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Iran Faces Blackouts and Air Pollution

Shahin Mahmoudi
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Iran Faces Blackouts and Air Pollution

In recent weeks, Iranian citizens have faced unprecedented power outages, leading Iran’s capital and major cities to darkness. In this respect, millions of people spend the majority of nights without electricity in the dead of winter.

The government uses mazut and low-price fossil fuel to keep power plants running, causing a blanket of toxic smog and hazardous participles over the sky in Tehran. This is while Iran lies on the world’s second gas reserves. However, the leaders’ intractable decisions have isolated the country and prevented Iranians from using their natural resources.

The extraordinary air pollution endangers many citizens’ lives and health, particularly in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic. Iranian dissidents have reported the Covid-19 death toll has surpassed 205,000, which is a chilling number for an 80-million population.

This statistic — and even one-fifth of it — is enough to register Iran as the worst coronavirus-hit country in the Middle East. Now, the people must endure air pollution while they are being blamed by officials for the high Covid-19 fatalities.

In such circumstances, Iranian state media outlets and experts unveiled that the government is granting electricity to the Chinese for mining cryptocurrency at Rafsanjan Trade Zone in Kerman province, southeastern Iran. Furthermore, some media revealed that officials have established enormous Bitcoin farms in various areas.

Power Outages in Iran as China Extracts Its Bitcoins

According to reports, the government authorized 24 Bitcoin processing centers that consume an estimated 300 megawatts of energy a day, attracted tech-savvy Chinese entrepreneurs to tax-free zones in the country’s south, and permitted imports of computers for mining.

Tehran’s generously subsidized electricity has put the country on the crypto-mining map. In Iran, electricity goes for around 4 cents per kilowatt-hour, compared to an average of 13 cents in the United States. Furthermore, Iran is among the top 10 countries with the most Bitcoin mining capacity in the world — 450 megawatts a day.

On Tehran’s outskirts and across Iran’s south and northwest, windowless warehouses hum with heavy industrial machinery and rows of computers that crunch highly complex algorithms to verify transactions.

Notably, due to the national currency rial’s devaluation, officials have an indescribable appetite for untracked currencies like Bitcoin. In this respect, contrary to their publicity stunts and positions — trying to dominate the cryptocurrency industry —officials tempt their affiliated individuals to launch these farms.

“Iran’s government has sent mixed messages about Bitcoin. On one hand, it wants to capitalize on the soaring popularity of digital currency and sees value in legitimizing transactions that fly under Washington’s radar… On the other hand, the government worries about limiting how much money is sent abroad,” wrote AP on January 22.

Recent power blockages and using mazut for plants have prompted public ire against the government’s policies. In this respect, officials have been compelled to reverse some decisions out of fear of a spark in the country’s powder keg.

“The priority is with households, commercial, hospitals, and sensitive places,” said Mostfa Rajabi Mashhadi, spokesman of Iran’s electricity supply department.

However, it is unclear that how long this situation would last and when the government would launch cryptocurrency farms once again. Not least given that the new U.S. government has signaled that it has no immediate intention of offering multi-billion relief packages and pallets of cash to Iran.

The Ayatollahs Hope U.S. Elections Will Save Them from Public Outrage

FBI Arrests Tehran’s Agent

Staff Writer
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FBI Arrests Tehran’s Agent

An agent for the Iranian government was arrested at his home in Watertown, Massachusetts, on Monday, after ten years lobbying in secret for the mullahs whilst posing as an independent political scientist.

Kaveh Lotfolah Afrasiabi, also known as Lotfolah Kaveh Afrasiabi, is charged with “acting and conspiring to act as an unregistered agent of the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran, in violation of the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA)”, according to a U.S. Justice Department press release.

“For over a decade, Kaveh Afrasiabi pitched himself to Congress, journalists, and the American public as a neutral and objective expert on Iran. However, all the while, Afrasiabi was actually a secret employee of the Government of Iran… who was being paid to spread their propaganda,” said John C. Demers, Assistant Attorney General for National Security.

