Iran regime’s nuclear talk at a ‘sharp and dangerous turn’
With the nuclear talks reaching their final hours, and the Iranian regime remaining steadfast in promoting positive progress, Iran’s state media are now expressing scepticism and despair. They have stated that the negotiations, at its ‘final turn’, have reached a ‘dangerous, sharp and bumpy turn.’ A turn that has increased the possibility of the regime’s demise.
The media outlets are now speaking about the failure of the Vienna talks. In an interview with the state-run daily Jahan-e Sanat on March 3, Ali Bigdeli, one of the regime’s international affairs experts, said: “The status of the talks has changed slightly since Tuesday afternoon. The reason for this change may be partly due to our comments and positions on Russia. In other words, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine greatly affected the negotiating environment, which is why Mr. Ulyanov has left the negotiating path. On the other hand, the Westerners have said because of the positions and statements of our senior officials in support of Russia that they may leave the negotiating table by the end of the week if the talks do not reach the desired result.”
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has also called for inspections of undisclosed sites with their own inspectors. If the agency does not report positively on the inspections, the negotiation process will be greatly affected.
The result of this critical situation has put the Iranian regime in a strange position. This coupled with the prospects of European and American sides withdrawing from the negotiation process, we will get a clearer picture of the regime’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei’s weakness.
Bigdeli has also admitted that the regime’s efforts to lift all sanctions have completely failed. He said, “The Americans have separated the four areas of the (nuclear) sanctions, human rights, missiles, and regional issues, and are now ready to lift the sanctions (related to the JCPOA), but in three other areas, they suggest that negotiations continue after the JCPOA. But Iran does not want to accept this. Given that by no means it is possible that the Americans close their eyes on none JCPOA sanctions, the situation has become increasingly difficult in many ways.”
The state-run daily, Javan, affiliated with the regime’s Revolutionary Guards, also expressed the same frustration. It wrote, “Evidence shows that the US-based mafia has not responded positively to any of Iran’s legal demands and continues to beat the drum with its arrogant and mafia-style bullying and refuses to be flexible and give Iran the slightest concessions.”
The dailywarned of the regime’s ‘sheer loss’ and ‘chain JCPOAs until the complete erosion of (the regime’s) power’, noting that that it would have to address the missile, regional, and human rights issues In the next phase of negotiations.
As such, it can be said that with the start of the current war in Ukraine, the regime mistakenly thought it could play an offensive role in the nuclear talks by supporting Russia and changing the situation in its own favor. However, now it is worried that Russia will use the regime as its card in the negotiations to strike a balance with the West.
As it stands right now, the regime is on a deadly path. Either it chooses to accept the current situation and makes ‘tough decisions’ under the threat of its western counterparts leaving the negotiations, or it will leave the talks itself and accepts the danger awaiting them.
The last scenario, as Bigdeli said, is equivalent to the regime’s confrontation with the IAEA, which would likely lead to the IAEA’s Board of Governors urging the adoption of a resolution by the UN Security Council, as well as the return of all six previous sanction resolutions.
If the regime does not comply with the demands of its western interlocutors will be crushed under the weight of increasing social crises and protests, and the hammer of international political and economic pressures. The accelerating developments will not just stop here, and the situation will change from bad to worse. It is apparent that the newly created parameters show us that time is against the regime.
Tehran Eyes Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine, Seeking Nuclear Advantage
Since dawn on Thursday, February 24, 2022, the world has focused on Russia’s war of occupation in Ukraine. In such circumstances, Tehran is trying to exploit the situation, especially when it comes to nuclear talks in Vienna.
Seventy-seven years after the end of World War II, a new era has begun, and the theocracy in Iran is trying in vain to adjust to evolving realities. This is while the helpless people of Ukraine, mainly civilians, have been essentially abandoned by the rest of the world. Western governments have limited their actions to several sanctions, refusing to provide practical and meaningful support.
The ayatollahs believe that an easy victory for Russia would strengthen their position in negotiations about revitalizing the 2015 nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). High-ranking officials of the regime have expressed their support for Russia’s attack.
In contrast, the Iranian people, and their organized Resistance in the coalition of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) has strongly condemned the war of occupation in Ukraine. “Attack on Ukraine and the war of occupation is condemned,” the NCRI stated on February 25.
Iranian Officials Support Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian laid blame on the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) for the attack, hoping to secure broader support by Russia during the nuclear negotiations in Vienna.
“The Ukraine crisis is rooted in NATO’s provocations,” Abdollahian tweeted on February 24. Although Abdollahian ridiculously paid lip service to “a political solution,” he is well-known as a protégé of the former chief warmonger of the regime and commander of the Quds Force—the extraterritorial arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)—Qassem Soleimani.
“NATO’s expansion to the east is provocative,” said Iranian regime President Ebrahim Raisi, who is infamous for his involvement in the mass killing of thousands of political prisoners in Tehran’s prisons in the summer of 1988.
