Iran: Spike in Death Caused by Suicide with “Rice Pills”

Salim Khani, the director general of forensic medicine in Kermanshah province, announced an increase in the number of deaths caused by the consumption of “rice pills” based on statistics from the past nine months. According to Salim Khani, at least 49 individuals lost their lives by using these pills in the past nine months, indicating an increasing trend compared to the same period last year when the number was 46. He told the regime’s Mehr news agency that this year, 14 women and 35 men have lost their lives “so far” due to the consumption of these pills. According to the director general of forensic medicine in Kermanshah province, “aluminum phosphide” is a group of pest control agents used to eliminate pests in warehouses and homes due to its high effectiveness and low cost. However, due to an increase in its usage, it has led to an increase in incidents resulting in long, painful, and avoidable poisoning and death. The director general of forensic medicine in Mazandaran province also reported 113 deaths due to poisoning with “rice pills” in the past eight months. It has been stated that individuals between the ages of 21 and 30 have the highest number of cases (23), while those under 16 years old have the lowest number of fatalities (four) due to poisoning with “rice pills.” Recent economic problems and the threat to household livelihoods have had various social consequences in recent years, including an increase in suicide rates, an increase in crime rates, an increase in dropout rates, and even a concerning trend of organ trafficking. Recorded statistics in the Ministry of Health system indicate that around 120,000 individuals committed suicide last year. On December 31, 2023, the state-run Jahan Sanat newspaper reported 6,000 suicide cases resulting in death. The report focused on the prevalence of suicide in the country and wrote, “There is a meaningful relationship between the lack of job security and the suicide rate.” Many experts attribute a significant portion of these social problems to the governance methods and inefficiency of the Iranian regime in providing welfare and guaranteeing basic rights, which have been deeply rooted in Iran over the past four decades.

Iran’s Regime “Galloping Ahead” With Its Nuclear Program, IAEA Chief Warns

Iran is “galloping ahead” with its program of enriching uranium at a high level, according to Rafael Grossi, the Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Grossi said that the Iranian regime is pushing forward with its uranium enrichment program and continues to hinder the agency’s inspections. In an interview with the English-language newspaper The National published on January 16, Grossi said, “Iran is the only non-nuclear weapon state, which is enriching uranium at this very, very high level – very close to weapons grade.” The latest report from the IAEA shows that Iran has increased the speed of uranium production to a level close to weapons-grade. Grossi said that Iran’s insistence on enriching uranium to a high level occurs in a tense Middle East region, with the conflict in Gaza adding to hostilities against Israel and its allies. However, the head of the IAEA emphasized that the path of dialogue with Iran, which claims to be advancing its enrichment program for non-military purposes, remains open. He stated that the overall picture indicates that Tehran is advancing its nuclear program with ambitious goals. While he does not oppose this development, he emphasized that the level of international inspectors’ supervision should be commensurate with these activities. Grossi said that even if Iran’s nuclear program is for non-military use, the Iranian regime has not adhered to its commitments. He pointed out that Iran has acceded to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of nuclear weapons and must abide by that commitment. In this interview, Grossi stated that Tehran continues to deny certain inspectors access to its facilities based on their nationality, which contradicts the nature of the agency’s activities. On December 26, 2023, the International Atomic Energy Agency announced that the Iranian regime had once again increased the speed and quantity of its production of 60% enriched uranium. According to the agency, the amount of 60% enrichment by Iran, which had previously decreased to three kilograms per month, has increased again. The International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed that Iran had increased the production of 60% enriched hexafluoride uranium to approximately nine kilograms per month at the Fordow and Natanz sites since the end of November 2023. Uranium enriched to 60% is close to weapons-grade. The United States, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom condemned Iran’s acceleration of the speed and quantity of enriched uranium in a joint statement. These countries considered Iran’s recent decisions as evidence of its lack of goodwill towards de-escalation and described it as a reckless move in a turbulent regional situation. They further called for an immediate halt to these actions and the de-escalation of Iran’s nuclear program, as well as full cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency as a guarantee of the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program. Mohammad Eslami, the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, referred to the reactions to the IAEA report as “media frenzy” aimed at “diverting public attention” from Gaza.