Demers said that Afrasiabi had “intentionally avoided” registering his affiliation with the Justice Department, as required by the Foreign Agents Registration Act, and will now be held responsible for his actions.

“Afrasiabi allegedly sought to influence the American public and American policymakers for the benefit of his employer, the Iranian government, by disguising propaganda as objective policy analysis and expertise,” said Acting U.S. Attorney Seth DuCharme.

“This Office is committed to the robust enforcement of the Foreign Agents Registration Act, which provides the American people the tools they need to evaluate opinions and arguments in the marketplace of ideas by requiring foreign agents to declare their paymasters. Those, like the defendant, who conceal the full extent of their work for a foreign government when the law requires disclosure will face consequences for their actions,” he added.

Lobby group demands Iran be given ballistic missiles

Afrasiabi has now appeared in a Boston federal court before U.S. Magistrate Judge Jennifer C. Boal.

As with many of Tehran’s lobbyists in the U.S. and Europe, Afrasiabi’s main target was the Mojahedin-e Khalq (MEK/PMOI), which the government likes to falsely portray as a terrorist group that has no support in Iran, but because he posed as an independent political scientist, it took too long to see this as propaganda.

Alireza Jafarzadeh, deputy director of the U.S. branch of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), the MEK’s parent organization, said the move to arrest Afrasiabi and hold him to account was  “welcome and long overdue”, but warned that there are more like him across the U.S.

“Unfortunately, for the past three decades, the Iranian regime has been running an extensive network of agents and operatives, many of them U.S. persons, in clear violation of American law. The impunity with which Tehran has run its emissaries in the United States had emboldened them,” Jafarzadeh said.

Europe Condemns Iran’s Nuclear Moves but Further Action Is Needed

Staff Writer
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Europe Condemns Iran’s Nuclear Moves but Further Action Is Needed

Britain, France, and Germany, who are the three European signatories to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, sent out a joint statement on Saturday to express their concerns over Iran’s latest violations of the deal and threats to go further unless the world agrees to meet its demands.

They said they were worried over Iran starting work on uranium metal production, as this material can be used in the core of nuclear bombs and has “no credible civilian use”, and predicted “potentially grave military implications.”

Tehran Jeopardizes Global and Regional Peace with Unlawful Enrichment

It failed, however, to say what would happen if Iran didn’t comply with the agreement, which is typical of Europe’s appeasement of Iran.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian described the latest moves as the regime advancing its nuclear weapons capability, rejecting Iran’s claim that their nuclear research is academic or about power generation, which shows growing support for an assertive strategy on Iran.

His Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif accused him of spreading “absurd nonsense” and said that European nations had done nothing to save the agreement, following the 2018 withdrawal of the United States.

Iran’s FM Zarif Should Be Held to Account for Terrorism

This is a lie. Europe has done everything to save the deal, even after Iran’s many public violations. Iran has failed to save the deal because it can’t keep to its side of the bargain.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said Monday that Europe “deeply regrets the worrying steps taken by Iran” and has major concerns over the violations but still seems keen to keep the deal as is, even when it’s clearly not fit for purpose. Iran’s nuclear ambitions are dangerous for the region and the world, but that doesn’t mean they should be allowed to do what they want for fear of retaliation.

The best way to deal with the Iranian regime is strength. It’s ending a deal that the mullahs have already violated. It’s joining the US in getting a new deal that will work for everyone.

“The right approach to Iran’s blackmail is not to offer more concessions but to build an international coalition to put more pressure on the regime,” the Iranian Resistance wrote.

“Doing so would put the International community in a position to not only forestall Iran’s nuclear weapons capability but also to make positive strides in dealing with a wide range of issues, from Iran’s ballistic missile tests to the proliferation of Iran-backed regional militias, to the ongoing trends of hostage-taking, human rights abuses, and repression of dissent in Iran,” the NCRI added.