In a desperate, pathetic, and revolting political act, Raisi stands alongside the Russian President even though Vladimir Putin deeply humiliated him during his trip to Moscow last January. At the time, a seminary instructor, Rahmatollah Bigdeli, joined many other regime officials and media outlets to criticize Raisi for his embarrassing trip to Russia. Bigdeli tweeted on January 20:
“The achievements of Raisi’s trip to Russia:
However, the Raisi government’s support for Russia’s invasion prompted criticism inside Iran, even among some of the regime’s own officials. For instance, former Parliament [Majlis] Deputy Speaker Ali Motahari described the regime as a Russian colony, calling on authorities to condemn the attack.
“Iran should condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to show its independence. Currently, the [state-run broadcaster] reports as if Iran is one of Russia’s colonies,” he tweeted.
Furthermore, several officials declared their concerns about the invasion’s consequences on nuclear negotiations. “While the war in Ukraine continues with intensity, it will overshadow negotiations in Vienna. Therefore, the only loser country would be Iran,” said Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, the former chair of the Parliament [Majlis] Security and Foreign Policy, on February 25.
“At least, learn from the Taliban,” said Etemad daily, affiliated with the ‘reformists’ faction on February 26. It mocked Raisi and his foreign minister by saying: “How can Amir-Abdollahian not know that a country cannot attack another sovereign country by artilleries and tanks even if NATO provoked it. Most importantly, doesn’t he know that such empathetic remarks for Russia can negatively impact Iran’s position in nuclear negotiations?”
“Worse, who has told Raisi to call Putin? OK, call the president that is under attack at least. If the latter call was unnecessary, you should not say that ‘I hope this invasion ends for the benefit of regional nations.’ Which war or invasion has ended in favor of nations?” the daily added.
“Putin, the hero of Ukraine quagmire,” was the headline in Arman Meli, another ‘reformist’ paper, on the same day. “It’s tragic that Iran thinks it has to support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—directly or indirectly—due to its anti-Western policies, and justifies it as a ‘special operation,’ providing logistic for Russia.”
“In such circumstances, Iran’s national security is at serious risk, and the events of September 1949 may repeat in other forms. Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine is by no means justified under international law,” wrote Ali Khorram, the former ambassador to the UN in Vienna.
In a nutshell, the theocratic regime in Iran hoped to gain further concessions internationally following the Ukraine crisis. But its attempts failed.
The courageous resistance of the Ukrainian people and their elected leaders has shown that autocrats and aggressive states only understand the language of power and firmness.
Authoritarian regimes see the appeasement policy as a rolled-out red carpet for new atrocities and breaching of long-standing international norms. As the Ukrainian people’s resistance prompted solidarity and sympathy across the globe, the people of Iran also expect Western leaders to recognize their struggle for freedom and democracy against the world’s foremost state-sponsor of terrorism.
“Democracy #demo4democracy There is no democracy without democrats. Get involved and use the freedoms that democracy offers you to express your support and solidarity. Start ‘democracy,’ a demonstration for democracy, against war, for a peaceful and free future of our continent,” tweeted Vitali Klitschko, the mayor of Kyiv and a former professional boxer, on February 25.
https://twitter.com/Klitschko/status/1497255100338913286?s=20&t=orZ4tDTPKXXlUF-gM-sYOw
Similarly, there are many democrats and freedom-loving individuals around the globe that are standing with the Iranian people in their struggle to overthrow the tyrannical regime in Tehran.
“NATO’s expansion to the east is provocative,” said Iranian regime President Ebrahim Raisi, who is infamous for his involvement in the mass killing of thousands of political prisoners in Tehran’s prisons in the summer of 1988.
In a desperate, pathetic, and revolting political act, Raisi stands alongside the Russian President even though Vladimir Putin deeply humiliated him during his trip to Moscow last January. At the time, a seminary instructor, Rahmatollah Bigdeli, joined many other regime officials and media outlets to criticize Raisi for his embarrassing trip to Russia. Bigdeli tweeted on January 20:
“The achievements of Raisi’s trip to Russia:
- Visiting Putin from a few meters away!
- Appreciating Putin for Iran’s membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
- Putin notes: Iran is only an observer member in Shanghai Cooperation Organization, not an actual member!
- Praying at the Kremlin!
- Lecture in the Duma
- Honorary Ph.D.
- Denial of contract!”
However, the Raisi government’s support for Russia’s invasion prompted criticism inside Iran, even among some of the regime’s own officials. For instance, former Parliament [Majlis] Deputy Speaker Ali Motahari described the regime as a Russian colony, calling on authorities to condemn the attack.
“Iran should condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to show its independence. Currently, the [state-run broadcaster] reports as if Iran is one of Russia’s colonies,” he tweeted.
Furthermore, several officials declared their concerns about the invasion’s consequences on nuclear negotiations. “While the war in Ukraine continues with intensity, it will overshadow negotiations in Vienna. Therefore, the only loser country would be Iran,” said Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, the former chair of the Parliament [Majlis] Security and Foreign Policy, on February 25.
