Iranian Regime’s Iraqi Proxy Groups in the Trap of Arrest and the Law

Following the arrest of one of the Iranian regime’s proxy operatives in Iraq, who had also been sanctioned by the United States, a large amount of cash was discovered and confiscated from his house. He was involved in money laundering and facilitating the smuggling of the Iranian regime’s sanctioned oil. Proxy groups were one of the lines and bastions that the Iranian regime had created over the past decades to protect itself. Former regime supreme leader Ali Khamenei, through Qasem Soleimani, created, armed, and supplied proxy group allies in various countries over several decades.
Iraq Sets September 30 as Deadline for Disarmament of Iranian Regime-Backed Militia Groups
Khamenei, whose corpse-carrying carnival is being witnessed in Iranian cities these days, had repeatedly and openly declared that if the regime does not set its defenses in countries like Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Palestine, and Lebanon, it would have to fight the enemy in the streets of Iranian cities. This slogan might have been useful for the Iranian regime until before 2017, but when the first widespread protests swept the streets of Iran and the Iranian people chanted “Our enemy is right here, they lie that it’s America,” it turned into a useless tool. It took a few years for the ineffectiveness of this strategy and tactic to prove itself more prominently. The internal protests of 2019 and 2022 were part of this process. But the turning point began after Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. The People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran, the Iranian Resistance Movement, which seeks regime change in Iran, had been declaring to the international community for decades that “the head of the snake is in Tehran,” but the West, which was in a sweet sleep and a mirage of finding moderates and moderation in Iran, closed its eyes to this reality. Until the danger did not just reach their ears, but a heavy blow struck their heads.

The Iranian Regime’s Proxy Groups, the Body and Tail of the Snake

This meant that the proxy groups involved in terrorism in Middle Eastern countries were the body and tail of the snake. However, the West, pursuing a policy of appeasement, did not have much interest or function to confront these proxy groups. But when the surprise blow was delivered to one of the West’s allies, after a while, the main issue, namely “the head of the snake is in Tehran,” inevitably came to the West’s table. Following the October 7 attack, the Iranian regime’s proxy groups received crushing blows one after another. Some like Assad regime in Syria were destroyed, and some like Hamas and Hezbollah received backbreaking blows. The Yemeni Houthis also received effective blows in the meantime. However, Iraq and the Iranian regime’s proxy groups in this country were on the sidelines of the attacks and blows in this process, just as the Pakistani Zainabiyoun and the Afghan Fatemiyoun were on the sidelines. It can be said that currently, the focus of the West and regional governments is on two countries and the Iranian regime’s proxy groups in them: Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Popular Mobilization Forces (Hashd al-Shaabi) and other Iranian regime proxy groups in Iraq. Following the October 7 attack, the Iranian regime’s funding, arming, and manning of its proxy groups in regional countries continued. When the West somewhat blocked the Iranian regime’s overt and cover paths for financing proxy groups, the tactic changed. Gold replaced cash. The examples discovered at Beirut Airport bear witness to this. Now, new news is arriving from Iraq. After Nouri al-Maliki, the Iranian regime’s operative for the premiership of Iraq, was sidelined due to U.S. opposition, Ali Faleh al-Zaidi took the prime ministerial seat.

Confronting the Iranian Regime’s Operatives and Terror Financiers

Under U.S. pressure, the confrontation against the Iranian regime’s Iraqi proxy groups—which were being attacked during the recent two wars, as well as before and after them—came under pressure. The pressures were of various types: military attacks, disarmament efforts, arrests, preventing the financing of terrorism, sanctions, etc. On Sunday, June 28, 2026, media reported that the Iraqi Deputy Minister of Oil, Ali Maaraj al-Bahadli, was arrested at his home in the upscale Zayouna neighborhood of Baghdad. The charge at that time was not completely clear. However, it had previously been rumored that Maaraj was accused of helping the Iranian regime’s proxy groups in Iraq that were engaged in oil smuggling. Asharq Al-Awsat reported on July 1, 2026, that the Supreme Judicial Council of Iraq announced that in the first stage, 11 million U.S. dollars and 4 billion Iraqi dinars (an amount exceeding 3 million U.S. dollars) were confiscated from Ali Maaraj al-Bahadli. Images published after his arrest indicated that bags of cash hidden inside the walls of his home were pulled out and confiscated by security forces. The council also stated that while this amount of money and several properties belonging to Maaraj al-Bahadli have been seized and confiscated, the investigation is in its early stages and will continue. After the fall of the former Iraqi regime, Maaraj al-Bahadli entered an important sector of the Iraqi oil industry with the help of the Iranian regime, becoming the CEO and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Missan Oil Company. His activities were not limited only to the oil industry. He was an individual who, while climbing the steps of his career ladder, also climbed the political ladder with the help of the Iranian regime.