Iranian Opposition Reveals New Details About Military Aspects of Tehran’s Nuclear Program

Iran’s Misery Index Could Be 70 Percent

Staff Writer
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Iran’s Misery Index Could Be 70 Percent

Iran’s currency has plummeted in the past decade thanks to inflation and negative economic growth, meaning that the people’s purchasing power has decreased significantly, according to a Parliament (Majlis) Research Centre report earlier this month.

In the period March 2019-March 2020, food prices soared 22.5 percent, but in the period March 2020-March 2021, this is expected to rise to a 47 percent increase, while data shows that calorie consumption per person has been steadily declining since 2011.

Iran’s Government: “We Are 40 Years Behind the World”

The increase in food costs has increased levels of poverty across the country, with state-run media reporting that 96 percent of people in North Khorasan Province receive cash subsidies to bolster their income.

The subsidy is only about $2, allowing for only a few loaves of bread to be purchased, so it’s not especially helpful for starving people, but the fact that almost all people are on it, should show how desperate the situation is.

In fact, Majlis Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said in 2017, whilst running for President, that 96 percent of the country are in poverty.

President Hassan Rouhani boasted recently about his “monthly livelihood support package for 60 million people”, which began in November 2019, but this means that almost 10 percent of the country are too poor to afford the basics.

How can that be allowed to happen in the 21st century in a country that has the world’s second-largest gas reserves and third-largest oil reserves? Let alone for it to be something to take pride in.

Meanwhile, as could be expected, the misery index keeps on rising in Iran. The state-run media reported last year that 28 percent inflation and a 9.25 percent unemployment rate resulted in a 37.65-percent misery index, 16 percent higher than that in 2017.

And this is just according to the official stats. Economist Farshad Momeni reported a 70 percent misery index in December, while others have pointed to an unemployment rate of 24 percent at the start of the coronavirus pandemic.

The problems in Iran far preceded the Covid-19 crisis and will be around for ages after the virus has gone. The true problem here is the Iranian government, whose policies cause economic, health, and other crises and exacerbate even those they did not cause.

So long as power is held by the minority and not the majority, these problems will continue in Iran and get worse. The only way to improve the lives of the Iranian people and ensure economic growth is fundamental changes in Iran’s political system and institute a democratic government, which prioritizes the people’s interests at all.

Iranian Officials Use Stock Market to Plunder People’s Money

Pooya Stone
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Iranian Officials Use Stock Market to Plunder People’s Money

These days, the drop in Iran’s stock index has intensified people’s anger at the government’s economic mismanagement, a phenomenon that continues despite political rivalries.

In this context, at the first hours of Monday, January 18, the stock index drop reached 1,158,345 units with a 28,346-unit decrease. Meanwhile, the stock market has experienced a drop of more than 80,000 units.

State-run media outlets have warned over the eruption of stockholders’ anger due to this financial failure. Siasat-e Rouz daily reacted to the stock market’s freefall and described it as “burning the people’s money.” In parallel with the news, a large number of stockholders who have lost their assets held a gathering in front of Tehran’s Bourse building.

Iran’s Economy Facing New Trouble With the Fall of the Stock Market

“You have stolen our money and are boasting with it,” “Death to [President Hassan] Rouhani,” and “Death to the economic criminal,” chanted the protesters. Outraged people also downed the flag of the Tehran Stock Market and chanted the slogan: “Islamic casino is right here—in contrast to officials’ claims against gambling and betting.”

Furthermore, plundered people continued their protests in front of the Parliament (Majlis) on January 19. MPs affiliated with the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s faction criticized the Rouhani administration in what Iran observers described as attempts to evade responsibility for Khamenei and themselves. This is while in his speech on November 18, 2019, Khamenei personally encouraged citizens to engage in stock market transactions. “The people should invest in the Bourse,” the Supreme Leader said.

