The International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) new report on Iran’s nuclear activities has created a major challenge for the Iranian regime, with many of its media outlets and officials expressing their fear and concern over the consequences of this report. The Agency had expected that Iran would respond to its questions about the hidden and suspect projects, especially the presence of uranium particles in four previously undeclared sites
However, it appears that the regime has either failed to respond to the questions, or its answers were not satisfying. The regime’s stonewalling has prompted the EU three and the U.S. to draft a resolution to be tabled at the IAES BoG’s meeting that begins on June 6.
And because only a majority is needed to adopt the resolution, Tehran’s traditional allies, Russia, and China cannot veto the measure. Some of the regime’s experts have said that this time, a new resolution will not have any impact on the Iranian economy, because it’s risk factor has reached seven.
In its latest Global Risks Report, the World Economic Forum added the following items in its assessment of risk factors: 1: Employment and livelihood crises
2: Widespread youth disillusionment
3: Prolonged economic stagnation
4: Natural resource crises
5: Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse
These latest additions show that Iran’s economy has been facing a downfall for a long while.
The draft resolution has created a nightmare for the regime as it calls on the clerical regime to cooperate fully with the IAEA and respond to their questions immediately.
In recent months, the Vienna talks to revive the JCPOA nuclear deal came to a standstill with the announcement by US President Joe Biden that the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) will be kept on the US’s Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTO) list.
Before this announcement, news about a new nuclear deal had been broadcast by the regime’s media, which along with the pro-appeasement policy had promised that an agreement would be signed within a few weeks, a few days, or even a few hours. It was later revealed that there were many disputes between the negotiating parties that could not be resolved so easily.
Iran’s regime has unilaterally demanded the lifting of all sanctions and the need for it to verify that they have indeed been lifted. Tehran also demanded a guarantee for the return of oil proceeds and that no US future administrations would ever leave the JCPOA.
The US rejected in a previous commentary in the Kayhan daily, the mouthpiece of the regime’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei, and its chief editor Hossein Shariatmadari, acknowledged the stalemate in the Vienna talks, making it clear that the regime knows that sanctions will not be lifted without making certain concessions.
Following a long period of useless negotiations, the IAEA is now sounding the alarms. This is because the regime has not given a credible and technical response to the Agency’s specific questions about radioactive material of human origin being found on some of its suspect sites.
This is not the Agency’s only concern. At present, the amount of the regime’s uranium stockpile has reached 18 times more than allowed in the JCPOA.
On June 1, the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) wrote, “Iran has crossed a new, dangerous threshold; Iran’s breakout timeline is now at zero. It has enough 60 percent enriched uranium or highly enriched uranium (HEU) to be assured it could fashion a nuclear explosive. If Iran wanted to further enrich its 60 percent HEU up to weapons-grade HEU, or 90 percent, it could do so within a few weeks with only a few of its advanced centrifuge cascades.”
It added, “In parallel, within a month, it could produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a second nuclear explosive from its existing stock of near 20 percent low enriched uranium. Whether or not Iran enriches its HEU up to 90 percent, it can have enough HEU for two nuclear weapons within one month after starting the breakout.”
ISIS further explained, “Within 1.5 months after starting breakout, it could accumulate enough for a third nuclear weapon, using its remaining near 20 percent enriched uranium and some of its 4.5 percent enriched uranium. In 2.75 months after starting breakout, it could have a fourth quantity by further enriching 4.5 percent enriched uranium up to 90 percent. At six months, it could have produced the fifth quantity by further enriching both 4.5 percent enriched uranium and natural uranium. The accumulation for a sixth would take several months longer.”
It can be said that the regime has faced three consecutive defeats in a short period:
- The announcement that it’s the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) will remain on the US FTO list.
- The stalemate in the JCPOA negotiations
- Drafting of a resolution condemning the regime by the United States and three European countries at a meeting of the IAEA Board of Governors
So far, several factors have hampered the policy of appeasement and concessions to the regime’s nuclear program:
- The expansion of the protests in Iran has left its mark on political and international equations and has made appeasement useless and costly.
- Revelations and actions of the Iranian Resistance to keep the Revolutionary Guards on the FTO list.
- The opposition of the public opinion and bipartisan lawmakers and political figures to the US returning to the JCPOA and lifting the sanctions
- Formation of a new regional front against the regime’s terrorist and nuclear policies.