Iran Deal Decision Affecting Oil Prices

Iran deal decision affecting oil prices

Iran Focus

London, 4 May – Oil prices evened out on Friday, following recent gains, but global supplies remain limited as the market prepares for Donald Trump’s decision on the fate of the 2015 nuclear deal.

On Monday, April 30, Brent crude oil hit a 3-1/2 year closing high of $75.17, but by Friday, this has dropped by 30 cents to $73.32 a barrel. US light crude had also dropped 20 cents to $68.23.

ANZ analysts Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari wrote: “Rising geopolitical risks have been a big factor behind oil’s strong rise this year. The extent of the rally would have been significantly weaker if not for recent tightness in the market. We expect the market to tighten even further in H2 2018.”

Leaving the Iran Nuclear Deal: Cause or Consequence of Global Security Threats?

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By Edward Carney

It was widely reported on Thursday that Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif had once again reiterated the Islamic Republic’s refusal to enter into new negotiations over the 2015 nuclear program, which US President Donald Trump has long promised to either improve or cancel. Zarif’s latest remarks came less than two weeks before the deadline for the renewal of American sanctions waivers put into place by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Trump has said that if Congress and the European signatories to the deal do not “fix the terrible flaws” in the agreement by May 12, he will allow those waivers to lapse.

Iran: Regional Tension Simmers in Southern Province

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Iran Focus

London, 3 May – “Resist, my homeland, there is not much left of you

Soon you will hear in your sky

the sound of smiles and liberation’s call.”

~ Ma’edeh Shabaninejad

Fifteen year-old Ma’edeh Shabaninejad is accused of inciting violence through her poetry about Iran’s Arab minority. She was arrested two months ago at her aunt’s house in the southern city of Ahvaz, where she was hiding. According to her father, Sahid Shabaninejad, security forces had previously raided her own home and confiscated her poems.

Is This the End of the Nuclear Deal?

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Iran Focus

London, 3 May – President Donald Trump has not hidden his disproval of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal that was negotiated under the Obama administration. He said during the presidential campaign that he would be scrapping the deal if he became president.

However, since taking office, he has been put under pressure from allies in Europe to continue certifying Iran’s compliance.

The Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act obliges the US President to declare that Iran is complying to the terms of the deal and to confirm that the continuation of the suspension of economic sanctions is essential to ensuring the national security of the United States.

Iranian Software Devs Release Altered Telegram to Subvert the Censorship

Iran Focus

London, 3 May – A pair of Iranian software developers has created a modified version of Telegram to subvert Iran’s latest attempt to block the instant messaging app.

Amin Sabeti and Nariman Gharib created a version that uses Psiphon software to help Iranians that aren’t already using a circumvention tool or virtual private network (VPN) to evade prying eyes.

The Iranian judiciary ordered that Telegram, which is used by around half of Iran’s 82 million people, be blocked on April 30 for its use by protesters in the ongoing uprising against the Mullahs.

Air France Limits Flights to Iran as Uncertainty Over the Nuclear Deal Grows

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Iran Focus

London, 3 May – Air France is cutting a service from Paris to Tehran, operated by its subsidiary Joon, citing poor economic performance over the past two years.

This decision comes as the international community is increasingly uncertain about the future of the 2015 Iranian Nuclear Deal, which Donald Trump is threatening to pull out of on May 12.

A representative from Air France said that the decision was not linked to the political climate, but it does seem like suspicious timing.

Iran Accelerates Arrests of Dual Nationals While Denying All Wrongdoing

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 Ramin Hossein - Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe -  Aras Amiri

By Pooya Stone

On Monday, it was reported that yet another dual national had been arrested in Iran and subjected to unsubstantiated accusations of membership in a foreign “infiltration network.” Mahan Abedin is described as a “security analyst” and the director of the London Center for Terrorism Studies, but much of his professional work has been criticized in the West and by Iranian dissidents for defending and sympathizing with the existing Iranian government. This fact suggests that hardline authorities such as the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Intelligence Ministry attach significantly more weight to foreign affiliations than to the actual views espoused by the person with those connections.

Consequences of US Exiting Iran Nuclear Deal

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Iran Focus

London, 2 May – In less than two weeks, President Trump will announce whether he is going to re-certify the 2015 Iran nuclear deal or not. It is uncertain whether he will once again waiver the sanctions but there has been a lot of speculation.

Trump announced that he wanted to ensure that the deal is strengthened and the loopholes that Iran is taking advantage of are removed. He wants the sunset provisions to be cancelled and he told the other signatories of the deal that Iran’s belligerence across the Middle East and its ballistic missile program must be addressed.

Iran Should Learn Lessons From North Korea

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Iran Focus

London, 2 May – As North Korea and South Korea appear to be heading towards peace, it is clear that the political landscape is changing for the better. While most of the world is celebrating this historic breakthrough, Iran would do well to learn from the Korean peace talks, according to political scientist Dr. Majid Rafizadeh.

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh writes in his latest column for Arab News that Iran should learn four key lessons from these talks, if the republic wants peace as much as it says it does. Let’s look at those lessons in detail.

Iran Refuses to Discuss Its Malign Behaviour

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Iran Focus

London, 2 May – The Supreme Leader of Iran has refused point blank to negotiate Iran’s malign role in the Middle East or its ballistic missile programme, something that Donald Trump wanted to fix under the nuclear deal.

Ali Khamenei instead accused the US Treasury Department of waging an economic war against Iran for the sanctions that have been imposed by the US over the past year, which relate to Iran’s human rights abuses and sponsorship of terrorism among other things.