Following the stockholders’ protests, Tehran Stock Market Chief Hassan Ghalibaf resigned. However, the resignation neither extinguished public ire nor political rivalries. In this respect, Ahmad Naderi, MP from Tehran, declared the Majlis’ plan for impeaching Economic and Financial Affairs Minister Farhad Dejpasand. “The Bourse’s scandal is at the top of the articles for impeachment,” Naderi said.

“Using TV Channels, the [Rouhani] administration encouraged the people to invest in the bourse and dragged people’s capitals to the governmental casino’s slaughterhouse. Today, the government should be held accountable,” the MP added.

Majlis Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf also expressed concern over further protests and the loss of “social capital.” Recently, high-ranking officials have time and again spoken about the erosion of the establishment’s social capital, which is considered an inverse admission to society’s volatile condition and upcoming protests.

“The 2021-22 budget bill removes parts of incomes, facilities, and the country’s resources from the people’s food basket, in addition to expanding financial disorder in the country. The Stock Market has experienced a sharp freefall and even the Refinery Fund that was severely advertised by the [Rouhani] administration has imposed a 44-percent disadvantage to its customers,” said the Majlis Speaker.

“We do not accept such a state in the Stock Market, and the administration must seriously be held accountable in this context. It is impossible to use official tribunes to incite the people to invest their capitals in the bourse. Then [the administration] harms ‘public trust’ and devaluates people’s assets with its mismanagement,” Ghalibaf added, claiming, “The Majlis cannot ignore such expanded disadvantages and cons of people in the bourse… The administration must revive ‘social capital’ and the people’s trust in the stock market as soon as possible.”

Iran: ‘Exchange Balloon’ in the Hands of Outlaw Looters

In his remarks, another MP from Tehran Delkhosh Abatari expressed concern over public anger. “My first note is about the bourse’s condition. Currently, a riot has taken place inside the country. Those people who had trusted in the Bourse Organization have fallen into challenges and dilemmas,” said Abatari.

Deputy Speaker Ali Nikzad announced, “The Majlis Economic Commission has summoned Economy Minister and the Stock Market chief at 12:30 pm. They are supposed to explain the bourse’s conditions. However, our dear people must know that those who had invited citizens to the bourse must be held accountable.”

Iranian officials previously boasted about investing in the stock market as a means to collect people’s assets. In fact, they sacrificed citizens’ capital to counter economic pressure and, in this context, they resorted to fabricated statistics.

At the time, even government-linked economists issued numerous warnings about the hollow stats and the bourse’s fragile conditions. However, the state in its entirety had intended to collect people’s assets at all costs.

On August 26, 2020, Aftab Yazd daily revealed that the money of people who had invested in the stock market was ‘evaporating.’ “The stock fell so deep that it even said goodbye to the index of 1.7 million, reaching 1.662, a subject that has instilled fear and panic in the hearts of shareholders – mostly newcomers – and many are trying to leave the market,” the daily added.

Moreover, the daily Keyhan, known as Khamenei’s mouthpiece, had exposed that after the emotional growth of the stock market in a five-month period, the stock market index had decreased by 20 percent, more than 400,000 units, in just two weeks.

“The stock market also experienced a relatively significant decline today. All the promises and actions of the government to return the market to a normal situation have not borne fruit, about 15 trillion rials [$65 million] have vanished. Now the situation that has arisen needs to be investigated and necessary action needs to be taken,” the daily had added.

Mess in Iran’s Government

One Million Iranian Women Lose Jobs Because of COVID

Staff Writer
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One Million Iranian Women Lose Jobs Because of COVID

In the past eleven months, many Iranian breadwinners have lost their employment due to the coronavirus outbreak, which imposed additional pressure on low-income classes, particularly working families.

Up to 70 percent of the Iranians who lost their jobs during the pandemic were women, according to the Labor Ministry. Worse still, 62 percent of those employed in recent years don’t have insurance that would cover them for losing their job through no fault of their own and many are tied to contracts that prevent them from joining unions, so they are utterly alone when issues like this come up.

