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Iran’s Government and Its Fear of “A Virus Worse Than COVID-19”

The skyrocketing prices of livelihood have put Iran’s people in such a predicament that officials, state media, and government affiliates are constantly acknowledging it these days.

Among them is Abdol Reza Rahmani Fazli, the Minister of Interior, who said: “Expensiveness has caused many problems for people.” (Tasnim, March 11)

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of the parliament, also acknowledged the “Instability of prices”, and acknowledged the high cost of primitive goods, including chicken, and promised to control prices next year. Hosseini Eshkevari, a member of the assembly of experts, also said: “People are in need of livelihood. This unbridled expensiveness is not a joke. What is this for?” (State TV, Channel 5, February 19)

Meanwhile, as usual, Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani has attributed the dire economic situation and the high cost of goods to sanctions and said: “The high price of some goods is a consequence of the country’s widespread sanctions.” (President.ir, March 9)

He mentioned only ‘some goods’, while the price of all the necessities of life is constantly increasing, and the high price has taken people’s breath away.

And who does not know that the current inflation is on the one hand due to the institutionalized plundering by the regime and on the other hand due to the spending of people’s property for the anti-national nuclear project and foreign interference and export of terrorism to countries in the region.

Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Expediency Discernment Council, also said about this situation: “This inefficient state of the country’s economic management must really end. From 2014 to this year, people’s purchasing power has fallen sharply.

“Now an important part of the problems is not related to sanctions, but to poor management; with inadvertently, they have drastically devalued the currency against foreign currencies. You can also see the status of the stock market. Economic executives claim that both the wheel of the centrifuge and the wheel of people’s lives are circulating. Such words are strange and sad in this situation.” (Fars, March 7)

The Supreme Leader’s representative in the city of Mashhad, Ahmad Alam al-Hoda, while acknowledging the skyrocketing prices of goods and the scarcity of people’s livelihood, attacked the Rouhani government and said: “Today, we have many livelihood and economic problems in the country, and the issue of these problems and high prices has reached a point where the leadership has raised this as a high point of their concern.

“Are livelihood problems due to US sanctions? Sanctions may be effective, but our problems are not because of it. Our problems in the social arena today are mainly due to the fact that those in the country who became responsible are not jihadists. If the officials of this system and the country were jihadists, today, not a single bit of these problems, worries and livelihood worries would exist.” (Fars, March 11)

The spread of poverty among the people has caused the poor to remove meat from their table and the middle class to reduce its consumption. According to the report of the Parliamentary Research Center, in 2019, the amount of meat consumption by the middle class has decreased by more than 30 percent compared to 2017.

The Aftab-e-Yazd acknowledged on March 4: “Unfair distribution of resources not only makes it impossible for a section of society to enjoy the desired well-being, but also affects other individual and social aspects of their lives. How can a worker not suffer from complications when he or she is unable to support himself / herself?”

Earlier, Mohammad Mehdi Farvardin, a member of the parliament from Firoozabad in Fars province, had inevitably admitted: “In addition to the coronavirus, we are witnessing far worse viruses such as high costs, discrimination, rampant inflation and the devaluation of the national currency, which have disrupted people’s livelihoods and targeted the souls of our loved ones.” (ICANA, January 19)

And finally, the state media conclude:

“When survival is at stake, one example can be fury.” (Resalat, March 2)

Or “when the waves of dissatisfaction move and quickly turn into a not expected violent storm, it will not leave anything behind itself.” (Mardom Salari, March 7)

Iran: An Ocean of Disarray

“A brief study shows that there is no theory in any of the world’s five continents that creates different kinds of mess like economic, social, management, and other disarray as big as our country, which use as topic for writing articles and press notes,” wrote Iran’s state-run SMT News daily on March 7.

The author portrayed current dilemmas, crises, and disorders in Iran as an ocean. However, he only shed light on the approaches, remarks, positions, and performances of the Health Minister Saeed Namaki and his aides in the National Covid-19 Task Force.

Nonetheless, as he mentioned, it is possible to estimate numerous impacts on people’s lives and psyches through the eyes of a Tehran resident observing daily traffic. This is merely a drop of citizens’ ocean of problems, and officials do nothing except rubbing salt on people’s wounds.