From Climbing Step-by-Step to Free Fall

From 2014, with the support of the “State of Law” coalition, the Iranian regime-backed coalition led by al-Maliki, Maaraj al-Bahadli entered the Iraqi Parliament and reached the position of head of the parliament’s important Oil and Energy Committee. A position that opened his way for financing through the oil industry and for the future plans of the mullahs in Tehran. He then colluded with another prime minister supported by the Iranian regime, Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani, and played an important role in building Sudani’s “Construction and Development” coalition. Part of this role included the financing that had accrued to him through the oil industry and its smuggling. With the support of the Iranian regime and his reciprocal assistance to the Iranian regime-backed proxy groups, Maaraj al-Bahadli climbed the ladder of progress up to the threshold of being nominated for the Iraqi Ministry of Oil. But just as a ladder has steps of progress, it may also have steps of descent or fall, at a time when Maaraj al-Bahadli was spending the oil money of his own country, Iraq, on the desires and goals of the Iranian regime. His fall began when the U.S. Treasury, in May 2026, sanctioned and listed Ali Maaraj al-Bahadli under Executive Order 13902. Al-Bahadli was accused by the United States of being involved in forging certificates of origin for exported oil, blending Iraqi oil with the Iranian regime’s oil and exporting it under the name of Iraqi oil, and assisting in smuggling and facilitating the export of the Iranian regime’s sanctioned oil. Among other charges brought against Maaraj al-Bahadli is the financial support of certain Iranian regime proxy groups such as “Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq” and individuals supported by the Iranian regime such as “Salim Ahmad Said.”

Khamenei’s Wandering Corpse, the Hidden Son, and the Fate of Proxy Groups

The arrest of Ali Maaraj al-Bahadli, following the detention of another deputy minister of oil of Iraq, Adnan al-Jumaili—who is also recognized as one of the Iranian regime’s proxy operatives—indicates that confronting the Iranian regime’s Iraqi proxy groups is the capture of another bastion among those bastions that Khamenei saw as a dam blocking his imaginary enemies from reaching Tehran. But now, Khamenei’s son Mojtaba, who has been appointed as the new supreme leader, out of fear of their real internal enemies, namely the people of Iran, does not even dare to appear over his dam-less, 4-month-old, graveless father’s corpse. While fear and panic have cast their shadow over the leaders of the Iranian regime in Tehran, and no water is warmed for them from the bastion of their proxy groups, Ali Faleh al-Zaidi, the Prime Minister of Iraq, in another move following the arrest of Ali Maaraj al-Bahadli, drove a nail into the coffin of the Iranian regime. On July 4, 2026, he announced that his government has designated a significant reward for individuals who identify persons involved in corruption through the acquisition of public property via illegal methods. The experience of more than the past two decades in Iraq has proven that just like in Iran, wherever there has been talk of corruption and embezzlement, the Iranian regime’s proxy groups or its operatives have always been at the front of the line. Now, however, when the issue of confronting corruption and disarming proxy groups in Iraq has intensified, they are trying to project themselves at the back of the line! But this is a futile effort.

Ultimately, Khamenei the father and his proxy groups

Just as Khamenei the father—whom these groups could not fight for and protect in the streets of neighboring countries, and who was killed in the heart of Tehran—now these groups are also being brought to trial in the heart of their own countries. This is a war that is moving forward in parallel: in Iran between the people of Iran and the Iranian regime, and for the people of regional countries with the proxy groups spawned by the Iranian regime. History has always shown whom victory belongs to.