“For months, I worked as a daily rate worker in a store selling manteaux in downtown Tehran. I got paid based on the number of manteaux I sold to people. The employer also gave me a part of his profit, but I did not have a written contract or insurance. I have been working in the past several years in shops selling women’s clothing, but I have never had insurance,” said one woman who lost her job in the clothing industry.

Iranian Women in Unstable Jobs

Deputy Labour Minister Issa Mansouri admitted that women are the primary victims of this crisis back in December, but didn’t do anything, suggesting that they are creating jobs for women by increasing opportunities to work from home.

Nonetheless, this doesn’t take into account that working from home jobs, like handicrafts and sewing, are much more vulnerable to the strains of the pandemic or that women are less likely to have incomes that meet their livelihoods and any significant savings. Female heads-of-households are especially hard-hit because they are losing the one salary that was providing for all the family.

“Women’s employment was reduced by 749,000 individuals in spring 2020, compared to the same time last year. Another 120,000 women lost their jobs from spring to summer 2020. These statistics show how much the outbreak of the Coronavirus has impacted women’s employment,” said Alaeddin Asvaji, general director of the Labour Ministry’s office of policy-making and expansion of employment.

That’s nearly one million women who have lost their jobs in Iran in one year, who are now struggling to make ends meet because the government is offering them no real support, even though the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei controls hundreds of millions of dollars that could easily be distributed. Much of this money, ironically, is held in institutions that are supposed to help the poor.

It feels certain that this situation will continue as long as the current ruling theocracy stays in power, with women bearing the brunt of this, as always.

Iran: A Glance at the Supreme Leader’s Mafia

Western Policymakers Ignore Iran-Al Qaeda Relationship at Their Peril

Edward Carney
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Western Policymakers Ignore Iran-Al Qaeda Relationship at Their Peril

In a recent speech, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made it clear that Western policymakers have been wrong to assume an inherently antagonistic relationship between Iran’s Shiite theocracy and the Sunni terrorist group Al Qaeda.

Pompeo revealed for the first time that Al Qaeda’s second-in-command, Abu Muhammad al-Masri, was killed on the streets of Tehran last year. His presence there was indicative of a larger pattern of Al Qaeda operatives being given safe passage or stable residence in Iran, and it lends credence to Pompeo’s allegation that Iran is now effectively the central base of operations for the terrorist group responsible for 9/11.

It would be difficult to overstate the danger that this relationship poses to the United States and its allies. Iran has a long history of channeling its own terrorist objectives through a range of proxy groups like Hezbollah.

The regime’s capabilities are potentially multiplied by the addition of another high-profile organization to this network, especially if that occurred at a time when new proxies were proliferating across the Middle East.

Civil conflicts in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen have given the Islamic Republic ample opportunity to recruit and cultivate militant operatives in each of those locales. Many of them now stand at the head of groups that swear allegiance to Iran’s supreme leader and are most likely prepared to demonstrate their devotion through operations beyond Iran’s borders.

Of course, Al Qaeda does not share this motivation. Western policymakers are correct in noting that the Sunni organization rejects the brand of Islam for which Ali Khamenei aspires to be the sole global leader. But mutual antagonism of Western democracies is and always has been reason enough for Al Qaeda and Iran to work toward the same goals.

Intelligence reports have variously found that the two entities were more than willing to put aside their ideological differences in order to undermine American and European interests. It is for that reason that Iran sheltered Al Qaeda operatives in the wake of the 9/11 attacks and the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan.

Their shared goals also led to Iran acting as a funnel for Al Qaeda fighters trying to make their way to Syria, where they helped to prolong and intensify the civil war, leading to a much deeper Iranian footprint on the country.

This and related developments have greatly imperiled the prospects for regional stability and global security. But much of this could have been avoided if Western policymakers had been appropriately sensitive to the broad, multi-sectarian networks that were beginning to develop years ago. Pompeo’s recent speech did not convey altogether new information.