The horrible situation in bus stations and metros has left no way to obey health protocols and social distancing in such places. This status quo is the outcome of harrowing inconsistency in policymaking and planning for containing the coronavirus outbreak and decreasing the toll between health and administrative officials.

Such circumstances have become regular in Iran while President Hassan Rouhani looks at citizens from inside his vehicle, describing people as happy and satisfied. However, the people realize that even municipal officials in Tehran do not implement anti-coronavirus decisions made by the President and his aides.

Hollow Predictions

Today, many former officials explicitly admit they ignored research and inquiry of dilemmas since the beginning of the Islamic Republic regime when rooting society’s grave crises and catastrophes.

“No one of our slogans was about improvement. Instead, we chanted many ideological slogans. However, it is impossible to pursue ideological slogans when the people are hungry,” SMT News added.

The FATF Crisis and the Incurable Pain of Iran’s Government

They surprisingly declare their regret about forgetting science, saying that scientific works have become worthless. They bluntly say, “Most university theses are either fabricated, purchased, or copied of others’ works.” In reality, unscientific methods and decisions have brought enormous dilemmas to the people, breaking society’s back.

For instance, people have to struggle hard to achieve one bottle or package of edible oil, which is among essential needs. While health professionals warn about the fourth wave of the coronavirus outbreak, impoverished people should spend a lot of time in crowded queues for edible oil while its price has increased by 100 percent compared to the past year.

“Experts say that [the government’s] refusal to allocate adequate foreign exchange currency during recent months and an increase in smuggling of goods are the most important reasons for the shortage of goods and high prices. The approved price of one package of edible oil is 610,000 rials [$2.44]. However, the people have to purchase each package for more than 1,200,000 rials [$4.80],” wrote Bazar website on March 7.

This is while no day goes by without people’s protests against rampant poverty and miserable conditions. In response, officials conceal this horrific situation with fabricated statistics. However, some media and officials have leaked parts of the truth during political rivalries.

“According to latest reviews, Iranian workers are among the poorest annuitants in Mideast countries. Countries whose workers were already working in Iran have better conditions. In a country like Iran, many people suffer from livelihood dilemmas, and the middle class is shrinking every day,” wrote Ebtekar daily on March 8.

What is the Solution for Iran’s Confused Economy?

Last week, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei ordered officials to resolve high prices. He said that the solution is in experts’ methods. However, he seemed to intentionally show himself unaware of what is going in the country. In recent months, all experts had frequently provided details and statistics about the root of economic dilemmas, which all end up pointing to the Supreme Leader’s Office and his imprudent officials.

“Since 2018, economic challenges had drawn out the country’s economy to a stormy sea. With a glance at the market and public services, we realize a confusion in economic decision-making and confronting the situation,” wrote Akhbar-e Sanat daily on March 8.

However, Ali Shamkhani, the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) secretary, implicitly mentioned the country’s critical situation. “Imprudence is the greatest problem of the Islamic Republic of Iran… Until now, the government covered up or balanced out this problem with oil revenues,” said Shamkhani in an interview with Radio France Internationale on March 8.

Such dilemmas are merely parts of the government’s disarray and hyper challenges. However, each one is likely to ignite a major crisis for officials, which goes to public distrust and hatred toward the entire ruling system. In the past four decades, the government resorted to violence to silence society’s cries and demands. However, it just fueled public ire and placed more nationwide protests on the horizon.

Pressure on Biden Could Also Effect EU Policy Toward Iran’s Regime and Its Opposition

This week, 140 US lawmakers joined in sending a letter to President Biden which urged him to pursue a more comprehensive agreement with Iran. Biden has previously stated that his administration’s long term goal is to secure concessions from Tehran with respect to not only its nuclear program but also its penchant for destructive regional intervention, its support of international terrorism, its domestic human rights abuses, and so on. But the letter seems to reflect skepticism on both sides of the aisle regarding the prospect of Biden achieving that goal with the tactics that are presently on the table. Half of the signers were Republicans and half were Democrats.