“At least, learn from the Taliban,” said Etemad daily, affiliated with the ‘reformists’ faction on February 26. It mocked Raisi and his foreign minister by saying: “How can Amir-Abdollahian not know that a country cannot attack another sovereign country by artilleries and tanks even if NATO provoked it. Most importantly, doesn’t he know that such empathetic remarks for Russia can negatively impact Iran’s position in nuclear negotiations?”
“Worse, who has told Raisi to call Putin? OK, call the president that is under attack at least. If the latter call was unnecessary, you should not say that ‘I hope this invasion ends for the benefit of regional nations.’ Which war or invasion has ended in favor of nations?” the daily added.
“Putin, the hero of Ukraine quagmire,” was the headline in Arman Meli, another ‘reformist’ paper, on the same day. “It’s tragic that Iran thinks it has to support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—directly or indirectly—due to its anti-Western policies, and justifies it as a ‘special operation,’ providing logistic for Russia.”
“In such circumstances, Iran’s national security is at serious risk, and the events of September 1949 may repeat in other forms. Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine is by no means justified under international law,” wrote Ali Khorram, the former ambassador to the UN in Vienna.
In a nutshell, the theocratic regime in Iran hoped to gain further concessions internationally following the Ukraine crisis. But its attempts failed.
The courageous resistance of the Ukrainian people and their elected leaders has shown that autocrats and aggressive states only understand the language of power and firmness.
Authoritarian regimes see the appeasement policy as a rolled-out red carpet for new atrocities and breaching of long-standing international norms. As the Ukrainian people’s resistance prompted solidarity and sympathy across the globe, the people of Iran also expect Western leaders to recognize their struggle for freedom and democracy against the world’s foremost state-sponsor of terrorism.
“Democracy #demo4democracy There is no democracy without democrats. Get involved and use the freedoms that democracy offers you to express your support and solidarity. Start ‘democracy,’ a demonstration for democracy, against war, for a peaceful and free future of our continent,” tweeted Vitali Klitschko, the mayor of Kyiv and a former professional boxer, on February 25.
https://twitter.com/Klitschko/status/1497255100338913286?s=20&t=orZ4tDTPKXXlUF-gM-sYOw
Similarly, there are many democrats and freedom-loving individuals around the globe that are standing with the Iranian people in their struggle to overthrow the tyrannical regime in Tehran. Iran Regime’s Experts Are Concerned About the Impact of Ukraine Crisis on the Nuclear Talks
In the hours since Ukraine’s invasion by the Russians, the Iran regime’s officials and its media have expressed concern that the crisis could affect the nuclear talks to the regime’s detriment.
For example, the state-run Diplomacy Irani website, in an article titled ‘The revival of the JCPOA was sold to the Ukrainian war’, expressed the Iranian government’s concern about the Ukraine crisis and its impact on the Vienna nuclear talks.
The website, which is affiliated with the regime’s so-called reformist faction, has expressed concern while attacking the regime’s so-called principlist faction with phrases such as ‘The performance of Raisi’s government in Ukraine war is the most uncharacteristic performance of Iranian diplomacy.’
Leaving aside the economic and political aspects of this issue, and if one considers the nuclear talks in Vienna to be the second most sensitive international issue in the world after the Ukrainian crisis, one can say that it will certainly impact the Vienna talks.
In the more than 11 months that have passed from the Vienna nuclear talks in the form of eight rounds of talks, many political analysts and observers believe that the Russian representative in the talks has become the unofficial speaker of the Iranian government and is taking public positions in favor of the regime.
Russia has also shown in practice that it plays on the Iranian regime’s ground about the nuclear case and related negotiations rather than at the ground of the regime’s counterparts, which is making the situation more critical by giving the regime more time to get closer to the nuclear bomb.
Now, after Russia launched a military offensive against Ukraine, and after Russia’s further isolation in the international arena, its role in the Vienna nuclear talks will certainly be greatly diminished.
One could perhaps argue that the regime in Iran is the biggest loser of the conflict in Ukraine because one of its main supporters, i. e., Russia has not been isolated on the world stage.
The Iranian regime believes that because the United States and the Western countries are at a disadvantage in the face of the new global crisis, will have to make more concessions to the Iranian regime over its nuclear program.
But the US State Department spokesman Ned Price said that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine should not give Iran the green light to develop nuclear weapons.
In his article in Diplomacy Irani, Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, the ex-chairman of the Parliament’s National Security Committee, wrote that Raisi’s government officials believe that the United States and Europe will eventually reach an agreement with the Iranian regime and offer more concessions
because they do not want to witness more international conflicts. In their thinking, the U.S. and Europe cannot fully focus on the Ukrainian crisis unless and until they resolve the nuclear crisis with Iran.
The reality on the ground, however, shows otherwise. In other words, raising these expectations will, ironically, cause Europe and the United States to react negatively to the regime’s maximalist position. The regime’s media outlets and officials are increasingly concerned about the impact of the Ukrainian crisis on the nuclear talks.
