Rising temperatures, drying rivers and lakes, and unprecedented drought have become the norm in Iran, leading to widespread dust storms that engulf vast areas of the country.
The escalating desertification process in Iran has reached a point where Iranian authorities warned last month that over one million hectares of land, roughly equivalent to the size of Qom Province or the country of Lebanon, will become uninhabitable annually.
This situation has put the Iranian government in trouble in controlling the situation in a country where 90 percent of its land is either dry or semi-dry, and conditions are heading towards a critical crisis and forced migrations.
Warning signs, especially in recent months, are soaring. In late July, the temperature in southwestern Iran reached a staggering 66.7 degrees Celsius, which is higher than the human tolerance level for survival.
Iranian scientists have warned that the water level of Lake Urmia, which is severely at risk of complete drying, has reached its lowest recorded level in the past 60 years. On the other hand, repeated warnings about the danger of suffocating dust storms that have become commonplace.
Like many parts of the world, Iran is facing the consequences of climate change. However, these changes are only part of the problem in a country that is also grappling with numerous other challenges.
The water crisis in Iran has brought the country into a critical phase due to mismanagement of local resources, rapid population growth, improper spatial distribution, and the consequences of long-term drought.
The water shortage and Tehran’s failure to address this problem have manifested themselves in various forms repeatedly. In response to this crisis, the Iranian regime has resorted to building large dams while simultaneously accelerating water-intensive irrigation projects, leading to the drying up of rivers and underground resources.
On the other hand, confrontations with neighboring countries and anti-government protests in affected areas of the water crisis have begun, and desertification, increased dust and sandstorms have made many Iranian cities among the most polluted cities in the world.
Simultaneously, the loss of agricultural lands has also damaged agricultural production and put people’s livelihoods at risk. Ultimately, this situation leads to a wave of internal migration from rural areas to urban areas, which in turn can bring a host of related problems.
Over time, these migration patterns can increase pressure on urban areas and put infrastructure and natural resources under strain, creating socio-economic challenges.
Mass migration
The population of Iran has increased from around 35 million people in the time of the 1979 revolution to 88 million today, with approximately 70 percent of this population residing in cities. Over the past two decades, Tehran has witnessed an average annual influx of 250,000 people.
However, due to water scarcity and the rapid expansion of deserts in the country, it is feared that a large portion of the population will soon have no choice but to completely flee the country.
Former Minister of Agriculture Isa Kalantari, who in 2015served as an advisor to the then-president in water and agricultural affairs, stated, “If we continue with the current situation, about 70 percent of Iranians, which is equivalent to 50 million people, will be forced to migrate from the country in order to survive.”
In the summer of 2021, simultaneous with protests in Khuzestan province, which began with public outcry over water shortages in the city of Ahvaz, then- Interior Minister, Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli, described the water situation as a “major social crisis” and warned that within the next five years, climate migration would change the face of Iran.
This deadline has now arrived, and grim predictions and failed policies in dealing with this crisis continue.
The Global Resources Institute has recently ranked Iran among countries with water stress in the world, where water scarcity can lead to conflicts.
This outlook became a reality earlier this year with cross-border clashes between Taliban forces and the Iranian regime. These clashes occurred after Tehran asked its neighboring country to release more water upstream to feed endangered wetlands in southeastern Iran.
Within the country, renewed anti-government protests due to drinking water shortages, similar to what happened in Khuzestan in the summer of 2021, have become a challenge for the religious fascism ruling Iran.
The United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification has always warned about land degradation in dry, semi-dry, and semi-humid areas. But these areas are not exclusive in Iran and they are also at risk.
Vahid Jafariyan, the Director-General of the Desert Affairs Office at the Department of Environment in Iran, estimates that the country loses one million hectares of its land annually due to desertification. He also warned that with the drying up of underground reservoirs and the continued development of water-intensive industries, even Iranian wetlands are at risk of becoming centers of dust storms.
Isa Kalantari also stated last year that the drying up of a lake that was once one of the largest lakes in the Middle East could lead to the displacement of four million people in the country.
The Iranian regime claims to have taken many measures to address this problem, however if any actions have been taken, they have all been overshadowed by the consequences of chronic mismanagement and widespread government corruption.
Forty years ago, Iran had 19 dams. Now, state media reports 172 dams. These are the dams that have largely caused water tensions in downstream areas and have themselves led to environmental problems.
As a result, any action taken to address this problem ultimately yields no results due to widespread corruption.