Similar bipartisanship was on display the previous week when the Organization of Iranian-American Communities hosted an online conference to discuss the issues raised by a House resolution that is currently under consideration and has acquired more than 150 co-sponsors from both parties. H. Res. 118 focuses on human rights abuses and crackdowns on dissent inside Iran, but notes that those crackdowns are driven by the Iranian regime’s anxiety over an ascendant opposition movement that demonstrates “the Iranian people’s desire for a democratic, secular, and non-nuclear Republic of Iran.”

The resolution and subsequent letter stop short of dismissing the sort of diplomacy that is apparently favored by the Biden administration. But in highlighting the notion that the Iranian people and the Iranian regime are at odds over the country’s nuclear program, the resolution hints at an idea that was endorsed by a number of the lawmakers in the OIAC conference: that the only means of conclusively preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon is by facilitating a change of government in Tehran.

None of the lawmakers in question intended this idea to be an endorsement of policies that would lead to another war in the Middle East. Rather, they referenced it in support of one of the central objectives of the House resolution, namely encouraging the US and its allies to stand with “the people of Iran who are continuing to hold legitimate and peaceful protests against an oppressive and corrupt regime.”

Those protests have been taking place on a particularly large scale since the end of 2017. In December of that year, a protest over worsening economic indicators broke out in the city of Mashhad and helped to spark a nationwide uprising that encompassed well over 100 other cities and towns. As the movement spread, its participants laid the blame for the economic situation at the feet of the theocratic regime, arguing that the system that created those problems could never be the system that fixed them. With slogans like “death to the dictator,” protesters clearly endorsed the platform of regime change that had long been embodied by the country’s main opposition group, the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI-MEK).

Even the Iranian regime’s supreme leader acknowledged in the midst of those protests that the MEK had played a leading role in planning and staging them. His statement served both as a warning about the prospect of further uprisings and as a call for widespread crackdowns by institutions like the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Both of these things ultimately came to pass. Before the initial uprising ended in January 2018, dozens of protesters were killed and thousands were arrested and placed at risk of torture, multi-year prison sentences, and even execution. Yet Iran’s activist community soon responded favorably to a call from NCRI’s President-elect Maryam Rajavi for a “year full of uprisings,” and in November 2019 there was another nationwide outbreak of protests, this one at least 50 percent larger than its predecessor.

Warnings persist about further MEK-led demonstrations. The coronavirus pandemic has served to limit the opportunities for organizing those demonstrations on a very large scale, but it has also provided still more fuel for the Iranian people’s deep resentment toward the regime’s mismanagement of domestic affairs and its tendency to place self-serving objectives – such as the furtherance of the Iranian nuclear program – ahead of the dire needs of the civilian population. In the meantime, protests have periodically flared up in specific regions, and some of them have been very serious.

On Monday, as she delivered her keynote speech at a virtual conference marking International Women’s Day, Maryam Rajavi described the event as taking place “amidst the blazing flames of the blood-drenched uprising of the people of Baluchistan.” She went on to say that the protests in question, which were sparked by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps killing several fuel porters in the border region who had complained of the regime’s interference with their only available source of income, were “the continuation of the volcanic eruptions in November 2019.”

Unfortunately, the implications of both movements are similar, in that regime authorities promptly responded with unrestrained violence, driven no doubt by their fears over the threat those movements posed to their very hold on power. During the November 2019 uprising, the IRGC opened fire on crowds of protesters in various cities and, according to a report from Amnesty International, aimed their weapons with fatal intent. Consequently, about 1,500 participants and innocent bystanders are estimated to have been killed in the space of only a few days.

Dozens of people have reportedly been killed in the past week or so in the province of Sistan and Baluchistan, but authorities have also cut off access to the internet in the region, thereby slowing the release of information to the wider world. The death toll may prove to be much greater than initial reports have suggested, but regardless of the specific numbers, they might have been avoided if Western leaders had been more willing to listen, over the past several years, to calls for a different set of tactics aimed at a broader set of goals in dealing with the Islamic Republic.

The potential impact on Iran’s human rights situation might have been realized regardless of whether these appeals were aimed specifically at addressing prior abuses or just at the nuclear issues that are much closer to the center of the international community’s attention. In the US, House Resolution 118 represents one of these categories, while direct appeals to President Biden tend to represent the other. And both categories are well-represented among America’s European allies, as well, even though there is arguably less grounds for optimism regarding the response from officials representing the European Union and its member states.