On February 27, 2022, the state-run daily Jomhouri Eslami warned the regime and recalled Russia’s actions against the regime. It wrote, “The Russians voted for UN Security Council resolutions against Iran under Mr. Putin. Even now, the Russians want to oversee the JCPOA talks, as if they had always blocked Iranian gas from reaching Europe, and in Syria, they have adjusted the equation in their own favor. They have benefited the most from the tensions between the regime and the West, and they plan to turn it into a winning card for further speculation in the Iranian nuclear issue by invading Ukraine.”
Expressing the same concern, Parliament Speaker Mohamad Bagher Ghalibaf said the same day, “The question is no longer whether we should stay in the negotiations or not. We should stay in the negotiations and move it forward. In the negotiations, some of our demands have been met, but there are still unresolved issues. Negotiations have not been finalized yet, and the outcome of the negotiations must go through the stages of approval in the structures of the system.”
Following a meeting of the regime’s Supreme National Security Council, state media reported that Ali Bagheri, the head of the regime’s nuclear-negotiating team, was returning on February 27, 2022, to Vienna to resolve the remaining issues that posed significant challenges to reaching an agreement.
Iran’s Regime Intends To Increase the Price of Medicine Under Bogus Excuses
The Iranian regime is increasing the price of medicine again. Energy products are perhaps the most obvious examples of goods whose price the Iranian regime has increased or eliminated government subsidies for in recent years under the pretext of they are cheaper in Iran and are being smuggled to neighboring countries.
Regime officials and media are speaking about low prices in such a way that, anyone unaware that more than 70 percent of the population are living below the poverty line would believe that the people are living in prosperity and enjoying government assistance.
The regime’s comparison of medicine costs in Iran with the neighboring countries loses muster when one compares the income levels of people in Iran and the neighboring countries.
With the elimination of subsidies and preferential currency from some basic goods and medicine in recent years, a small amount of currency is now allocated to the import of basic goods and medicine.
Since the time of Hassan Rouhani’s government, the amount of goods and medicines that are subject to the preferred currency has been gradually reduced, and Iranian citizens are forced to buy them at free market prices, which are considerably higher.
When Ebrahim Raisi took power, his government took the initiative to remove the 42000 rial exchange rate to purchase basic goods and medicine. This was met with opposition within the regime’s parliament, and especially in the Joint Commission.
Some deputies opposed the elimination of the preferred currency, not out of sympathy for the people, but out of fear of the security and social consequences of removing it when basic goods and medicine are imported.
However, these objections did not prevent the spike in the prices of basic goods and some medicines. In a recent interview with state media, Bahram Daraei, head of the Food and Drug Administration, stated that there was only $2 million in the preferred currency available for medicine, adding that it is clear that the price of medicine is going up by four to five times.
He also added that if the currency is not allocated promptly to basic goods and medicine, the situation of medicine in 2022-2023 will be much worse than in 2021.
The state-run website ‘Ensaf News’ announced on January 21, 2022, that there are medicines in the market that have witnessed a price increase of 250 percent, and the price of medicines has increased significantly since the past 3 to 4 months.
In an interview with the same outlet, a pharmacist stated that the changes in the price of medicine have been very evident since a few weeks ago, and it is clear that the 42,000 rials preferred currency rate has been quietly removed from medicine.
Although many officials are warning about the adverse impact of eliminating the preferred currency rate and the increase of medicine prices, others continue to speak about medicine being cheap in Iran.
In one of the latest examples, Noushin Mohammad Hosseini, director-general of the Food and Drug Administration’s Office for Supervision and Monitoring of Consumption of Health Products, announced on February 26, 2022, that the price of medicine in Iran is very cheap. And this issue causes the reverse smuggling of medicines to neighboring countries.
Earlier, Shahbar Hassanpour Bigleri, a member of the Economic Commission of the regime’s parliament, had made a bizarre statement in December 2021 stating that now importers, pharmacies, and even the people are demanding that medicine be imported at the free-market currency rate.
These remarks come while the shortage and high price of medicine, especially some special medicines, in recent months and weeks have caused protests by Iranian citizens, and the scope of these protests has spread to social networks and cyberspace.
It remains to be seen whether, amid the dispute between Raisi’s administration and the parliament, the preferred currency from the pharmaceutical items under the pretext of low drug prices and smuggling will be removed.
The Internet, a Migraine for Iran’s Regime
The slowdown of the internet in Iran has become a major crisis and led to disputes between the Iranian regime’s officials. Many have already warned the government about the consequences of their decision to slow down the internet in the country and restrict access to it. Obviously, the decision has been prompted by the Iranian people’s increasing use of social media to communicate and organize anti-government protests and rallies. The regime is also terrified of the public’s access through the internet to news and information about the activities of its main opposition, the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK), and the Resistance Units.
Reacting to the internet slow-down, a former member of parliament Ahmad Shirzad warned on February 19, “The internet issue has become a critical subject and every government and agency which decided to change something will face problems.”
