According to the official report from the Iranian regime’s Statistical Center, the inflation rate has only decreased by one percent since the start of the Persian calendar year (March 21), despite the fact that the regime’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, named it the year of “Containing Inflation, Promoting Production.”
The latest report from the regime’s Statistical Center, which is the government’s official report on the inflation situation in the country, has reported an average inflation rate of 45.5 percent. This is in contrast to the officially announced inflation rate of 46.5 percent in February and March 2022.
Comparing the changes in the inflation rate since the formation of the government under Ebrahim Raisi also shows that despite his promises to reduce the inflation rate, he has not achieved any success in this regard.
High inflation in Iran has been a primary economic issue for over three decades and a source of concern for the people. Despite the numerous promises made by the regime’s officials to reduce the inflation rate, persistent budget deficits and reckless money printing have slowed down the growth and development of Iran’s economy, resulting in “sticky inflation.”
Sticky inflation is an economic hypothesis that suggests that even if prices decrease, there are often conditions and assumptions that reinforce the motivation to keep prices high. In fact, when sticky inflation exists, the standard of living declines more rapidly, and even changes in monetary policies can have negative effects on the standard of living of the people.
Despite the promises of regime officials to reduce the inflation rate, an analysis of the inflation rate changes from 2019 onwards shows that this influential variable on Iran’s economy has not decreased by more than 40 percent.
During the presidential election campaign two years ago, Raisi stated that if elected, he would cut the inflation rate in half, and then it would move towards becoming a single-digit figure. However, after two years of his presidency, not only has this promise not been fulfilled, but there is still no sign of a downward trend in inflation.
Ecoiran website reported before the release of October inflation data by the Statistical Center that the inflation rate in Iran had reached 54.3 percent.
The regime’s Central Bank immediately denied this, but based on a table published by Ecoiran, the price index based on the 2016 base year has crossed the threshold of one thousand.
Meanwhile, the discrepancy between the two official economic statistics sources, the Statistical Center and the Central Bank, has always perplexed economic analysts.
Although the announced statistics from these two official sources are close to each other, they have always been different from each other to the extent that it was decided in the Fifth Development Plan Law to assign the official statistics authority to the Statistical Center.
However, the discrepancy between these two sources is unresolved. The latest case is related to economic growth statistics, where these two official government sources have provided different statistics.
The Central Bank claimed a 4 percent growth with oil and a 3.5 percent growth without oil in 2022, while the Statistical Center claimed a 4.8 percent growth with oil and a 4.5 percent growth without oil.
The latest report from the Statistical Center of Iran reveals the high inflation rates for various food items in the country. According to the statistics, the price of lamb meat has seen the highest increase, with a rise of 149.2 percent, while solid vegetable oil has experienced the lowest price growth, with a decrease of 6.2 percent over the past year.
A comparison of food prices between October of last year and October of this year also indicates that the point-to-point inflation rate for fresh food items in October this year was 50.1 percent, while other food items saw a growth of 20.8 percent.
The increase in inflation rates for food items has significantly burdened lower-income households. Reports suggest that these conditions are now affecting middle-class households as well, with relative increases in service-related inflation and relative decreases in food-related inflation.
Morteza Afghah, an economics professor at Chamran University, expressed his concern about the severe impact of inflation on different social classes in Iran. He mentioned that the middle class is struggling to afford basic necessities such as food and housing, let alone cultural and recreational activities. He also highlighted that the poorer segments of society are facing even more severe poverty.
The Statistical Center’s report on inflation rates in Iran indicates that the inflation rate remains above 50 percent in nine provinces, including Yazd, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, Kurdistan, Lorestan, Isfahan, East Azerbaijan, Kermanshah, North Khorasan, and Hamadan.
The latest international ranking of countries with the highest inflation rates places Iran in the seventh position among countries experiencing high inflation.
An examination of official statistics, including reports from the Statistical Center of Iran, reveals that the “misery index” has shown an upward trend in many provinces of Iran, reaching nearly 70 percent in Lorestan.
The misery index is derived from combining the unemployment rate with the inflation rate, and the Statistical Center’s report indicates that this index has grown by approximately 1.7 percent in the first three months of this year compared to the previous year’s spring.
According to the report, the national level of the misery index in the spring of this year was 60.4 percent, representing an increase of at least 1.2 units compared to winter 2022.
It should be noted that all these statistics are figures provided by government entities and may not reflect the complete reality. The Iranian regime has long avoided providing accurate statistics and attempts to conceal the extent of societal misery.
Jabar Kuchakinezhad, a member of regime’s Majlis (parliament), mentioned to the semi-official ILNA news agency that “the Central Bank is also under government control, and there is a possibility of manipulation in reporting the inflation rate by the Central Bank and other government-affiliated institutions.”
