The UK Treasury is investigating nine suspected violations of sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear program in 2024—infractions that have gained greater sensitivity amid tensions following the recent 12-day war with Israel.
According to The Telegraph, these cases represent only a small part of Iran’s regime’s extensive covert financial and political influence network in Britain—a network fostered by years of inattention from London’s policymakers to Tehran’s “hybrid warfare.”
In June 2009, the Iranian regime’s supreme leader called the UK the “most evil” foreign power, and the slogan “Death to Britain” was chanted during Friday prayers in Tehran—a symbol of the regime’s long-standing hostility toward the UK.
The Telegraph reports that Tehran has targeted British public opinion in an effort to undermine the UK’s support for human rights in Iran and retaliate against sanctions.
Press TV, the regime’s English-language broadcaster—despite having its UK license revoked in 2012 for airing forced confessions—continues to promote the regime’s official narrative online while painting a bleak picture of Britain’s economic hardship.
The appearance of Labour Party figures such as George Galloway, Chris Williamson, and Jeremy Corbyn on this network has been cited as a sign of Tehran’s influence.
From 2013 to 2014, Iranian cyber operatives ran a Facebook page called “Scottish Cartoon,” which promoted Scottish independence and accused then-Prime Minister David Cameron of suppressing Scots.
Support for Scottish separatism intensified ahead of the 2021 parliamentary elections and continued into this year. In early June, coinciding with Israel’s “Operation Dawn of the Lions,” a network of pro-independence accounts—responsible for 250,000 posts—suddenly went dark.
In addition to online operations, aligned NGOs are also active.
The Islamic Human Rights Commission, which organizes the annual Quds Day march, raised the Hezbollah flag until it was banned in 2019 and is now under scrutiny for supporting sabotage activities against Israeli targets.
The survival of these networks has been facilitated by the inflow of Iran’s “dark money” into the UK financial system. In 2016, as part of efforts to advance the nuclear deal, sanctions on Bank Melli and Bank Saderat—accused of financing Kataib Hezbollah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad—were lifted.
Rising concerns have finally prompted security responses.
In October 2024, MI5 Director General Ken McCallum announced that “top-level” attention had been given to threats from Iran and revealed that 20 potentially lethal plots against British citizens had been thwarted.
In March 2025, Security Minister Dan Jarvis warned that regime operatives who fail to register could face up to five years in prison.
Nevertheless, The Telegraph argues that these scattered measures are not enough to counter Iran’s “shadow war”; London must urgently impose stricter sanctions on Tehran’s financial networks and curtail its malign influence.
Amid an increasingly repressive security atmosphere in Iran, Asghar Jahangir, the spokesperson for Iran’s judiciary, announced that in several provinces, “individuals of European nationality” who, according to him, “were in some way collaborating with Israel,” had been arrested and that legal cases had been opened against them.
In a press conference on Monday, June 30, Jahangir did not specify the identity or number of European detainees but announced that special judicial branches had been ordered to be established throughout the country to handle the cases of individuals labeled as “traitors and mercenaries.”
Jahangir stated, “We will address the cases of mercenaries and traitors without leniency,” adding that directives issued by Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, the head of the judiciary, would ensure these cases are processed rapidly.
He added that the judiciary would address cases involving charges such as “crimes against national and regime security, espionage, treason, and betraying the country” in a “firm and expedited” manner. According to Ejei’s order, these cases would be handled in an “extraordinary” process.
Iran’s regime has long been accused by European officials and non-governmental organizations of engaging in “hostage diplomacy” by detaining dual nationals and foreign citizens in order to pursue its political objectives and extract concessions.
In recent days, following the implementation of a ceasefire after the 12-day war with Israel, the Iranian regime has intensified its security clampdown and increased the arrests of civil society and media activists in connection with the conflict.
Throughout this period, judiciary officials have repeatedly announced the creation of special branches within the judiciary to process these cases, stating that verdicts will be issued swiftly.