Once again, to shirk responsibility for the decision they have made, regime officials are coming up with different excuses to explain why the internet has slowed down.
The state-run news agency, ISNA, quoted the regime’s government spokesperson as saying on February 22, “The main reason for the slow speed of the Internet, especially in the fixed Internet, is related to the Coronavirus peak. The disruption has occurred since the existing coronavirus peak, especially the fixed internet. The existing infrastructure in the bandwidth, especially the fixed internet, is not commensurate with the needs of the country today and cannot respond to this coronavirus peak.”
As expected, Iranians rejected his claims, and many took to social media to mock the regime for their bold-faced lies, as no such thing happened in previous peaks, so why now?
The government’s claims were so baseless that even the state media outlets, like the Fars news agency, criticized it on the same day after the comments of the regime’s spokesperson: “Recent grievances show that these answers have not been a convincing answer for users, and people still have questions and ambiguities about the slowness and disruption of the Internet.”
In an article titled ‘Do not put a finger in the eyes of society’, the state-run Etemad daily wrote on February 22, “Some policies are doomed to failure due to the lack of support from society. A concrete example of such a policy can be seen in the law on satellite restrictions in the early 1990s. Iranian policymakers suffer from a kind of chronic’ technology phobia. It is afraid of technology and innovation and always feels threatened by it.”
Mehrdad Vayskarami, one of the regime’s MPs and the Secretary of the Joint Internet Protection Plan Commission spoke explicitly about “the feeling of fear and threat.” The state-run Hamdeli daily quoted him as saying, “Whenever acute political and security issues arise in the country, the government decides to block the Internet.”
On the other hand, MP Mohammad Taghi Naghdali in pointing out the main objective behind the decision to restrict and slow down the internet said, “I am referring to Article 22, paragraph 11. Today in Albania, 200 ‘hypocrites’ (MEK/PMOI) are poised to destroy the revolutionary government and parliament. The joint commission has discussed the protection of cyberspace users’ bill in 48 sessions and plans to convene the other 10 sessions. Even though the esteemed chairman has approved this bill today, it is still neither beneficial nor fruitful.”
On February 20, the Hamdeli daily predicted that the regime’s decision will ultimately fail, given the previous experience with dealing with technology. It wrote, “In contemporary history, we have gone to war with technology many times, from video, satellite, radio, and television to Telegram and Twitter. The result of the war against that technology is known from the very beginning. Even today, if one thinks that the way to manage the Internet and cyberspace is to reduce the bandwidth and filtering, they should rest assured that it will not work.”
On February 24, the state-run daily Farhikhtegan warned the regime that the decision will likely lead to civil disobedience and “the leverage of the policymakers over this space will also be lost.”
Quoting Nasser Imani, one of the regime’s experts, the same daily warned the regime and wrote that the “approval of the protection plan harms the social capital of the system,” noting that the parliament’s approach was “dangerous.”
In another article by the same daily, Mohamad Jafar Nanakar, a former regime official in the Ministry of Information and Communications Technology also warned the regime. “Assuming that this plan is realized and stabilized, it will create dissatisfaction. This plan will also create international problems if implemented. It will definitely be dealt with by the UN Human Rights Council,” he said.
Iran’s Regime Loses Iraq’s Gas Market
According to reports, Iran’s gas exports to Iraq have dropped significantly as Iraq is seeking to import gas from other countries.
With the cold season arriving, Iran has faced a shortage of gas and in some cases, the domestic gas consumed by Iranian citizens has been cut off.
The shortage of gas production in Iran has cast its shadow on its export to other countries.
In recent years, Iraq has been one of the main importers of gas from the Iranian regime, but this country has been affected by the consequences of gas shortages in Iran. In the cold seasons of the year, gas exports to Iraq from Iran fell to their lowest level.
In the absence of a guarantee to export the amount of gas agreed by the Iranian regime to Iraq, the country has recently sought to replace the Iran regime’s gas by reaching out to other countries to import guaranteed gas from them.
Recently, Ahmad Musa, a spokesperson for the Iraqi Ministry of Electricity, announced that electricity production at many of the country’s power plants had been halted due to a sharp drop in gas exports from Iran.
Musa added that the Iranian regime has reduced gas exports to Iraq from 50 million cubic meters per day to 8.5 million cubic meters.
In August 2021, Iraqi officials announced that they had begun diplomatic consultations to resolve the gas import problem.
In this regard, Hamid Reza Salehi, a member of the Iran regime’s Chamber of Commerce, recently announced that the Iranian regime has minimal sales of electricity to Iraq and no money is received, which has diverted the country’s large market against the favor of the Iranian regime to countries such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
Salehi lamented that the regime is losing Baghdad’s $20 to $30 billion markets, which is a great loss for the regime because of its critical economic situation.
In addition, the state-run daily Mardomsalari reported on February 22, 2022, a ‘countdown to the suspension of the Iranian government’s gas exports to Baghdad’ and announced that Iraq and Qatar were discussing the possibility of exporting Qatari gas to that country.