Iran’s IRGC Launches Missiles At Northern Iraq

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In a statement, the Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) claimed responsibility for a ballistic missile attack on Erbil, Iraq, stating that the objective was to “destroy espionage headquarters” and “target anti-Iranian groups.” Al-Hadath reported, citing security sources, that Iranian regime missiles fell near the U.S. consulate in Erbil. Following the confirmation of the missile attacks by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps on positions in Erbil, Iraq, Matthew Miller, spokesperson for the U.S. Department of State, condemned the attack and offered condolences to the families of the victims. Adrienne Watson, spokesperson for the White House National Security Council, also referred to some claims made regarding the targeting of U.S. positions by the Revolutionary Guards missiles, stating that the United States has tracked the missile attacks by the Guards in northern Iraq and northern Syria and confirmed that no American personnel or facilities were targeted in these attacks. The news networks Kurdistan 24 and Rudaw reported that the Revolutionary Guards’ missile attacks on Erbil on the evening of January 15 resulted in the destruction of properties and homes of civilians, as well as the killing of non-combatants and children. In a statement, the Kurdistan Regional Security Council stated that four civilians were killed and six others were injured in these attacks. Among the victims were a merchant and several members of his family. The organization called the IRGC‘s statements regarding the missile attacks “baseless claims” and described the repeated attacks as a violation of the sovereignty of the Kurdistan Region and Iraq. They called on the Iraqi government and the international community not to remain silent in the face of “this crime.” The IRGC issued three separate statements after these attacks. In the first statement, they claimed responsibility for the attack on Erbil but asserted that they targeted “espionage headquarters and terrorist groups” with ballistic missiles. The IRGC did not mention the names of these “espionage” or “terrorist” groups in this statement, but a Telegram channel attributed to the IRGC posted videos and photos of these attacks, stating that the “American Al-Harir base” was targeted in the attack on Erbil. In their second statement, the organization announced that they targeted “locations where commanders and key elements associated with the recent incidents in Kerman and Rask in Sistan and Baluchestan” in separate missile attacks on Syria. However, international or regional media did not react significantly to these claimed attacks by the IRGC and did not publish any pictures or images of these attacks. In their third statement, the IRGC claimed to have destroyed the “intelligence headquarters of Israel’s Mossad” in the missile barrage around the U.S. consulate in Erbil, Iraq.

Iranian Political Prisoner Saeed Masouri: We Are Not Afraid of the Sea of Blood

Saeed Masouri, Iranian political prisoner serving a life sentence, has written a letter titled “Oh Lovers, Oh Lovers, Today We and You Are Here.” The letter is written from Qezel Hesar Prison in Karaj to commemorate the beginning of his twenty-fourth year of uninterrupted imprisonment, and it reflects on the painful experiences in the prisons of the Iranian regime. In the letter, Saeed Masouri emphasizes, “They cannot scare us with this sea of blood.” He writes that for twenty-four years, he has endured the weight of the oppressive walls and bars like the child of Mary carrying his cross, and he has lived moment by moment in the terrifying atmosphere of the prison. Describing his twenty-third year of imprisonment, which coincided with the uprising of the Iranian people and the suppression of the protesting masses by the regime, Masouri refers to it as a “bloody” and “bloodiest” year of his imprisonment. Commemorating political prisoners executed by the regime, he writes, “I still feel the warmth of breath and the yearning of beloved ones like political prisoners Mohsen Shekari, Mohammad Mehdi Karami, Mohammad Hosseini, Milad Zohraevand, or Ghasem Abesteh, Ayoub Karimi, and Davoud Abdollahi (Aso) on my cheeks, who were slaughtered in this very slaughterhouse of Ghezel Hesar.” Masouri also mentions the names of Khosrow Basharat, Anwar Khodaverdi, Farhad Salimi, Kamran Sheikh, Mojahed Kourkour, Reza Rasai, and several other political and prisoners of conscience who are in danger of execution. He points to regime’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, as the orchestrator of recent crimes in Iran and writes, “The blood of our martyrs has not yet satisfied his thirst for blood, and the god of crime and slaughter, not the merciful God, continues to issue orders for these crimes.” The longest-standing political prisoner in Iran describes the prison as the “cemetery of human beings and humanity” and writes about the transfer of prisoners from public wards for the implementation of death sentences and the aftermath in the cells. He says, “When the slaughter and execution agents take one person from beside you every day for execution, with handcuffs and chains, and their last gaze is locked onto you, and there’s nothing you can do, every moment you become the hanged and executed one after him. I have been executed with them every moment throughout this whole year.” Masouri then asks his audience, “How long and how far does this situation continue?” and he answers, “Certainly, until we reclaim, drop by drop, the freedoms taken from our people, and this, of course, is a very bloody price that we pay every moment, and we are supposed to pay even more than that. Perhaps this is the fate of lovers of freedom and Iran.” In conclusion, this political prisoner expresses hope that “swimming in this sea of blood” will eventually lead to the “shore of freedom, justice, and equality.” Saeed Masouri, born in 1965 in Khorramabad, Lorestan, is one of the longest-standing political prisoners in Iran. On January 8, 2001, he was arrested by Ministry of Intelligence agents in Dezful on charges of “membership in the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran.” After 14 months of detention in a solitary cell at Ahvaz Intelligence Office, he was transferred to Ward 209 of Evin Prison. In 2002, this political prisoner was sentenced to death on charges of “waging war,” but later his sentence was commuted to life imprisonment. Since his arrest, Masouri has spent his years of imprisonment without a single day of furlough in Ahvaz Intelligence Detention Center, Evin Prison, Rajai Shahr Prison in Karaj, and currently in Ghezel Hesar Prison in Karaj.