On June 27, the human rights website HRANA reported that since the early morning of June 13, coinciding with the start of Israeli airstrikes on Iran, Iranian regime security forces had arrested more than 1,596 individuals.
According to the report, the number of detained foreign nationals, ranging from Europeans to Afghans, had reached at least 98. These individuals were arrested on charges such as illegal entry and membership in intelligence networks.
Subsequently, human rights media outlets and state-run websites reported the arrest of dozens more individuals across various cities on political and security-related charges.
HRANA, citing the large number of arrests and the rapid issuance of provisional sentences, warned that the public threats issued by judiciary officials have raised serious concerns about the detainees’ right to a fair trial.
Amnesty International, in a report dated June 25, stated that Iranian regime officials’ calls for the swift trial and execution of detainees accused of “collaborating with Israel” demonstrate their use of the death penalty as a tool for exerting control and instilling fear among the public.
Nine days after the Israeli army’s airstrike on Evin Prison and the subsequent transfer of a group of political prisoners to the Greater Tehran Prison and Qarchak Varamin Prison, reports indicate that political detainees in Greater Tehran Prison are being held in extremely poor and unbearable conditions, deprived of even their most basic rights.
According to the PMOI’s network, conditions inside Evin Prison were in complete disarray. Fearing riots and the possibility of widespread unrest leading to the release of political prisoners, authorities began relocating inmates. The prison’s notorious chief, Hedayat Farzadi, was reportedly so overwhelmed that he lacked even a basic list of those being transferred. In a state of panic, he resorted to going from cell to cell, asking prisoners for their names to compile a hasty roster. Approximately 2,000 inmates were forcibly moved from Evin to the Greater Tehran Penitentiary, also known as Fashafouyeh. Among them were 180 political prisoners from Ward 4, who were loaded onto buses with nothing more than the clothes they were wearing.
A group of political prisoners transferred from Evin are currently held in various wards of the second section of Greater Tehran Prison and are being kept in facilities that lack even the minimum standards required for prisoners.
A source close to the families of these political prisoners stated that Iran’s regime is treating them like “prisoners of war” and described their place of detention as “the depths of hell.”
Zahra Rahimi, the wife of 80-year-old political prisoner Abolfazl Ghadyani, who has been transferred to Greater Tehran Prison, expressed concern about her husband’s health and the inhumane conditions in the prison. She said the drinking water is salty and the presence of various cockroaches and bedbugs has deprived prisoners of rest.
She also reported the poor housing conditions, noting that a few beds are crammed into a small space and more than 10 inmates are forced to sleep on the floor.
The regime must end its brutal repression
Meanwhile, a group of political prisoners issued a statement describing the circumstances of their transfer following the Israeli attack and declared: “The deplorable and inhumane conditions of the male and female prisoners transferred from Evin to Qarchak and Greater Tehran Prisons have not changed since the first day of the transfer.”
At the same time, political prisoners Golrokh Iraee, Reyhaneh Ansari, and Varisheh Moradi, who were transferred from Evin to Qarchak Varamin Prison following the Israeli attack, issued a joint statement declaring: “We do not consider our current suffering to be greater than what has been inflicted on the people of Iran.”
These three political prisoners emphasized: “Work to improve conditions for ‘us,’ regardless of our alleged crimes, and for ‘us’ who have been transferred to Qarchak and Greater Tehran Prisons, regardless of our gender. And know that those who were lost beneath the rubble of the attack, and those cast out by the cruel cycle of life, are more deserving than us.”
Additionally, a group of political prisoners transferred to Greater Tehran Prison have warned that if the dire sanitary conditions and lack of facilities persist, they will launch a sit-in and hunger strike.