U.S. Treasury Revokes License Allowing Iranian Regime Oil and Petrochemical Sales

The U.S. Department of the Treasury announced on Tuesday, July 7, that it had revoked the general license covering the sale of the Iranian regime’s crude oil, petroleum products, and petrochemical products. The decision followed recent attacks on several oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, attacks that Washington has attributed to the Iranian regime and warned would have consequences. Reuters and Agence France-Presse (AFP), citing a U.S. official, reported that the U.S. government had revoked the license that had allowed the Iranian regime to sell oil. The official stressed that the regime’s actions in the Strait of Hormuz were “completely unacceptable” and would face serious consequences.
Iranian Regime Moves to Resume Oil Sales to Japan
The move comes as the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) organization has reported that three oil tankers were attacked in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding areas in recent days. U.S. officials have said that preliminary findings indicate the Iranian regime was involved in the attacks, although no group has claimed responsibility and the Iranian regime has not responded to the allegations. According to the reports, on July 6, two oil tankers—one carrying Saudi Arabian crude oil and the other transporting Qatari liquefied natural gas (LNG)—were attacked. One day later, a third tanker in the same area was struck by a projectile, incidents that have once again challenged the security of one of the world’s most important energy transit routes. Despite these tensions, the U.S. official emphasized that Washington continues to keep the diplomatic path open and that American negotiators are working in good faith to reach a final agreement with the Iranian regime. However, the official warned that the recent attacks could undermine the fragile understanding between the two sides and place the negotiations at serious risk. The revocation comes as easing restrictions on oil exports had been one of the most significant economic incentives in negotiations between the United States and the Iranian regime. With the U.S. Treasury’s latest decision, economic pressure on the Iranian regime has once again increased. Oil exports remain the Iranian regime’s most important source of foreign currency revenue. Despite U.S. sanctions, the regime has continued to export much of its oil in recent years, particularly to China. According to observers, revoking the license for oil and petrochemical sales could place additional pressure on the regime’s financial resources and further limit its ability to finance domestic expenditures and regional activities.

US and Iranian Regime Exchange Escalating Military Strikes

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Tensions between the United States and the Iranian regime entered a new phase early Wednesday, July 8. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced the launch of a large-scale operation against Iranian regime military targets, stating that the strikes were carried out in response to attacks by the regime’s forces on three commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced the start of missile and drone attacks against U.S. positions in Bahrain and Kuwait. In a statement, CENTCOM said U.S. forces had struck more than 80 targets associated with the Iranian regime in southern Iran. According to the statement, the targets included air defense systems, command-and-control centers, coastal radar sites, anti-ship missile equipment, and more than 60 IRGC fast attack boats in or around the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. Central Command emphasized that the operation was intended to reduce the regime’s offensive capability to attack commercial shipping and to ensure the security of one of the world’s most important maritime routes. CENTCOM also described the regime’s actions against commercial vessels as unprovoked, dangerous, and a clear violation of the ceasefire, warning that if Tehran continues its actions, U.S. forces are prepared to respond further. The state-run Mehr News Agency reported U.S. strikes on the Sirik area, while state television said multiple explosions had occurred in the vicinity of Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas, and villages around the counties of Qeshm and Sirik. Iranian regime officials have not yet released information on the extent of the damage or possible casualties.

Pezeshkian Rushes Back to Tehran

In response, the IRGC announced that in its first retaliation against the U.S. strikes, the IRGC Aerospace Force and Navy jointly targeted “85 key U.S. military facilities” in Bahrain and Kuwait with missiles and drones. The statement also claimed that a U.S. MQ-9 drone had been shot down over southern Iran, a claim that has not been confirmed by U.S. officials. At the same time, the state-run Fars News Agency claimed that the headquarters of the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet in Bahrain had come under attack and that several explosions had occurred at the base. However, neither the United States nor the Bahraini government has responded to the claim. In Bahrain, the country’s Ministry of Interior announced that air raid sirens had sounded and urged residents to remain calm and proceed to the nearest safe location. In Kuwait, the country’s military said its air defense systems were intercepting incoming missiles and drones. The Kuwaiti military did not identify the source of the attacks but stressed that the explosions heard were caused by air defense interception operations. Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, the Iranian regime’s unified military command, also issued a statement declaring that the U.S. attacks would be met with a “crushing response.” The headquarters claimed that the only safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz is the route managed by Iran and warned that it would not allow U.S. interference in the waterway. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Speaker of the Iranian regime’s Majlis (parliament), described the U.S. attacks and the reimposition of oil sanctions on Iran as “a violation of the memorandum of understanding,” but made no reference to the attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Taken together, these developments indicate that the confrontation between Washington and Tehran has entered an unprecedented phase. With both sides carrying out direct attacks, exchanging threats, Gulf states remaining on high alert, and growing concerns over the security of the Strait of Hormuz, the risk of the conflict expanding across the region has increased significantly.