The EU’s head of foreign policy, Josep Borrell, made a point of visiting Iran within days of taking on his role. That happened to be only about a month after the November 2019 uprising and the resulting crackdown, and Borrell’s effort to expand relations with the Islamic Republic seemed to convey Western indifference to the plight of the Iranian people, as well as to Iran’s nuclear commitments, which were then on the verge of being violated in their entirety.

This message can still be reversed, but in light of the differences between Borrell’s Iran policy and Biden’s, the latter will surely have to take the lead. He can do so by continuing to exert pressure on the Iranian regime over its full range of malign activities, rather than reentering the deeply flawed nuclear agreement that his predecessor exited in 2018. In this way, the US can begin to express support for the Resistance movement that stands ready to transform Iran into a peaceful and non-nuclear state. And once the EU sees the value of that policy, it may finally follow suit.

Iran’s Refusal To Vaccinate People Against COVID Is Backfiring

Since late last year, countries all over the world have been doing their best to ramp up the vaccination effort and achieve some sort of normal for their citizens, hopefully before mutated strains can increase the danger.

But one exception to that is Iran, a country that  did not institute a lockdown and is now refusing to buy any of the World Health Organisation-approved vaccines, which is putting the entire world at risk, not to mention Iranians.

Health officials are openly worrying about the problem, with Tehran Covid-19 Task Force chief Alireza Zali saying that the new wave of the coronavirus is “inflaming” on March 1, and National Covid-19 Task Force spokesperson Alireza Raisi saying on February 20 that the “pace of virus spread is very high”.

Things have gotten so bad that even the state-run media has criticised the government’s mishandling of vaccinations, with Arman daily saying that global vaccinations are effective, even against mutated strains, and criticised the mullahs for failing to protect the people.

The ISNA news agency stated that this vaccination campaign has so far protected 225 million people in 100 countries, while Mostaghel daily pointed out that even war-torn Afghanistan has got half a million doses, compared with Iran’s 0.

This is all because Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei banned the import of the vaccine for no logical reason, which means that other officials are having to promise that a domestic vaccine will be out later this year, subject to testing.

The truth is that Iranian officials are terrified that a Covid-19 vaccine would allow the Iranian people to once again gather in large crowds, which would mean increased protests against the system and the overthrow of the mullahs. For the past 12 months, the government has used the pandemic as a way to suppress protests and keep its shaky grip on power.

Before the pandemic, the Iranian government was facing multiple protests each day and had only barely suppressed three major protests in two years. It would not at all be surprising that another one would happen again so soon.

The coronavirus allowed Khamenei and President Hassan Rouhani to divert attention away from their disastrous rule, with Khamenei even describing it as a “blessing”. But they couldn’t even manage that because the attention is back on them now and the Iranian people are furious at being used as cannon fodder against the virus.

The Hamdeli daily wrote: “Officials’ behaviours seem that they missed the increase in coronavirus death toll and new cases, and cannot tolerate a decrease in Covid-19 patients.”

Two Iranian Fuel Porters Killed; Three Injured Last Week

Two Iranian fuel porters have been killed by security forces in the past week, while three others, including a child, were injured in arbitrary shootings.

In Mirjaveh, south-eastern Iran, on March 8, the Iranian police began shooting at a car that was driving away, causing the car to overturn. The crash killed fuel porter Attallah Gazouie and seriously wounded his father Mazar, with reports circulating that he’s in a coma.

On March 7, in Minab, the police also shot at the car of fuel porter Ahmad Qasemi, who died because of the seriousness of his injuries.

On March 6, 16-year-old Mehdi Kolahizadeh Mameghani was shot by police in East Azerbaijan Province, north-western Iran. An informed source told the Human Rights News Agency that police had stopped Mameghani and asked for his license, but because the boy was young and scared over not having a drivers’ license, he drove off.

The police fired three shots before the car stopped and now doctors at  the Shohada Hospital in Tabriz are worried that Mameghani may never walk normally again.

The previous day, police opened fire on border porter Hojat Ghezavat without warning in Kermanshah, western Iran. Ghezavat was taken to the hospital.

The Iranian government has a long history of arbitrarily shooting and killing porters carrying goods across the borders. In fact, it’s something that happens almost daily, with the authorities claiming that they are cracking down on smuggling.