In the seventy-fifth week of the “No to Executions Tuesdays” campaign, political prisoners in 47 prisons across Iran once again raised their voices against the escalating executions and systematic repression by going on hunger strike. In a statement, they warned about the wave of recent executions and arrests, referred to the execution of three Kurdish kolbars (border couriers), the denial of fair trials to detainees, and the transfer of prisoners from Evin Prison to Qarchak and Greater Tehran Prison. The full text of the statement follows:
The corrupt and repressive regime continues its arbitrary executions and systematic suppression in response to public uprisings and protests. Between June 22 and June 26 alone, at least 17 prisoners — including one woman — were executed. Since March 21, 2025 (the beginning of the Iranian new year), at least 424 people have been hanged. Last week alone, 18 prisoners were executed — a horrifying figure unprecedented in recent years.
The recent legislation passed by the Iranian regime’s Majlis (parliament) to intensify repression and increase executions — particularly targeting dissidents and political prisoners — alongside the growing pace of executions, points to an explosive society and a repressive, illegitimate regime that sacrifices its citizens’ “right to life” to preserve its own survival.
Last Wednesday, the Iranian regime executed three Kurdish kolbars — Azad Shojaei, Edris Ali, and Rasoul Ahmad Mohammad — on espionage charges in a non-transparent and unjust process.
In recent weeks, a widespread wave of arrests has taken place in various cities across Iran under false political and security pretenses, raising serious concerns about the fate of the detainees. There are fears that many of them may face heavy charges and be denied their right to a fair trial.
Under these circumstances, the lives of political prisoners sentenced to death are in greater danger than ever. We, the members of this campaign, along with the people of Iran, demand the abolition of the death penalty and the release of all political and ideological prisoners.
The “No to Executions Tuesdays” campaign calls on the international community, human rights organizations, and all awakened consciences to be the voice of prisoners sentenced to death. Let it not be forgotten that the tyrannical regime not only failed to protect prisoners during times of war and bombing, but now, after the crisis has passed, seeks revenge on the people and the prisoners. We also urge the families of the detainees—especially those whose loved ones have recently been arrested—not to remain silent. Publish their names and demand their unconditional release.
It is worth noting that, with the closure of Evin Prison and the transfer of its inmates to Greater Tehran and Qarchak prisons, Qarchak will now be listed as the substitute for Evin among the hunger-striking prisons in this campaign.
On Tuesday, July 1, political prisoners of the “No to Executions Tuesdays” campaign will continue their hunger strike across 47 prisons in the seventy-fifth week.
Iran’s national electricity distribution company has released a new schedule of rolling blackouts across various provinces, signaling the return of power outages following the 12-day war between Iran’s regime and Israel.
The schedule comes after a 12-day period of uninterrupted power supply during the attacks. Now, in an effort to compensate for a nationwide capacity shortage, the Ministry of Energy has reinstated its model of region-based and scheduled blackouts.
What makes this decision more significant are recent remarks by Mohammad Allahdad, Deputy for Transmission and Foreign Trade at Tavanir (Iran Power Generation, Transmission and Distribution Company). Explaining the impact of the war on the national grid, Allahdad stated that electricity consumption dropped sharply during the internet shutdown that occurred over this period.
According to him, at least 2,400 megawatts of load were shed from the national grid during the days of conflict. This drop was primarily due to the shutdown of more than 900,000 cryptocurrency mining machines across the country, which were forced offline because of their dependence on internet connectivity.
Allahdad emphasized that the 2,400-megawatt reduction accounts for roughly 15% of the country’s electricity shortfall—indicating that cryptocurrency mining contributes significantly to the pressure on Iran’s energy infrastructure.
The Hidden Shadow of Crypto Miners on the Power Grid
At the same time, domestic reports indicate that some crypto miners continued operations even during the internet shutdown by connecting to satellite networks such as Starlink.
A statistical comparison of electricity consumption during the internet blackout and after its restoration allows for the identification of regions with unusually high energy usage caused by mining machines. These data could provide a geographic map of mining concentration across the country.