Iran’s ‘No To Executions Tuesdays’ campaign Enters Its 128th Week

On Tuesday, July 7, the “No To Executions Tuesdays campaign” continued. The campaign, which was launched to end all forms of executions in Iran, is now being carried out simultaneously in 57 prisons across the country. The imprisoned participants in the campaign issued a statement during the 128th week of their strike, condemning the reappointment of executioner Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei as head of the judiciary and calling for global protest against executions in Iran. The prisoners’ statement reads as follows: Continuation of the “No To Executions Tuesdays” Campaign in Its 128th Week Across 57 Prisons

The Retention of Mohseni Ejei in Office Is a Serious Threat to Prisoners and Human Rights in Iran

On the eve of July 9, the anniversary of the killing of students during the July 9, 1999 student protests, the “No To Executions Tuesdays campaign” honors the memory of those who gave their lives for freedom and equality. It commemorates the day when the regime violently suppressed student protests and brutally attacked the University of Tehran dormitories.
Arrested Iranian Protesters in Critical Conditions, Human Rights Bodies Warn
According to published figures, Iran’s illegitimate regime has executed at least 15 people since June 22 and has issued the inhumane death sentence against a number of prisoners convicted of both ordinary and political charges. Last week, Judge Abolghasem Salavati, one of the Iranian regime’s most notorious judges who has issued numerous death sentences, handed down the medieval punishment of death to Arghavan Fallahi, a female political prisoner held in the women’s ward of Evin Prison. The sentence was issued despite the fact that the case was conducted under unfair conditions and under pressure from the regime’s security agencies.
Death Sentence Issued for Political Prisoner Arghavan Fallahi
Death sentences have also been issued against several people arrested during the January 2026 uprising, including Kamal Khan-Babaei, who is imprisoned in Choobindar Prison in Qazvin, and Vahid Khan-Sanami, who is held in Greater Tehran Prison. They were sentenced to death through unfair judicial proceedings intended to intimidate society. These inhumane sentences are being issued as Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, the regime’s judiciary chief, was recently reappointed by Iran’s autocratic ruler Mojtaba Khamenei. Ejei has a long record of human rights violations and, over the past four years, has overseen the highest number of death sentences carried out in the past three decades. While condemning these unjust death sentences, the “No To Executions Tuesdays campaign” calls on all international bodies and people of conscience to respond to the humanitarian catastrophe unfolding in Iran’s prisons. Death sentences are effectively decided behind closed doors through psychological and physical torture during interrogations. Therefore, everyone must take serious action, by every possible means, to pressure the regime to uphold the principles of fair trial, particularly by ensuring public court hearings in cases where the charges may result in capital punishment. Finally, we would like to note that many people have created content in support of the campaign or have asked for their anti-execution content to be published through the “No To Executions Tuesdays campaign”. This is a nationwide campaign that belongs to all striking prisoners, regardless of political affiliation, and therefore represents a broad demand that transcends groups, parties, and political movements. In addition, numerous submissions are sent to the campaign’s social media pages. If we have not republished these submissions, it is primarily to ensure that the campaign remains above political factions and belongs equally to all its members, supporters, and opponents of the death penalty. Secondly, the primary purpose of the campaign’s online platforms is to publish the weekly statements and maintain an archive of them. We thank all supporters of the campaign and everyone opposing the death penalty for producing content and organizing progressive initiatives in defense of the right to life, and we warmly extend our solidarity to all of you. Without a doubt, through resistance and collective solidarity against executions, we will prevail! On Tuesday, July 7, imprisoned participants in the “No To Executions Tuesdays campaign” are on hunger strike for the 128th consecutive week in 57 prisons across Iran.