Why Iran’s Regime Will Not Go to War with the West

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The recent attacks orchestrated by Tehran-backed militias have raised concerns about the Iranian regime’s enduring terrorist agenda and its potential to spark a full-blown conflict in the volatile Middle East. However, countering the regime’s aggressions does not necessarily lead to war, contrary to the narrative woven by the Iranian regime itself, as highlighted by the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) in a recent article. The Iranian regime’s survival hinges on two critical pillars: suppressing dissent at home and spreading terrorism and warmongering abroad. By supporting proxy militias, the regime aims to expand its influence strategically in regions such as Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Iraq, and North Africa, while maintaining plausible deniability. However, this reliance on proxy forces reveals an intrinsic weakness and vulnerability. “The regime’s true military capabilities are constrained, and its dependence on proxy forces underscores an intrinsic weakness and vulnerability,” states the NCRI. Despite its grandiose displays of military might and rhetoric, the regime has not retaliated against attacks on its forces and commanders in Syria and Lebanon, suggesting a reluctance to engage in direct confrontation. Moreover, the Iranian regime’s rhetoric often contradicts its actions. While it spends billions of dollars on nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs, its response to attacks on its forces has been notably restrained. This lack of retaliation has fueled frustration within its ranks, interpreting it as a sign of weakness. The regime’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei emphasized in 2018 that war is not in Iran’s interest, stating, “Because war involves two sides: we, who do not initiate conflict, and the Americans, who also refrain from starting a war as they know it would be entirely to their disadvantage.” Khamenei’s words reflect a calculated understanding that direct confrontation with Western nations would not favor the Iranian regime. The regime’s lobbyists say that a decisive confrontation with the regime would exacerbate the crisis and push the regime into war. This is a baseless claim. In fact, historical instances have shown that wherever decisive action has been taken against the regime, it has retreated. In contrast, when confronted with a softer approach, the regime becomes more assertive, intensifying its destructive behavior. In the face of Tehran’s provocations, the international community has occasionally demonstrated resolute action, forcing the regime to recalibrate its approach. The UK’s robust response to the seizure of Royal Navy personnel in 2007 resulted in Iran releasing the sailors after 13 days. Similarly, when Iran was suspected of attacking commercial oil tankers in 2019, the US and its allies deployed additional warships and conducted military exercises, compelling Iran to deny involvement and de-escalate tensions. The most notable example of resolute action was the US military’s killing of Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani in 2020. Despite the regime’s vows of severe revenge, it refrained from directly striking US forces and instead carried out symbolic retaliatory attacks through its proxy forces. This pattern of behavior indicates the regime’s aversion to risking a direct confrontation with Western nations. As the NCRI aptly summarizes, “The regime’s true military capabilities are constrained, and its dependence on proxy forces underscores an intrinsic weakness and vulnerability.” It is through resolute and decisive policies that the international community can force the Iranian regime to reconsider its approach and ultimately back down from its aggressive stance. By understanding the regime’s nature and history, the international community can address the Iranian regime’s enduring terrorist agenda without igniting a full-blown conflict in the volatile Middle East. Firm and strategic actions will not herald war, but rather compel the regime to reassess its path and seek alternative means to preserve its rule.  