It only highlighted the outcome of a long process whereby Islamist terror groups have been cooperating to strengthen their hand against foreign powers that were largely preoccupied with other matters.

Iran Helps Al-Qaeda to Rebuild

Pompeo identified 2015 as the turning point where cooperation between Iran and Al Qaeda became systematic and formalized. This, he noted, was when the United States, the European Union, and three of its leading member states were laser-focused on concluding a nuclear agreement with the Islamic Republic.

Not only did that process encourage the Western powers to turn a blind eye to developments that might have threatened the negotiations, but it also promoted those negotiations as a sign that Iran, an Islamist state, was fundamentally different and more trustworthy than Al Qaeda, an Islamist non-state actor.

This assertion of the Iranian regime’s legitimacy was unearned and unwarranted. It was also duly exploited by Iranian entities like the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which celebrated the 2016 implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action by capturing a U.S. Navy boat and briefly detaining 10 American sailors.

No doubt, the lack of consequences for that and other provocative incidents has emboldened the Islamic Republic to pursue more of the same, sometimes directly and sometimes through its proxies.

In 2018, this trend apparently culminated in a terrorist plot that, had it been successful, would have been the worst Iranian terrorist attack to take place on Western soil in decades. In June of that year, the pro-democracy coalition known as the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) held its annual rally of Iranian expatriates near Paris.

Historical Trial of Iranian Diplomat in Europe

On the day of the event, an Iranian-Belgian couple was arrested while trying to cross into France carrying an explosive device that had been given to them in Luxembourg by a high-ranking Iranian diplomat, Assadollah Assadi.

When the trial of these individuals began in November, it was established that the bomb was powerful enough to kill hundreds of people in the initial blast, not to mention those who might have died in an ensuing stampede.

A verdict for Assadi, the would-be bombers, and a fourth accomplice is expected to be handed down by the Belgian court this week. Assadi faces a 20-year sentence and he deserves every minute of it, but his individual culpability must not overshadow the fact, highlighted by prosecutors in his case, that he was acting under the direction of government authorities in the Islamic Republic.

His conviction and sentencing should bring greater international attention to the overall phenomenon of Iranian terrorism, as well as the general phenomenon of religious terror since these are increasingly one and the same.

If Iran was willing to use one of its own diplomats in an attempt to carry out a bombing in the heart of Europe, one can only imagine what the regime might be willing to do through its proxies in the near future, especially if it knows that Western policymakers don’t even believe in those proxies’ relationships with Tehran.

If the Biden administration or the foreign policy leadership of the European Union decides to ignore the relationship between Iran and Al Qaeda, it does so at its peril. Unfortunately, the EU has lately given the impression that it is more concerned about imperiling the nuclear deal. But if that deal is threatened by the straightforward demand that Iran ends its relationship with Al Qaeda, then it is surely not a deal worth saving.

EU Policy on Tehran Leads to Terrorism

Tehran Plays ‘Good Cop, Bad Cop’ with the West

Staff Writer
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Tehran Plays ‘Good Cop, Bad Cop’ with the West

Iranian authorities are masters at the “good cop, bad cop” strategy, a method of alternating threats and friendly gestures to fool the West into thinking that there is a moderate section in the Islamic Republic.

However, as the Iranian coalition opposition National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) has repeatedly pointed out, this is not true and both sides are pursuing the same objective: appeasement.

The Iranian government would have the West believe that the “reformist” President Hassan Rouhani and his aides are the good cops, who want a true democracy but need concessions from the West to stop the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), or bad cops, from getting too angry and instituting a dictatorship. This false distinction encourages the West to appease the ayatollahs, even in the face of malign actions, because the West must fear it getting worse.

“We have seen this, for instance, in conciliatory nuclear agreements like the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which provided the entire regime with relief from effective economic sanctions in order to forestall the threat of nuclear weapons development,” the NCRI wrote.