Oil Tanker Attacked Near the Strait of Hormuz

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), a British maritime security monitoring organization, reported that an oil tanker sailing south approximately 8 nautical miles east of Limah, Oman, was struck on its port side by an unidentified projectile, causing a fire to break out on board. According to the report, no casualties or environmental pollution have been reported, and authorities are investigating the incident. Passing vessels have also been advised to navigate with caution and report any suspicious activity to UKMTO.
Tanker Trackers: Vessel Grounded in the Strait of Hormuz Belongs to Iran’s Oil Smuggling Network
The attack occurred along one of the world’s most strategically important energy shipping routes, where any maritime tension can quickly take on major security and economic implications. Media reports, citing U.S. officials, say the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of the Iranian regime fired on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday night, damaging at least two ships. Officials have not yet officially attributed direct responsibility for the attack. In previous similar incidents, attacks on ships in the waters around Oman and the Strait of Hormuz have not remained isolated maritime incidents and have rapidly escalated into military crises. It appears that the Iranian regime has once again taken global trade routes and energy security hostage.

Arrested Iranian Protesters in Critical Conditions, Human Rights Bodies Warn

Iran Human Rights (IHR), a Norway-based human rights organization, on Monday, July 6, expressed concern over the growing wave of executions of political prisoners in recent months and stressed that halting executions must be one of the main conditions of any agreement with the Iranian regime. In a report, the human rights organization warned of an escalation in executions in Iran in the coming months and said officials of the Iranian regime have accelerated the execution of prisoners, particularly political activists, following the ceasefire with the United States and Israel. According to the report, at least 101 Iranians were executed in June alone.
Iran’s ‘No to Executions Tuesdays’ Campaign Marks 125th Week
At the same time, HRANA News Agency, an Iranian human rights news outlet, reported that Kamal Khan-Babaei, who was arrested during the January 2026 protests and is being held in Choobindar Prison in Qazvin, has been sentenced to death by Branch One of the Qazvin Revolutionary Court on the charge of “moharebeh” (“waging war against God”). According to HRANA, one of the allegations cited against Mr. Khan-Babaei was “breaking two surveillance cameras.” Kamal Khan-Babaei was arrested on January 15 and spent 10 days in a detention center operated by Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence, where he was interrogated and beaten in an effort to extract a forced confession. The Human Rights Center in Iran also reported that Mohammad Moayedi-Shakib, a political prisoner held in Tehran’s Evin Prison who suffers from multiple medical conditions, including heart disease, a prostate disorder, and cervical and lumbar disc problems, began a hunger strike on Sunday, July 5, to protest the continued denial of transfer to medical facilities outside the prison. According to the human rights organization, after beginning his hunger strike, the political prisoner was threatened by the prison warden that he would be transferred to Razi Psychiatric Hospital if he continued his protest. Human rights sources also expressed concern over the life-threatening condition and deteriorating health of Rezvaneh Sadeghi, who was arrested during the January protests. According to these sources, shotgun pellets that remain lodged in the political prisoner’s head have shifted over time, with one pellet moving beneath her eye and close to the optic nerve. The movement of the pellet has caused blood clotting, severe swelling extending from the corner of her eye to above her eyebrow, persistent pain, and significant vision loss. It is reported that despite warnings from a prison guard, medical staff at Evin Prison have deemed her condition normal and are preventing Ms. Sadeghi from being transferred to a hospital. Meanwhile, in a separate report, the Human Rights Center in Iran said that Rashed Emami, an artist from Paveh and one of those arrested during the 2022 protests, was violently arrested on Monday, July 6, along with his wife, Sheler Modirzadeh, by regime forces and taken to an undisclosed location. No reliable information is currently available regarding the reasons for their arrest, the charges against them, their place of detention, or their whereabouts.