Another strong indicator of Iran’s growing role in the global cryptocurrency mining market is the recent sudden drop of more than 5% in the global Bitcoin hash rate during Iran’s internet blackout. Some analysts interpret this decline as evidence of Iran’s significant share in global Bitcoin production.
Iran’s estimated 5% share in the Bitcoin network translates to roughly 500 megawatts of power consumption, while the country’s current electricity deficit is estimated at around 20,000 megawatts. This discrepancy, especially when compared to the sharp 2,400-megawatt drop in power usage during the internet blackout, raises numerous questions about the real sources of energy consumption in the country.
Some analysts believe that the reduction in electricity use may be less about the halt of crypto mining and more about behavioral changes during wartime, including evacuations, temporary relocations to safer areas, and reduced household consumption. However, the lack of transparency in official reporting on the actual figures for electricity production, consumption, and loss in the national grid has left room for speculation and doubt.
Under these circumstances, the role of cryptocurrency mining in the ongoing power crisis has once again become a contentious issue—especially since in February 2025, the Ministry of Energy stated that miners accounted for more than 20% of the country’s electricity consumption. If accurate, this figure would suggest a widespread, networked presence of mining operations across the nation.
This claim also strengthens suspicions that the government is unable—or unwilling—to shut down or control these operations, due to their deep ties with military and intelligence institutions such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Exposés on mining activity in places like dairy farms, factories, mosques, and even schools reveal that owners of these devices, confident in their legal immunity, have established a vast and protected nationwide network.
At the start of this year, Energy Minister Abbas Aliabadi acknowledged the rise in unauthorized mining and stated that such operations are secretly expanding.
Widespread Blackouts as Summer Peaks: Miners Profit, Citizens Suffer
Mohammad Allahdad, Deputy for Transmission and Foreign Trade at Tavanir, had earlier stated that cryptocurrency mining in Iran began in 2019. According to him, miners initially installed their machines openly in industrial facilities. However, following the authorities’ initial crackdown, violators began hiding the equipment among Iran’s 42 million household, commercial, and agricultural electricity users. Due to their small size, concealing these devices in various locations is easy and inexpensive.
Nonetheless, Allahdad admitted that over 50% of the active mining devices are still installed in industrial zones, which receive subsidized electricity intended for manufacturing and essential goods production.
Iran’s Meteorological Organization has warned that temperatures in Tehran will soon exceed 40°C, while many parts of the country are already approaching 50°C. In such conditions, power outages—especially given that residential water pumps rely on the national grid—will pose serious public health risks to citizens.
Many experts believe the persistence of this situation reflects the inability or unwillingness of responsible bodies to crack down on profiteers in the crypto mining sector. The vast and opaque network operating without licenses—and protected by quasi-governmental entities—feeds off subsidized electricity and constitutes a powerful shadow structure that benefits only a select few.
Concerns have escalated over the condition of political prisoners formerly held in Evin Prison after their transfer to Qarchak Varamin, Greater Tehran, and Ghezel Hesar prisons in Karaj. Reza Valizadeh, an Iranian-American journalist currently imprisoned, described the situation as “critical” in a phone call with his brother.
On Wednesday, June 18, the family of political prisoner Ali Younesi reported that he had been forcibly and abruptly transferred from Evin Prison to an undisclosed location. Younesi, born in March 2001, is a computer science student at Sharif University of Technology and the recipient of a gold medal at the 2018 International Olympiad on Astronomy and Astrophysics (IOAA) held in Beijing, China.
In March 2020, he was arrested along with Amir Hossein Moradi, another elite student at Sharif University. A Revolutionary Court sentenced both of them to 16 years in prison on charges of “destruction and arson of public property, assembly and collusion against national security, and propaganda against the regime.” Both are supporters of the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK).
There has also been no news about political prisoner Arghavan Fallahi following her transfer from Evin to Qarchak Varamin prison. Arghavan, a supporter of the PMOI/MEK, has been imprisoned since the 2022 protests.