But the truth is that the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) control a major smuggling network and they actually want to stop people from taking away business from them.

The border porters in Iran carry heavy loads across mountainous terrain on their backs for little money. They wouldn’t do all this, risking not just murder at the hands of Iranian police, but also avalanches, falls, hyperthermia, and hypothermia, if they weren’t desperate.

There are so few jobs there that they have no choice if they want to continue putting food on the table. This is a direct consequence of the Iranian’s 42-year corruption binge, whereby Iranians in border provinces face unrivalled unemployment.

The 2020 report by a human rights group stated that at least 204 Iranians were directly or indirectly killed or wounded by state security forces that year alone, with 74 killed – including 36 border porters, 5 fuel carriers and 33 other citizens – and 130 injured. How can this continue to happen without consequence?

Where Have the Wages of Iran’s Workers Gone?

“Our salary is 2 million, the poverty line is 10 million.”

This cry reflects the dimensions of pain and suffering that have now gripped most Iranians. Indeed, why, when the poverty line in Iran is at least 10 million tomans, is the minimum wage about 2 million and set to be just 3.5 million next year? To answer this question, we first review Article 41 of the government’s labor law.

“Workers’ wages, salaries, benefits and holidays should be calculated based on the real inflation rate in the country.
Every year, the Supreme Labor Council is obliged to determine the minimum wage for different parts of the country or different industries according to the following criteria:

  1. The minimum wage for workers according to the percentage of inflation announced by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
  2. The minimum wage, without taking into account the physical and mental characteristics of the workers and the characteristics of the work assigned, must be sufficient to support a family, the average number of which is announced by the authorities.”

But why does the regime not follow its own law?

The state-run newspaper Resalat wrote on February 28: “Workers lose 30 to 40 percent of their purchasing power each year.”

Iran’s Army of Starving People Like a Volcano Waiting To Explode

Meanwhile, the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) and companies affiliated with the supreme leader Ali Khamenei, which control about 60 percent of the country’s economy and labor force, are making huge profits. Last year, the price of a Pride (Iran’s car) increased from 25 million tomans to 105 million tomans. But have the salaries of the workers of Iranian machine-building factories also quadrupled?

Has a more than 100 percent increase in housing prices led to a more than 100 percent increase in the wages of construction workers?

The answer is no.

The reason why workers’ wages are not increasing is the astronomical looting that the regime and Khamenei’s affiliated institutions are taking away from them.

The state-run Etelaat newspaper wrote on April 11 about the approval of the Supreme Labor Council of the regime: “The minimum wage for workers in the new year (2020) was set at 1.835 million tomans.”

Of course, this figure was so scandalous that they had to add another 100,000 tomans a few weeks later to silence the protests.

The state news agency ILNA on July 30, 2020, in a report, acknowledged that: “It is always the government that opposes raising workers’ wages.”

“The government has always opposed a fair and adequate increase in workers’ wages, claiming that wages are inflationary; This is while the government itself has been one of the biggest generators of inflation by injecting liquidity under the name of subsidy. This fact is clearly seen even in the published official reports.”

As for the minimum wage in 2021, the situation has not changed much, and it is many times at risk of poverty. The government website of Eqtesad-e-24 in this regard wrote:

“At present, the government has set a minimum of 3.5 million tomans for its employees next year, and it seems unlikely that government representatives will pay more than this amount.”

But where do the rights that are denied to workers and other disadvantaged sections of society really go?

The state-run newspaper Arman on February 17 gave an indication, writing: “If today people are forced to borrow even in the field of “bread”, one should look for the money that is spent and forgiven by the children of officials.”

The next example is related to the burdensome situation of the retirees in Iran, as the state-run daily Gostaresh News on January 27 admitted: “A sum of money was taken from Shasta (Iran’s Social Security Investment Company), and this was apparently given to the national team coach, and this number, which was the money of the retirees, by order of the First Vice President to give the debts of the Ministry of Sports and Youth in some way.”

The next example is the regime’s proxy forces. Former member of parliament Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh on May 20, 2020 said: “We gave 20 to 30 billion dollars to Syria.”