With these negotiations, which seem to have reached their final stage and will be implemented soon, Iraq will import gas from Qatar and reduce imports from the Iranian regime.
Earlier, Iraqi officials signed a memorandum of understanding with Saudi officials to import electricity from Saudi Arabia.
While Iran ranks second in the world in terms of gas reserves, the mismanagement and inadequacy of the regime in recent years has prevented the country from making optimal use of its vast gas fields.
For example, Iran shares a gas field with Qatar. Qatar alone is extracting gas from this field due to the relevant investment, while the resulting gas is burned on the Iranian side and goes into the air.
Compounding the problem is the fact that because of the US sanctions against Tehran, Baghdad is allowed to import energy but is not allowed to pay Tehran in cash.
The restrictions have been in place since Washington pulled out of the JCPOA in 2018 and re-imposed sanctions on Tehran. The White House has since required Iraq to pay for its energy imports from Iran in form of goods, not in cash.
And this is not the first time that the Iranian people are suffering economically because of the regime’s actions.
The same thing happened with electricity two years ago. At that time, the regime could not manage electricity and had problems in exporting electricity to Iraq, which also replaced the electricity it needed through Saudi Arabia. Therefore, the regime lost another important source of income.
In the meantime, Qatar is reaping huge benefits from this replacement, because it exports gas from the South Pars joint field. This is a blow to Iran’s national wealth because the regime is not able to extract gas from this field.
Corruption in Iran Spiraling Out of Control
According to the Iran regime’s media reports, the 2021-2022 public-private partnership bill will pave the way for legalized corruption in the coming years.
The 2021-2022 budget bill has run into problems. Serious doubts about the realization of the budget line to the staggering increase in taxes and sales of government assets and the scandals over rising prices of energy carriers and the impact of removing preferential currency from some imported goods account for this.
Moreover, another case that has become a source of great concern among the regime’s economists is the so-called ‘Public-Private Partnership Bill’.
According to the regime’s media and Ahmad Tavakoli’s ‘Transparency and Justice Watch Organization,’ the ‘public-private partnership bill’ is currently being pursued under two parallel axes in the Iranian parliament. Tavakoli belongs to the regime’s principlist faction close to supreme leader Ali Khamenei.
First, in the 2021-2022 Budget Consolidation Commission, under the note of the four budget laws of 2021-2022, Ebrahim Raisi’s government intends to recognize transfers to the private sector.
Secondly, in the Civil Commission of the regime’s parliament, it has been decided to review and decide on the bill proposed by the regime and instructions by the Planning and Budget Organization.
According to this instruction and note, some 86,000 projects are to be selected within two months of the date of the budget announcement, without even specifying the mechanism of this selection and even though the owners of these projects must submit these projects within one month.
‘Transparency and Justice Watch’ quotes Ahmad Tavakoli as saying that the corruption that is being observed now has started from the top of the regime and should be pursued by the officials and agencies in charge of monitoring and dealing with those who are corrupt.
On November 2, 2021, the state-run daily Shargh wrote, “The background to the Public-Private Partnership bill shows that it was drafted by a group of profiters so that they can institutionalize corruption, graft, and discrimination in the legislative and executive process through legislation. According to official statistics and statements, there are more than 86,000 semi-finished construction projects in the country. Ten billion rials in credit was allocated to complete each one.”
The report says that no government can bear the cost of completing these projects, so under this pretext, they try to hand them over to their friends for a small price, which is the source of disputes and conflicts of rival mafia currents.
Mohsen Renani, a regime economist, said that considering the amount of debt owed by the government and the prospect of a huge budget deficit even with the help of oil and tax revenues, the regime cannot complete these projects.
Renani concludes that in this case, it is ‘rational’ to create a process as soon as possible so that some of these semi-finished projects could be transferred to the private sector or even to foreign investors, and they try to complete these projects.
On the surface, it seems that this might work, but the problem occurs when according to Renani’s remarks and as the regime’s Court of Audit has reported, several of these transfers to the private sector (meaning companies affiliated with the IRGC), are 68 percent corrupt.
Renani mentions Moghan Animal Husbandry as an example, whose real value was 40 trillion rials, but the regime’s profiteers estimated falsely its value to be 18 trillion rials, and it was handed over to some of the regime’s elements under the pretext of privatization.
Renani also pointed to the period from the beginning of privatization in Iran in 1991 to the end of 2019 and concluded that 900 government-run projects and enterprises have been transferred to the private sector, the total value of which is currently estimated at 7,200 trillion rials.
He cites a report by the Court of Audit of 2018, when several major examples of corruption in the privatization of state-owned companies were highlighted, with the lowest level of corruption standing at 52 percent of the wealth of these companies.
Considering this percentage of corruption in 30 years after the Iran-Iraq war, the equivalent of 3,740 trillion rials of the wealth of the Iranian people has been looted by those in power.