Purchasing Power of Iranian Workers Halved in Past Year

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According to the state-run Etemad newspaper, the “minimum wage” for 2023, which started with a minimum of 50% inflation, only grew by 20% compared to last year. This trend has led to the real wages of workers being halved from the beginning of the year until now. Etemad newspaper reported on Sunday, January 14, that the “daily minimum wage” for the working class has reached about 1.77 million rials (approximately $3.35) for this year, which is significantly lower than the purchasing power of a wide range of goods and most food items in Iran. Based on this, the daily income figure of 1.77 million rials for 2024 is likely to increase by about 20% and will be slightly over 2 million rials (approximately $3.8) per day. However, due to the inflation gap between this year and the next, this new figure will be even further from the value of a basket of minimum food items. On Saturday, January 13, the regime’s Donya-ye Eqtesad newspaper discussed the increase in the cost of food items (caused by inflation) and its impact on workers’ monthly wages. It stated that a worker who is the head of a four-person household would have to spend about 65% of their income to provide a minimal basket of food items. Etemad newspaper asked the question, “Why are food items important, and why should the government reconsider the minimum wage for the coming year?” It stated that after the high inflation of food items caused by the elimination of preferential exchange rates, a significant portion of the income of lower-income groups was spent on food expenses. This is why statistical reports have different “inflation importance coefficients” for different income groups. Meanwhile, on December 26, 2023, the state-run Ham-Mihan newspaper reported that “the purchasing power of workers with the minimum wage has decreased by more than 65% since 2016 and has fallen below half.” It also stated that “the real minimum wage for workers this year has reached the lowest level in the past 28 years.” On January 7, Hossein Goodarzi, a member of the regime’s Majlis (parliament), addressed the regime’s president, Ebrahim Raisi in a public session and said, “People will not tolerate over 40% inflation and increasing prices of food and living items, especially the price of meat at 600,000 tomans per kilogram.” He asked him to take action as soon as possible. On January 9, Iranian media reported an “increase in the poverty index” in 14 provinces compared to the same period last year during the autumn of this year. According to this report, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province had the highest level of poverty, while Tehran province had the lowest level.

17% Increase in School Dropouts in Iran

The regime’s Tejarat News website reported a 17% increase in school dropouts in the previous academic year compared to the 2015-2016 academic year. Tejarat News, citing the regime’s Majlis (parliament) Research Center, wrote that over 911,000 individuals dropped out of school in the past academic year. The report emphasized that more than 279,000 individuals also discontinued their education during this period. The report reads in part that more than 279,000 individuals also dropped out of school during this time period. These statistics were released at a time when, according to published statistics from the Statistical Center of Iran, nearly 930,000 students dropped out of elementary, middle, and high schools during the   academic year. Based on these figures, more than 175,000 elementary school students, 198,000 middle school students, and 557,000 high school students have discontinued their education. The Statistical Center of the Iranian regime had also announced in October 2023 that at least “556,000 young Iranians” are forced to drop out of school” before entering high school due to reasons primarily related to “poverty and deprivation.” A review of inflation statistics shows that inflation in Iran was around 10% in 2016 and 2017, but it rose to over 27% in 2018. In 2019, inflation reached 35%, and in 2020 it exceeded 36%. In 2021, inflation surpassed the 46% mark, and in 2022, the country’s inflation rate remained above 46%. These statistics are derived from official reports of the Iranian regime. The Iranian regime has a long history of manipulating statistics, and the actual figures are much higher.    