And the last example was given by the regime’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf as he said: “When the country has $100 billion in revenue, we have inflation and high costs, and our oppressed people become weaker, and speculators, rent-seekers, and profiteers get fatter. When the country earns $15 billion, we still have inflation and high prices, again, rent-seekers become fatter, the underprivileged become more and weaker. This is the fact.”

NCRI Report on Women’s Rights in Iran for IWD 2021

On International Women’s Day, which was Monday, the Women’s Committee of the National Council of Resistance of Iran published their Annual Report on the lives of women in Iran, including the struggles they face to have their basic rights respected. Here, we will focus on the main takeaways.

COVID-19

As with most of the world, the coronavirus has drastically impacted women’s rights, especially in the fields of employment, healthcare, and childcare.  The NCRI highlighted that, as of publishing the report, there had been at least 230,000 coronavirus deaths and the country was in its fourth wave, but still the mullahs were banning the import of vaccines and promising to start vaccinating everyone in 2022.

Poverty

The Iranian economy is floundering and millions are in poverty, which has led to such shocking instances as parents selling their vital organs – including hearts – to put food on the table for their families, even if it means their death.

Read More:

Iran’s Female Breadwinners Are Fighting Losing Battle Against Deadly Poverty

Some parents have even died from suicide along with their children because of poverty and women are more likely to be impoverished than men because their jobs are less secure and they’re more likely to be taking time off for childcare.

Protests

Women have been at the forefront of the five major protests over the past four years and that shows no sign of letting up. The NCRI Women’s Committee said that these “courageous women” provided a “beacon of hope in the dark of the night” and gave them “great hope for change” in spite of the misery inflicted by the mullahs.

Throughout the past year, the mothers of execution victims and those who died in the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) downing of the Ukrainian Airliner in January 2020, remained active in their quest for justice, which brought hope over the prosecution of Iran’s leaders. In addition, women were also the leading voices at protests by workers, retirees, and defrauded investors.

The NCRI Women’s Committee wrote: “We hope to have brought to light the most crucial issues concerning Iranian women, namely the Iranian regime’s brutal attempt to suppress all and every voice of freedom, the various aspects of violence against women both sponsored by the state or promoted by state laws and policies, and the whopping gender gap in Iran as a result of gender discrimination in all fields.”

Iran’s Human Rights Abuses in February 2021

As usual at the start of a new month, we are going to look back at the human rights situation in Iran, as documented by the Iran Human Rights Monitor. It will not make for easy reading and it’s really not supposed to, but it’s necessary to warn you about this before you read further.

One of the major human rights stories in Iran in February 2021 was the authorities’ crackdown on protests by Baluch fuel porters in Saravan, Sistan and Baluchistan province, that left 40 unarmed people killed and 100 wounded.

The protests began at an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) base near the Iran-Pakistan border on February 22 after the IRGC closed the border. The IRGC then opened fire on the unarmed protesters, who may have been trying to enter the building after being stuck without food or water for days at the border, unable to complete their job.

The IRGC shut down the internet in a bid to stop the news from spreading but protests continued for a week and spread across the province.

Amnesty International has since called for an independent investigation.

Then, of course, we have all the typical human rights violations that are seen far too often in Iran, including executions, torture, and discrimination against minorities.

At least 34 people were executed in Iran last month, including four political prisoners and one woman.

In a particularly bizarre turn of events, the woman – Zahra Esma’ili – had died from a heart attack in Rajai Shahr Prison of Karaj on February 17, after seeing 16 others hanged, and the government hanged her dead body anyway, according to her lawyer, Omid Moradi.

Esma’ili was innocent, only taking responsibility for the murder of her abusive husband, Intelligence Ministry managing director Alireza Zamani, to save her teenage daughter from prison and a death penalty.

Regarding the political prisoners, all four Arab Ahvazis – Jasem Heidari, Ali Khosraji, Hossein Silavi, and Naser Khafajin – were executed in Sepidar prison on February 28, just minutes after their final family visit ended. The prisoners have gone on hunger strike on January 25 to protest not seeing their families and being mistreated by prison authorities.

In another case of the authorities mistreating a prisoner of conscience, Gonabadi Dervish Behnam Mahjoubi died in a Tehran hospital on February 21 after being given a large quantity on an unknown medication in Evin Prison because there wasn’t a doctor at the infirmary when he went there. He’d previously been denied appropriate medical care during his two-year sentence for peaceful protest.

