks by militant proxies such as the Houthi in Yemen. These incidents, too, are certain to be highlighted by the regime’s critics as reasons why there is no justification for Tehran to be offered a leadership role in any UN agency having to do with “international security.”
The emerging controversy over that appointment comes less than a month after a similar controversy over Iranian regime’s appointment to the rotating presidency of the Social Forum of the UN Human Rights Council. That appointment came approximately eight months after the start of a nationwide uprising inside the country, during which more than 750 people were killed by government forces, with more than 30,000 arrested.