Hundreds of Buildings in Tehran at Risk of Fire

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According to Ghodratollah Mohammadi, the CEO of the Tehran Fire Department and Municipal Services, “50 percent of the government buildings” in the capital do not have the organization’s approval. On Thursday, January 11, in an interview on Tehran Radio and Television, Mohammadi stated that there are “75 high-risk buildings in terms of fire” in the metropolis that have not yet been secured. He further mentioned that the number of these buildings has decreased from 129 to 75 in the past year and a half, and legal cases have been filed for these 75 buildings listed as high-risk. After the Attorney General’s Office of Iran published a list of 129 “high-risk” buildings in Tehran despite the opposition of the municipality, a member of the Tehran City Council stated in June 2023 that the list included “very high-risk” buildings, and there are about 11,000 high-risk buildings in Tehran. The member of the Tehran City Council also confirmed the existence of a “legal deficiency” in this regard and stated that now that the judiciary has intervened as the “public prosecutor,” the fate of unsafe buildings must be determined. The issue of neglecting unsafe buildings in the capital has been raised for years, and after the Plasco Building fire incident, several lists of unsafe and at-risk structures in Tehran have been compiled, which have been the subject of controversy and debate regarding their publication and details. In the same context, a member of the Tehran City Council reported that the government of regime president Ebrahim Raisi considered some firefighting budget items as “luxury goods” and eliminated them. At the same time, Hamzeh Shakib, the head of the Iran Construction Engineering Organization (ICEO), stated that over 1,000 unsafe buildings with more than 12 stories in Tehran have been identified that are susceptible to fires. Shakib stated in a press conference on July 24, 2023, that eight organizations, including ICEO, have identified these buildings, which “require special maintenance.” Mehdi Babaei, the Chairman of the Safety and Crisis Committee of the Tehran City Council, stated in June 2023 to the semiofficial ILNA news agency that after issuing warnings to these buildings, the municipality should ask the judiciary to “cut off the building’s utilities and seal it.” The head of ICEO also stated in his press conference: “Based on the lessons learned from the Plasco incident, we proposed providing the three-dimensional plans of these buildings to the fire department and analyzing the building’s collapse mechanism so that the fire department’s response and reaction can be improved during emergencies.” However, he added that ICEO does not have oversight over government buildings and its focus is on private construction and structures. Shakib also mentioned the lifespan of buildings in Iran, saying, “Currently, the average lifespan of buildings in Iran is between 30 to 40 years, while in the world, this number is between 75 to 100 years.” He emphasized the recent devastating earthquakes, including the one in Kermanshah province, stating, “The reality is that if an earthquake occurs, governments no longer have the ability to compensate for the damages.” The issue of neglecting unsafe buildings in the capital has been raised for years, and after the Plasco Building fire incident, several lists of unsafe and at-risk structures in Tehran have been compiled, which have been the subject of controversy and debate regarding their publication and details.