British Couple Imprisoned in Evin Prison Remain on Hunger Strike

Lindsay Foreman and Craig Foreman, two British citizens imprisoned in Tehran’s Evin Prison, are continuing their hunger strike in protest against their detention conditions and being denied contact with their family. According to HRANA, the Human Rights Activists News Agency, Lindsay has been on hunger strike for 49 days and Craig for 58 days. The physical condition of both has reportedly deteriorated. Lindsay has lost more than 14 kilograms, while Craig has lost about 16 kilograms.
British Couple Imprisoned in Iran Sentenced to 10 Years in Prison on Espionage Charges
Lindsay Foreman is suffering from severe weakness, dizziness, body tremors, low blood sugar, and fluctuating blood pressure. To reach the prison clinic, she must walk a long route that includes a corridor and about 30 steps. She has not received a medical checkup for about 10 days. The two prisoners have been denied access to essential medication, eyeglasses, books, and hygiene supplies sent by the British Embassy, despite the prison clinic and ward officials having confirmed receipt of these items. Craig and Lindsay have only been allowed to communicate with their lawyer. They are still not permitted to contact their family members, their children, or even each other. According to the source, pressure on the couple increased after they gave an interview to BBC World, during which Lindsay Foreman referred to executions in Iran. During his imprisonment, Craig Foreman has also shared a cell with prisoners sentenced to death and has witnessed some of them being taken away for execution. Craig and Lindsay Foreman were arrested in January 2025 in Kerman by the intelligence organization of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) while traveling around the world by motorcycle. Branch 15 of the Tehran Revolutionary Court, presided over by Judge Abolghassem Salavati, sentenced them to 10 years in prison on charges of “espionage.” The sentence was upheld by the appeals court in June 2025. The British couple have said that no evidence was presented against them during the court proceedings and that they were not given the opportunity to mount an effective defense.

Khamenei’s Burial Becomes Stage for Power Struggles Among Regime Factions

On the second day of the funeral ceremonies for former regime supreme leader Ali Khamenei, the event became a venue exposing divisions and internal rivalries among power factions within the Iranian regime. Contradictory slogans, warning placards, and open displays of support for certain regime figures reflected the intensifying power struggle at the highest levels of the regime following Khamenei’s death. During the July 4 ceremony, participants repeatedly chanted slogans including “Revenge, revenge,” “Death to the infiltrator,” “Death to the compromiser,” and “This is the final message, negotiations are forbidden,” expressing their opposition to the regime’s current negotiations with the U.S. over Tehran’s nuclear program. Alongside these chants, some attendees repeatedly shouted “Labbaik, Seyyed Mojtaba,” a slogan indicating efforts by certain regime factions to express support for Khamenei’s son, who was appointed as the new supreme leader. A leaflet circulating among the crowd read: “In principle, I held a different opinion; return to the Leader’s position.” The appearance of such a message, at a time when competition over the regime’s new power structure has intensified, is viewed as a sign of internal disagreements and attempts by one faction of the ruling establishment to impose its preferred policies. This was a statement made by the new leader of the Iranian regime regarding opposition to the current negotiations with the United States. Despite his warning, other factions within the regime proceeded with those negotiations. In various parts of the ceremony, regime eulogists and speakers emphasized “revenge” and opposition to any negotiations, urging attendees to chant slogans against the United States and Israel. Among the repeated slogans were “Our only slogan is revenge, revenge” and “We will kill, we will kill those whom our Imam killed.” These chants above all reflected the radical atmosphere and factional rivalries within the ruling establishment.

Mojtaba Khamenei’s Notable Absence from the Funeral Prayer Ceremony

The funeral prayer for Ali Khamenei was held on Sunday morning and led by Grand Ayatollah Jafar Sobhani, a senior Shiite cleric. The ceremony took place more than four months after Khamenei’s death. However, the most notable aspect of the event was the absence of Mojtaba Khamenei. Mojtaba Khamenei was not only absent from his father’s funeral prayer, but no audio or video recording of him has been released during the more than four months since Khamenei’s death that would indicate an active public role at the top of the regime. Although the authorities may seek to justify his absence on security grounds, the attendance of nearly all senior regime officials—including the heads of the three branches of government, commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and commanders of the IRGC Quds Force—raises serious questions about that explanation. By contrast, Ali Khamenei’s three other sons—Mostafa, Massoud, and Meysam Khamenei—who had not appeared in public since the outbreak of the war on February 28 of last year, attended the ceremony and stood beside their father’s coffin. The combination of events, slogans, and notable absences during Ali Khamenei’s burial ceremonies appears less indicative of unity and a smooth transfer of power than of intensifying infighting and competition among the Iranian regime’s rival factions in the post-Khamenei era.