According to him the ‘Public-Private Partnership’ bill, which is currently being quietly approved by the regime’s parliament, could create corruption equivalent to 15,600 trillion rials in the country, which will flow directly from the pockets of the Iranian people into the pockets of the corrupt officials.
He estimated that this amount was equivalent to four times the corruption of the privatization policy over the past 30 years leading up to 2019.
Farshad Momeni, a regime’s professor of economics, said that the so-called ‘public-private partnership bill’ would take the most corrupt part of the government (i.e., ‘government transactions’) to darker chambers of the government and will quietly attach this wealth of the people to the wealth of the regime’s nobles.
Quoted by the regime’s state-run news agency ILNA on March 21, 2021, he warned, “According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), public transactions, which have an annual value of nearly 20,000 trillion rials in the country, have the highest volume of bribes exchanged among the eight branches of government and equivalent to 57 percent of total government bribes.”
Some of the regime’s economists said the negative consequences are no less than the possible consequences of a 25-year contract with China.
The amount of corruption in this bill is so huge that Renani said, “The scale of corruption in all privatizations in the 30 years after the war (with Iraq) is roughly equivalent to a banknote going 1,440 times around the earth. It can be said that the ‘public-private partnership’ bill, which is now being passed quietly in parliament, has a ‘corruption capacity’ equivalent to 6,000 banknotes around the earth, i.e., more than four times the total privatization corruption of 30 years after the war.”
Taxes, a Corrupt Cycle To Plunder Iran’s Impoverished People
Taxes can be defined simply in a few sentences. For example, it can be said that tax is a part of the property or income or the price of some consumer goods or any natural or legal person, which is calculated and received by the government according to the law. And it is an important source of government revenue.
Taxes are an important tool to regulate the wealth in favor of poor people. And government’s tax revenues are used to improve public service and welfare.
But in the budget bill of the Iranian regime, we see another explanation. Here the regime is using taxes to compensate for the portion of the budget that has been allocated to its malign activities. This approach pushes more people below the poverty line every day.
The regime has increased taxes by 62 percent compared to the last year to generate an income of $21 billion.
The maximum amounts of this forecast are as follows:
- VAT: About $6 billion
- Corporate tax: About $5.4 billion
- Import tax: About $3.2 billion
- Tax on businesses and guilds: About $1.3 billion
- Wage tax on public and private employees: About $1.9 billion
Iran: IRGC’s Massive Corruption Aggravates Internal Fissures
Corruption and mafia relations within the Iranian regime’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) have an intriguing back story. This organization now has nearly full control over Iran’s economy. After the ruinous Iran-Iraq war, the regime gifted the country’s economy to the IRGC to be able to justify its existence, just as it was losing its legitimacy by the end of the eight-year war.
Since then, IRGC has continued its activities as an economic entity in parallel with its main duty as the regime’s guardian and the main force for domestic repression. Every day we see new scandals about the corruption of this organization leaked to the public, which exposes the main reason for all the people’s misery and the bankruptcy of the country’s economy.
On February 10, an article released by RadioFreeEurope exposed the extent of the IRGC’s astronomical corruption. The article read, “Radio Farda has obtained an audio file of about 50 minutes, most of which was a secret meeting and conversation between Mohammad Ali (Aziz) Jafari, the then Commander-in-Chief of the Revolutionary Guards, and Sadegh (Mirza Hassan) Zolghadrnia, the Former Economy and Construction Deputy of the Revolutionary Guards in 2018, regarding the corruption of the forces related to the IRGC Quds Force, the IRGC Cooperative Foundation and the Tehran Municipality.”
The regime’s first response to any criticism about their crimes and corruption is usually public denial. However, their officials and state media have been quick to take the stage and show their frustrations about this latest leak, which has highlighted the gaps in the regime’s security that have led to this information becoming public knowledge.
According to the Fars news agency on February 14, Ramezan Sharif the spokesperson to the IRGC said the evidence that this case is real while trying to exonerate Qassem Soleimani, the eliminated mastermind of the regime’s Quds Force terror organization. “For the past five years, the IRGC supervisory apparatuses have been suspected of mismanagement and misconduct in one of the companies affiliated with the IRGC Cooperative Foundation, according to their current methods and continuous surveillance. After a thorough and professional investigation, the case was referred to the courts, and the judiciary, in cooperation with the IRGC, issued verdicts against the offenders, who are currently serving their sentences,” he said.
Talking about Soleimani, he added, “This incident once again showed that the high-ranking martyr Commander Haj Qassem Soleimani could not be tolerated by the enemy and the theory that the enemy fears the martyr Qassem Soleimani more than (the living) Qassem Soleimani has been proven as an undeniable fact.”
On February 14, Hossein Shariatmadadri, the managing editor of the media outlet Kayhan, regime Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s mouthpiece, reacted to the disclosure of Soleimani’s role in this corruption case and exposed the regime’s squandering of the country’s wealth for its warmongering activities across the Middle East.