US Air Force Targets Iran-Backed Houthis in Yemen

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On Friday, January 12, US officials announced that US and British forces targeted the positions of the Iran-backed Houthi group in Yemen in early morning attacks. According to the Associated Press, the forces of the two countries launched a retaliatory and extensive attack using Tomahawk missiles and fighter jets, bombarding Houthi positions. In this regard, the commander of US Air Force Central Command stated that in the attack, over 60 targets were targeted in 16 regions in Yemen, including command and control positions, ammunition depots, missile launch systems, and radar systems. The Houthis have been launching drones and missiles at commercial shipping vessels in the Red Sea for weeks, many of which have been intercepted and shot down by US Navy ships in the area. Their drones and missiles are provided by Iran’s regime, and they have been acting as a terror arm for the Revolutionary Guards. Reuters also reported that a Houthi group official confirmed attacks in Sanaa, the capital of Yemen, as well as in the cities of Saada and Dhamar, and in the Al Hodeidah province. Eyewitnesses also told Reuters that the United States and Britain targeted a military base near Sanaa Airport, a military position near Taiz Airport, a Houthi naval base in Hodeidah, and military positions in the Hajjah province. US President Joe Biden declared the objective of the attacks on Houthi positions as ensuring “freedom of navigation in one of the world’s most vital waterways” and added, “These strikes are in direct response to unprecedented Houthi attacks against international maritime vessels in the Red Sea.” “Operation Prosperity Guardian—a coalition of more than 20 nations committed to defending international shipping and deterring Houthi attacks in the Red Sea,” the US president added. In the meantime, the Iranian regime has condemned the attack on its proxy group in Yemen. Lebanon’s Hezbollah, another Iranian proxy group in the Middle East, has also condemned the US and British attacks on the Houthis. Russia has called for an immediate meeting of the United Nations Security Council. The country, along with China and two other countries, abstained from voting on the US-proposed resolution in the United Nations Security Council on January 10. After the adoption of this resolution, John Kirby, Coordinator for Strategic Communications at the National Security Council in the White House said that the text of the resolution explicitly calls on the Houthis to stop these attacks and emphasizes the need for the Security Council to support the safe passage of commercial shipping and the safe transit of vessels through the Red Sea. Mr. Kirby added that the United States is not seeking a confrontation and is calling for the safe and secure passage of commercial vessels through the Red Sea. However, if this matter is not achieved, it will consult with its partners on the necessary actions. Hours before the strike on Thursday, Pentagon spokesman Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said Iran “has a role to play” in getting the Houthis to stop their “reckless, dangerous, and illegal activity.” If they did not, he said, “there will be consequences.” Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, also warned the Houthis and the Iranian regime on Thursday that the continuous attacks by Houthi rebels under the support of the Islamic Republic of Iran on commercial shipping lines in the Red Sea will have “consequences.”

Iran’s Regime Seizes Oil Tanker in Gulf of Oman

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The Navy of the Iranian regime army announced that it had seized the oil tanker St. Nicholas in the Gulf of Oman. On January 11, the Navy’s public relations department stated that the seizure of this vessel was carried out “in retaliation for the theft of an Iranian oil shipment” by the United States. According to the Tasnim News Agency, which is affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards, the Navy’s public relations department stated that the new name of this oil tanker is Suez Rajan. The mentioned oil tanker was seized in May 2023 pursuant of Washington’s sanctions against the regime. The Navy stated that it had seized the St. Nicholas in retaliation for the theft of Iranian oil by the United States and that it would transfer it to Iranian ports “for delivery to judicial authorities.” The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) had previously reported in a tweet that this vessel was targeted by “four to five armed men” wearing military uniforms and black masks, while it was approximately 50 nautical miles (about 92 kilometers) east of the coast of Oman, near the Sohar Port. The Greek shipping company Empire Navigation confirmed this news. It is reported that the crew of this oil tanker, which was sailing under the flag of the Marshall Islands, consists of 19 sailors from the Philippines and one Greek national. This vessel had loaded cargo in the port of Basra and was heading towards the Suez Canal and then to the port city of Aliaga in Turkey. The company Empire Navigation stated that all contact with St. Nicholas has been lost. The ship’s safety officer reported hearing unidentified voices on the ship, and after that, further attempts to contact the ship were unsuccessful. Ambrey, a British maritime security company, has announced that the tracking system of the oil tanker was turned off when it was heading towards the Iranian port of Jask. According to Ambrey, six men wearing military uniforms boarded the ship. According to reports, this mentioned oil tanker was involved in oil smuggling for Iran last year. Due to the violation of US sanctions against Iran, the US Navy seized this oil tanker, and then it was renamed Suez Rajan. At that time, the United States accused the Revolutionary Guards of intending to smuggle oil to China using this oil tanker and seized 980,000 barrels of oil. After the crude oil was unloaded, the ship was renamed St. Nicholas. Since the beginning of the war in Gaza, Iranian-supported Houthi rebels have carried out at least 26 attacks on commercial shipping lines in the Red Sea, leading to unprecedented maritime tensions in the region. On Wednesday January 10, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that the ongoing attacks by Houthi rebels backed by the Iranian regime on commercial shipping lines in the Red Sea will have “consequences.” Meanwhile, on Wednesday, the United Nations Security Council demanded that the Houthi rebels in Yemen, who are supported by the Iranian regime, immediately cease attacks on ships in the Red Sea and defended the United States-led coalition’s response to protect the ships. Attacks by Iran-backed militias on maritime targets in the Red Sea have disrupted shipping in the region, causing a major threat to global trade.