Iranian Media: Neither Economy Cycle nor Centrifuges Are Running

“We vowed, ‘both centrifuges and the economy cycle would spin,’ and we kept our promises. We made nuclear energy priceless,” said Iranian President Hassan Rouhani during the March 3 cabinet session.

The President’s remarks faced severe criticism. “Rouhani does not realize the people’s pockets are empty. I recommend he speak less during the remaining months of his administrations’ life,” said Jabbar Kouchakinejad, a member of the Parliament’s (Majlis) Budget Commission, in an interview with Dana News website.

“Rouhani’s assessment or people’s pockets, which one is closer to reality?” Keyhan daily titled in its March 4 edition, slamming the President for his baseless claims. As the mouthpiece of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the paper mentioned the Rouhani administration’s economic failures in the past eight years.

“While the economy’s cycle has fallen in the most unprecedented inflation record in recent decades and does not spin, Rouhani claimed, ‘Today both our economy’s cycle and centrifuges spin better.’ The inflation rate and the poverty line have reached over 50 percent and 100 million rials [$400], respectively, while the poverty line was around 20 million rials in 2013—when Rouhani took office,” Keyhan wrote.

Furthermore, Javan daily, affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), criticized Rouhani for raising false information. “Neither the economy nor centrifuges ran… Talking to the people and official statistics show the truth is another thing,” Javan wrote on March 4.

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“Currently, we are far from our nuclear capabilities from 2012 to 2014. Our imports and exports have approximately been half of 2013… For the first time, investment has become less than the total depreciation of capital in the country, which is unprecedented since 1988… The average economic growth was nearly zero in the past eight years,” Javan added.

Vatan-e Emrouz daily also blamed Rouhani for people’s dire living conditions. “Rouhani’s peculiar remarks about his promises in the 2013 Presidential campaign,” titled the daily on March 4. “It was spun, but backwards… the people are experiencing the most extreme living situation since the Islamic Revolution in 1979. Nowadays, people purchase meat in installments and face a boom of buying chicken’s legs. Furthermore, edible oil has become rare,” the daily wrote.

“Point-to-point inflation is more than 50 percent. Housing prices have increased by 550 percent. Unprecedented devaluation of rial against the dollar and the average economic growth of zero percent are only parts of the [government’s] record in the financial field,” Vatan-e Emrouz added.

Moreover, the daily warned about public disappointment and society’s backlash against the government’s failures. “The peak of the [Rouhani] administration’s economic failures was when financial grievances ignited protests in the country, which were seized upon by opposition groups,” Vatan-e Emrouz concluded.

Resalat daily, affiliated with the most fundamentalist party of Motalefeh, prodded Rouhani in its March 4 edition. “Rouhani’s latest claim was studied. Nothing is running. Probably, you have vertigo,” the daily wrote.

“Centrifuges’ spinning, which was Iran’s main card in negotiations, has stopped. There is no news about the economy’s cycle. The people’s food basket is shrinking every day. However, those, who had insider trading, are daily becoming richer. They have benefited from disappearing $18 billion of the country’s foreign exchange reserves,” Resalat added, pointing to Rouhani allies’ corruption cases and embezzlements.

And Farhikhtegan daily, controlled by Ali Akbar Velayati, Khamenei’s top advisor and former Foreign Minister, criticized the President. “Rouhani’s comments have no place, and, in fact, the people’s living conditions would not improve easily. The misery index, which contains inflation and unemployment statistics, is at around the 67 mark. This number was below 20 in 2017—when Rouhani was re-appointed by Khamenei and started his second presidency round,” the daily wrote.

These political rivalries on the cusp of the 2021 Presidential elections show confusion among high-ranking officials in Iran. On the one hand, Khamenei’s appointees blame Rouhani and reformists for people’s dire living conditions. On the other hand, Rouhani had precisely followed Khamenei’s path, and he did not have the power to defy Khamenei’s orders.

In the 2017 Presidential campaign, Rouhani exploited public hatred against the suppression and execution, forcing Khamenei to re-appoint him. In Hamedan, he implicitly reminded the notorious background of his rival Ebrahim Raisi, current Judiciary Chief, saying, “Our people will once again announce that they do not want those who only know prison and execution in the past 38 years.”