Mohammadreza Valizadeh, quoting his brother Reza Valizadeh—an Iranian-American journalist who was arrested after returning to Iran in early March following 15 years abroad—has expressed concern about the mass transfer of prisoners without adherence to basic standards such as separation based on charges, proper living conditions, access to essential services, and the right to contact family members.
In his message, the journalist’s brother described the dire and deplorable conditions of political prisoners, including Reza himself, in Greater Tehran Prison. Quoting his brother, he said: “Prisoners were transferred under harsh conditions, shackled together with shared handcuffs and leg irons from Evin Prison to Greater Tehran Prison, and the living quarters they have been placed in—previously used for housing methadone-addicted inmates—are extremely unsanitary and contaminated.”
Two areas of Evin Prison were reportedly targeted by Israeli military strikes on Monday, June 23.
Following the release of initial reports on the deteriorating conditions of prisoners, it was announced that they would be transferred to Qarchak Varamin, Greater Tehran, and Ghezel Hesar prisons.
HRANA, the news agency affiliated with the Human Rights Activists in Iran, also reported on the poor conditions of these prisoners and wrote: “Following the mass transfer of male political prisoners from Evin Prison, more than 70 individuals have been moved to quarantine unit 3 of Ghezel Hesar Prison in Karaj. These individuals are facing a severe shortage of basic necessities and restrictions on contact with their families.”
HRANA also reported on the condition of female political prisoners: “Many of these women were suddenly and forcibly transferred to Qarchak Varamin Prison. At first, they were held in a small and unsanitary quarantine area and later moved to a gymnasium lacking any facilities, including beds. After some time, the prisoners were returned to the quarantine ward, where they now remain in conditions that do not observe the principle of separating prisoners based on charges, nor even minimal living standards.”
The sanitary conditions in Qarchak and Greater Tehran prisons have been reported as extremely poor. Relatives of one of the transferred female prisoners told HRANA: “In the gymnasium and quarantine ward of this prison, there are only two toilets and one shower for dozens of prisoners. The quarantine area is very small and unhygienic, and during the hot summer weather, using the outdoor yard is practically impossible.”
Food quality and access to clean water in Qarchak and Greater Tehran prisons have also been described as critical. Female prisoners in Qarchak Varamin and a large number of transferred prisoners in Greater Tehran Prison have also been deprived of access to medical services.
Tehran’s stock exchange opened with a sharp crash on the first day of trading following the 12-day war between Israel and Iran’s regime. More than 99% of listed stocks fell, triggering an unprecedented sell-off of 350 trillion rials (approximately $407 million).
By the end of trading on Saturday, June 28, the sell-off — or capital flight — in Iran’s stock market had exceeded 350 trillion rials (around $407 million).
The main index of the Tehran Stock Exchange dropped by 62,503 points — a 2.1% decline — closing at 2,922,101.
The equal-weight index also fell by 15,522 points, settling at 908,163.
Tehran’s stock market, long sensitive to political and security developments, appears to have entered a deeper phase of distrust and anxiety.
Iran’s stock market has repeatedly dropped in response to the regime’s foreign policy adventurism.
In past incidents such as the so-called “True Promise” military operations and the death of Ebrahim Raisi, the stock exchange organization reduced the daily trading limits to prevent major crashes.
In Iran’s stock market, the daily price limit restricts how much a stock can rise or fall in a single day. The standard limit is 5%.
99% of Market in the Red
The stock market reopened Saturday after a 9-day closure due to the war, and within the first 90 minutes, signs of severe crisis emerged as more than 99% of stocks traded in negative territory.
The main index fell nearly 1%, dropping to 2,957,000.
The equal-weight index dropped by 3,800 points and was on the verge of falling below the 920,000 mark.
During the first 90 minutes, total trades exceeded 20 trillion rials (about $23.25 million), with real investor outflows accounting for roughly 12 trillion rials (around $14 million).