He said, “In a part of the conversation, Qassem Soleimani was also mentioned, and it was noted that the Quds Force was supposed to have a share in the profit of the mentioned company. Which part of this story is disgusting and rude?! Qassem Soleimani received a share for the Quds Force, how did he spend it?”
But even that is not the regime’s main concern about the revelation of such cases. It is the increasing disillusion among its forces and losing its credibility.
Mojtaba Tavangar, a member of the Economic Commission of the regime’s Parliament, whose speech was quoted by the parliament’s news agency ICANA on February 13, said, “The fact that some people inside the country are using this audio file to attack the speaker of the parliament is, willingly or unwillingly, propagandizing against the system and completing the puzzle of the enemies against the IRGC.”
On February 13, the state-run website Nameh News quoted a statement made by Mansour Haghighatpour, a member of the regime’s principlist faction, which highlighted the serious disputes at the core of the regime. The quote read, “With the release of the audio file, they have decided to hurt (Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher) Ghalibaf to get rid of him and synchronize the three branches. This audio file was from 2018, why did they publish it after four years?”
Finally, Mohammad-Ali Abtahi, a former regime Vice President, warned about the social consequences of such revelations on his Telegram Channel on February 13: “The figures, which are easily expressed in the recent audio file by high-ranking officials, remind people of all the budget cuts they hear in response to their demands. Each of these files, if not met with a logical response, would be a painful shock that could tear down the rest of the strands of weak public confidence in the government.”
He added, “Ignorance affects public opinion slowly but badly. The most crucial point is that the grandeur of the security apparatuses will be damaged with all these hacks and leaks?”
What Is the Message of Iran’s Enraged Society?
The potential of Iranian people’s rage against the regime is increasing and demonstrates itself in many forms. It reached a turning point during the November 2019 protests but was suppressed by the regime brutally. Now, however, officials are criticizing the regime’s conduct because they fear the consequences of their actions in the coming months and years.
In the second round of hearings in the Aban Tribunal, a London-based unofficial court that is dealing with the crackdown on the November 2019 uprising, a member of the regime’s Revolutionary Guards painted a horrific picture of the savagery with which the security forces crushed the uprising.
“I am a senior Revolutionary Guards officer in Tehran. I volunteered to testify in this court. I witnessed mass arrests and interrogations. Unfortunately, I was part of the arrests and witnessed the interrogation,” he said, adding, “The forces were ordered that they were free to open fire, arrest, interrogate, enter homes that suspects might have fled to. There was no need for a warrant from the prosecutor’s office. They were told to confiscate vehicles, destroy vehicles, do anything you can to quell the protests.”
On the second and third days… they deployed the Bassij, Imam Ali Units, and Saberin Units to use full force against the protesters. I witnessed buses full of arrested protesters. There were many protesters, injured and intact, female and male, young and old. They were handed over to the detention centers of the Revolutionary Guards.
“I witnessed interrogations, beatings, lashings. The protesters were stripped naked in the cold, in groups of 50 and 100. I don’t even think you can pack and beat animals as they did.”
Another witness, a police officer, said: “They sent me to the roof of the police station and told me just shot and do not care about these thugs who are gathering in front of the door and want to capture the police station.
“Shoot anyone who tries to enter the station. Looking from the roof we saw around 200 to 300 people. And other police officers who were on the street were shooting the protesters. Around 10 to 15 people were wounded, and a person who was shot near the door was on the ground with blood around his head. And I could not distinguish whether he is alive or dead.
“I cried, and felt bad and depressed, seeing the scene of the blood from above and those 10 to 15 people who were shot and injured lying on the ground.
“I didn’t know what I’m doing. At noon I delivered my gun and went home. And the next day when I returned to the station three plainclothes agents asked for me and took me and started the interrogation and asked why I left the roof. They beat me severely. They interrogated me for three days in the same way and asked me why I did not shoot the people. Why do I feel sick? Why did I not cooperate? Why did I not follow the orders of the commander?
“The people gathered in front of the door were not threatening us, because they did not have firearms, and we could stop them without shooting. They could stop the people with batons and protect the station, because I did not see any guns by the protesters, and no one shot at us.
“Nothing threatened the police and the station. With bare hands, you cannot capture a station. You need heavy weapons. They [the regime] feared that its organizations surrendered [to the people]. And therefore, they shot so hastily. And they had no problem killing the people.
“The order for this must come from the highest ranks. Which means from the city’s Security Council or even higher.”
The combination of these confessions with the regime’s political, social, and cultural crisis makes it clear that the regime is facing popular rage. Daily news and reports, and officials’ reaction to popular protests reflect their anxiety.
Comments by Mojtaba Mirdamadi the regime’s Friday prayer leader in Isfahan on February 4, 2022, show the regime’s predicament and its inability to control the country’s critical situation.
“If one day we don’t have the support of this leader, they will cut off your heads first,” he warned, adding, “Be careful! If we lose this power, we will have nothing.”
This reveals that the wall of repression is beginning to crack and once the wall collapses the regime will end up in the ash heap of history.