Rouhani became President. Raisi was defeated, but a few months later, he was appointed as the Judiciary Chief by Khamenei. Raisi’s running mate Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf also become the Majlis Speaker during the controversial Parliamentary elections in February 2020.

In a nutshell, Khamenei pulled the strings to control public hatred and to preserve his rule. However, after the coronavirus outbreak and the government’s horrible management, economic failures, and worsening human rights situation in recent years, the people have declared that they no longer trust the current establishment and pursue fundamental changes.

“Reformists, principalists, the game is over,” protesters frequently chanted during nationwide protests in December 2017-January 2018, November 2019, and January 2020.

The FATF Crisis and the Incurable Pain of Iran’s Government

One major point of contention in the factional feuding that exists in Iran is the issue of the regime joining the international conventions related to the Financial Action Task Force (FATF).

This dispute was reignited after Iran’s president Hassan Rouhani asked the regime’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei for the Expediency Discernment Council to reconsider the relevant bills, as their non-approval would block trade with the international community.

Khamenei later wrote to the Expediency Council to reconsider the issue. A statement by 205 members of the parliament against the FATF also exacerbated the crisis.

Of course, a number of members of the regime’s parliament did not join this act and didn’t sign the statement. One of them said to Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the parliament speaker, in a meeting on March 2: “Of course, this is the opinion of the signatories of the statement, not the opinion of the parliament.” (ICANA, March 2)

In the field of social consequences of not joining the FATF, Rouhani warned the Expediency Discernment Council: “But if we do not join, and if these bills are not implemented, explain how much it costs anyway and who should bear this cost.” (State TV News Channel, March 3)

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Meaning of Iran’s Return to the FATF Blacklist 

Immediately after the speeches of Rouhani, Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of the Expediency Discernment Council, came to the scene and while admitting the deadlock with the promise of review next year, he nullified the dream of a deal with the US and the lifting of sanctions and said:

“One of the ministers said, approve this so that we can join the FATF, because they may lift any of those sanctions. Well, we are waiting until April. As soon as the sanctions are lifted, we will come here and discuss. For example, we agree, but this is also ambiguous.” (State TV News Channel, March 3)

Meanwhile, referring to the global isolation of the regime, the former director of the regime’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said: “They have thrown the ball in the system’s court, and the more the system reacts negatively, the more the international community will turn to the United States.” (State-run daily Setareh-e-Sobh, March 2)

Government spokesman Ali Rabiee, in response to a reporter’s question regarding the referral of the previous parliament’s decision to join the FATF, told the current parliament: “Referral to parliament is no longer an issue at all.” (IRNA, March 2)

A government expert acknowledged the shaky foundations of the regime and warned against a potential uprising: “We have not done anything to maintain our social capital by being able to withstand the pressures. With these shaky foundations, we cannot go to war with the international community, so we must accept the FATF.” (State-run daily Jahan-e-Sanat, March 3)

Contrary to this warning and the desire of some of the regime’s officials to join the FATF, some showed the truth behind the regime’s hesitation to join this agreement.

In 2019, clergyman Mesbahi Moghaddam made it clear that accepting these bills would mean cutting off support for the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC): “The funding of the IRGC is considered as terrorist financing by the US, so in those circumstances we must also stop supporting the IRGC.”

Ali Nikzad, a Member of Parliament and former Minister, wrote in the most explicit tweet: “If we accept the FATF, it means exposing ways to circumvent sanctions.” (State-run daily Hamshahri, March 3)

The bottlenecks of the regime are not just one or two. According to the Iran daily, March 4, if the sanctions are lifted, the regime will be in dire straits in its banking transactions not accepting the FATF:

“If all parties return to the JCPOA {2015 Iran nuclear deal}, if Iran does not accept the FATF, will not be able to work with the world banking system. Maybe even 2nd and 3rd tier European banks will not work with us. It seems that not only the top Chinese banks do not work with us today, but also the Chinese sub-banks are willing to cooperate with us at exorbitant costs.”

This is the impasse that the regime is facing. This is at a time when the regime is facing a major crisis at home over the anger of the people. A situation that is ready to explode with any spark.