The state-run newspaper EghtesadNews described the current state of the stock market as a “full-blown crisis” and wrote that Tehran’s exchange had endured one of its bitterest trading days.
The state-run daily EghtesadOnline also noted that the end of military clashes did not restore calm but instead deepened uncertainties, as market participants remained skeptical about the ceasefire and anticipated renewed conflict in their analysis.
The massive sell queues, absence of buyers, widespread cash outflows, and the overall red market are all signs that analysts describe as “the beginning of a psychological and structural crisis.”
Amid these developments, the Stock Exchange Organization’s market oversight director announced the activation of the Market Stabilization Fund, stating it has begun support purchases using available resources and that the process will continue.
He added that the activities of market makers and institutional investors are being closely monitored, though no structural changes are currently planned for the market.
Iranian regime officials emphasized cutting ties with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) during the funeral of key figures behind Iran’s nuclear program and military commanders killed in Israeli attacks.
Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, the regime’s judiciary chief, said during the ceremony on Saturday, June 28: “Naturally, cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency must be suspended.”
He accused the agency of “collaborating with the enemy” and added that Iran’s regime cannot continue its relationship with the IAEA “as before” under the current circumstances.
Hamid-Reza Haji Babaee, deputy speaker of the regime’s Majlis (Parliament), also criticized Rafael Grossi, the IAEA Director General, over his stance on Iran’s nuclear file, stating: “We will no longer allow Grossi’s presence or the installation of agency cameras at nuclear facilities.”
He implicitly accused the agency of spying for Israel and added: “We saw our facility data in documents obtained from Israel.”
Following U.S. strikes on Iran’s regime nuclear facilities in Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, Iranian officials have intensified their rhetoric against the IAEA and Grossi personally.
On June 24, the IAEA Director General sent a letter to Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s regime foreign minister, requesting access to inspect the regime’s nuclear facilities.
U.S. President Donald Trump also stressed on June 27 that either the IAEA or the United States must be granted access to inspect Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Ali Nikzad, another deputy speaker of the regime’s Majlis, called Grossi a “liar” at the funeral and threatened: “He will certainly pay for what he has done.”
Ebrahim Azizi, head of the regime Majlis’s National Security Committee, stated: “Majlis has approved that until the security of nuclear centers is ensured and the right to enrichment is recognized, the government will refrain from cooperating with the IAEA.”
Mojtaba Zonnour, a member of the regime Majlis’s National Security Committee, also attacked the agency at the ceremony, saying that Grossi had “betrayed us and the NPT.”
MP Hamid Rasaee also declared that the agency’s director general and inspectors would no longer be allowed into Iran.
Saeed Jalili, a member of the Expediency Council, echoed the same stance, asserting: “The suspension of cooperation with the agency was necessary.”
In recent days, speculation has grown over the fate of Iran’s regime’s enriched uranium stockpiles following the U.S. attacks.
Olli Heinonen, former deputy director general of the IAEA, warned in an interview that unless the agency verifies the storage location of these materials, the threat will remain serious.
Iran’s regime possesses around 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%, and it remains unclear where it is stored. If further enriched to 90%, this amount would be sufficient to produce 10 nuclear bombs.
Eleven days have passed with no information about Ali Younesi, the imprisoned elite student who was abducted from Evin Prison, or about other detainees.
Amid the ongoing wave of repression in Iran’s prisons, Aida Younesi, sister of Ali Younesi — the imprisoned elite and top student from Sharif University — reported that there has been absolutely no news from her brother for eleven days.
Eleven days ago, Ali Younesi was abducted from the kitchen of Ward 4 in Evin Prison by intelligence agents, and since then, no information has been available about his condition or whereabouts.
According to Aida Younesi, intelligence agents told some of Ali’s cellmates that he had been temporarily transferred for “interrogation” and would return soon. However, nearly two weeks have passed with no news, and his family remains in complete distress.