New Uncertainty Surrounding Iran’s Underground Nuclear Facilities

According to the latest assessment by the U.S.-based Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), headed by nuclear expert David Albright, satellite imagery of the Iranian regime’s nuclear facilities indicates that uranium enrichment activities have not resumed at the three main sites of Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. At the same time, however, signs of ongoing construction work and vehicle traffic have been observed at the underground Kolang Gaz La mountain facility near Natanz, a site whose exact purpose remains unclear.
Iranian Regime Parliament Speaker: No Access Will Be Granted to Bombed Sites
The facility, Pickaxe Mountain (or Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La), is located south of the Natanz complex. According to the Albright Institute’s report, it remains accessible, open, and under construction. However, the institute emphasized that there is currently no indication that it is ready for operational use. At Natanz, satellite imagery shows that large sections of the complex remain devastated, with no significant repair work observed at the main entrances or in areas associated with uranium enrichment. The electrical infrastructure and industrial systems also remain damaged, and according to the institute, there is no indication that enrichment operations are being restored at the site. At Fordow, the entrances to the main tunnels are also reported to remain blocked. However, the Iranian regime has constructed earthen and rock barriers along the access roads leading to the tunnels. According to the Albright Institute’s analysis, these barriers are intended to prevent the rapid movement of vehicles and slow any potential operation against the facility. At Isfahan, the tunnel entrances also remain covered with earth, and satellite imagery shows no signs that the access routes have been reopened or that equipment has been removed from inside the tunnels. The main uncertainty now lies not at Natanz, Fordow, or Isfahan, but at Kolang Gaz La—a concealed, deeply buried facility lacking official transparency, where it remains unclear what the Iranian regime has hidden or what stage of its nuclear activities it is preparing for.

Iranian Regime Moves to Resume Oil Sales to Japan

Reuters reported on Friday, July 3, citing three Iranian and Western sources, that Iran has begun negotiations to sell oil to Japanese companies. The sources said that potential Japanese buyers of Iranian oil are seeking a longer exemption from U.S. sanctions and guarantees for safe shipping conditions in the Persian Gulf. Under its recent memorandum of understanding with the Iranian regime, the United States authorized Iranian oil sales for a period of 60 days. Before this agreement, Iran’s oil exports were subject to U.S. sanctions. Those sanctions prompted many Asian buyers of Iranian oil, including South Korea, India, and Japan, to halt their imports. In recent years, China had been the only major buyer of Iranian oil.
Escalating Iran-US Conflict Cuts Strait of Hormuz Traffic, Lifts Oil Prices
The current U.S. Treasury Department exemption allowing the sale of Iranian crude oil, petrochemicals, and petroleum products remains valid until August 22, and it is still unclear whether it will be extended or allowed to expire. Reuters said that Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the U.S. Treasury Department did not respond to its requests for comment on the report.

Oil exports from the Persian Gulf increased last month

At the same time as the Reuters report, data from several global shipping intelligence firms showed that oil exports from the Persian Gulf increased by more than 3 million barrels per day in June compared with the previous month, reaching more than 10 million barrels per day. However, that figure remains 40% below the average monthly level before the recent war in the Middle East. Before the recent war involving the United States, Israel, and the Iranian regime, about 16.5 million barrels per day of oil and condensates were exported from the Persian Gulf. Data from Kpler show that combined exports of crude oil and condensates from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran increased by more than 3.5 million barrels per day in June, reaching 10.07 million barrels per day. Vortexa, another maritime intelligence company, estimated exports of oil and petroleum products from the Persian Gulf at 10.2 million barrels per day in June. Reuters said that the United Arab Emirates led the increase in Persian Gulf oil exports by allowing millions of barrels of stranded crude oil in the Persian Gulf to reach international markets, helping reduce oil prices to pre-war levels. Data from Kpler and Vortexa show that the United Arab Emirates’ exports in June were more than 1 million barrels per day higher than in May. According to Kpler, Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports increased by 768,000 barrels per day in June, reaching more than 4.5 million barrels per day. During the war, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates routed part of their exports through pipelines that bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Vortexa’s data showed that exports from Iraq and Kuwait increased to about 800,000 barrels per day. Vortexa estimated Iran’s oil exports in June at 640,000 barrels per day, representing an increase of more than 70% in the country’s oil exports. The increase in Middle Eastern oil exports followed the recent memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States. Under the agreement, Iran has committed to guaranteeing the safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days. In return, the United States lifted its blockade of Iranian ports. Before the 40-day war, the Strait of Hormuz carried about 20% of the world’s crude oil and liquefied gas consumption. Following its closure by Iran, energy prices surged and a number of countries experienced supply shortages.