She emphasized:
“This complete silence is unbearable. Where is Ali?”
At the same time as Ali Younesi’s abduction, many political prisoners — including Aida Younesi’s father — were transferred to the Greater Tehran Prison. According to families and human rights sources, conditions there are even worse than in Evin: shortages of water, food, and medicine, lack of phone access, and forced transfers without personal belongings.
Aida Younesi described this situation as a continuation of the Iranian regime’s crimes, stating that even after external attacks, the regime has intensified its internal war against the people and its opponents.
The “WhereIsOurPrisoner” campaign, now widely followed on social media, has become a symbol of protest by the families of prisoners who — amid repression and censorship — are forced to endure the disappearance of their loved ones with no answers.
Arghavan Fallahi, a political prisoner and supporter of the
While other female political prisoners held in Evin Prison were transferred to Qarchak Prison following the explosion and attack on June 23, no information has yet been released about Arghavan Fallahi, a political prisoner and supporter of the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK). Concerns over her well-being have increased.
Arghavan, her brother Ardavan, and their father Nasrollah Fallahi were arrested in November 2022 and faced severe charges of “moharebeh” (waging war against God) and “corruption on earth” through their support for the PMOI/MEK.
Iman Afshari, the head of Branch 26 of the Revolutionary Court, sentenced them and another co-defendant to eleven years in prison.
Amid rising demand in China, Iran’s oil exports to the country hit a new record in June. According to a Reuters report, orders for oil shipments—particularly from China’s independent refineries—saw a significant increase.
According to data from the maritime tracking firm Vortexa, from June 1 to June 20, 2025, China imported more than 1.8 million barrels of Iranian crude oil per day on average.
Data analytics company Kpler also reported that Iranian crude oil and condensate exports to China reached 1.46 million barrels per day as of June 27, a sharp increase from approximately one million barrels per day in May.
On June 25, U.S. President Donald Trump, speaking at the close of the NATO summit in The Hague, Netherlands, stated that the United States does not intend to seize Iran’s oil resources. He added that while maximum pressure on the regime will continue, he does not aim to halt Iran’s oil exports.
Impact of Delivery Delays and Political Signals
The surge in China’s imports of Iranian oil in June largely reflects the export spike from Iran during May.
In May, Iran’s oil loadings reached the rare level of 1.83 million barrels per day.
Given that it typically takes several weeks for Iranian oil to reach China, the bulk of those shipments were delivered in June.
Most of Iran’s oil is purchased by small refineries in northeastern China known as “teapots.”
These refineries rely on cheap oil for profitability and sell their products domestically in local currency, shielding them from secondary sanctions.
Kpler had previously reported that as U.S. pressure intensified, China refrained from placing new orders for Iranian crude oil, and even small private refineries stopped making new purchases.
Some analysts believe the rise in Iran’s oil exports to China may reflect market expectations of potential easing of U.S. sanctions by the Trump administration.
Nevertheless, all official U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil remain in place, and no formal changes have been announced.
Energy analysts say the real market impact of these statements may be limited, as Iran’s oil production and export capacity continues to face structural constraints.
High Exports, Limited Growth: Warning in Confidential Oil Ministry Report
Despite the recent export surge, serious doubts remain about Iran’s ability to sustain high levels of oil exports.
According to a confidential report from Iran’s Oil Ministry, even if sanctions are completely lifted, Iran’s daily export capacity will remain severely limited.
The report, citing Kpler data, states that in the first half of 2025, Iran exported an average of 1.4 million barrels per day of crude and condensate to China—12% less than the same period last year.
According to the report, aging oil fields, rising domestic consumption, and lack of investment are among the main obstacles to expanding Iran’s export capacity.
Meanwhile, Iran’s floating oil storage—unsold shipments held on tankers at sea—has reached around 40 million barrels, signaling the regime’s difficulty in offloading its stockpiles.