Tehran Is Concerned About a New “JCPOA Plus”

“Iran didn’t have to offer much in order to secure that outcome. The good cop just had to promise that he would hold back the bad cop from unleashing the most extreme punishment imaginable,” the Iranian opposition added.

There can’t be many more effective threats than possible nuclear annihilation, but even smaller threats are remarkably effective, such as Iran’s long and troubling history of hostage-taking, which was resurrected last week when the IRGC seized a South Korean tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.

They said that ship was illegally polluting Iranian waters, but these unsubstantiated claims were rejected by the ship’s owner and Iran’s state-run media then admitted that this was designed to pressure South Korean negotiators over the $7 billion in Iranian oil revenues that are frozen under U.S. sanctions.

Of course, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, citing judicial independence, has tried to say that he has no control over this and that this is a matter for the courts, but that is not true.

Iran’s FM Zarif Should Be Held to Account for Terrorism

The Judiciary is not independent and there is no real distinction between the beliefs and goals of the government and the IRGC, but Zarif needs the West to believe that there is so that he can keep negotiating with them, without surrendering the IRGC’s leverage, and secure what the government wants.

“That euphemistic narrative must be rejected by the international community, regardless of whether South Korea ultimately agrees to release the seven billion dollars,” the NCRI stated.

“Toward that end, Western policymakers and the media could strike a significant blow against the Iranian “good cop, bad cop” routine by showing the evidence of collaboration between the two sides of that routine,” the statement added.

Iran Commits to Provocation Ahead of Start Date for New U.S. President

Edward Carney
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Iran Commits to Provocation Ahead of Start Date for New U.S. President

On Wednesday, January 13, South Korea’s Vice Foreign Minister Choi Jung-Kun met with a number of Iranian officials in Tehran but was rebuffed in his efforts to secure the release of a South Korean-flagged tanker that was seized by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on January 4.

The incident is apparently part of Iran’s bid to compel the South Korean government to facilitate the release of seven billion dollars in frozen Iranian assets, but the accompanying show of force by the IRGC may have also been intended to reinforce an aggressive posture toward the United States and other leading adversaries.

This latter motive was on display in other developments that coincided with Tehran’s public rejection of negotiations that might facilitate the release of the tanker, Hankuk Chemi.

Wednesday also marked the first of two consecutive days of military drills outside the Strait of Hormuz, in the Gulf of Oman. The operation involved the test firing of surface-to-surface cruise missiles, the development of which had been lauded by Iranian military figures in prior months as a deterrent against Western influence in the region.

Why Iran Arms Embargo Should Be Extended?

Images of the two-day drills were shared widely via Iranian state media on Thursday, though officials strayed from familiar patterns by sharing few specific details about the equipment that was used.

In July, however, the Islamic Republic professed to have tested cruise missiles with a range of about 275 miles. This sort of gesture represents an expansion of the regime’s preexisting focus on ballistic missile technology, which noticeably persisted in the run-up to this week’s naval exercises.

Recently, Rear Admiral Alireza Tangsiri, the head of the IRGC’s naval division, participated in a ceremony to unveil a new underground missile base that is reported to be several miles long and located near the Persian Gulf coast.

Soon thereafter, he appeared on state television to deliver remarks highlighting a range of supposed examples of Iran demonstrating effective strength in the surrounding region.

Among these were the 2019 downing of an American spy drone that authorities said had strayed into Iranian airspace, though the U.S. said it was continually operating over international waters.

That incident brought Iran and the U.S. to the brink of war, with President Donald Trump reportedly calling off a planned retaliatory airstrike at the last moment, after determining that the likely casualties would constitute a disproportionate response to the destruction of an unmanned aircraft.

Trump would make a similar calculation the following year after Iran launched a volley of missiles at Iraqi military bases where U.S. personnel were stationed, causing traumatic brain injuries in dozens but killing none.

In that case, the Iranian strike was itself a retaliation against the killing, on January 3, 2020, of Qassem Soleimani, the head of the IRGC’s foreign special operations division, the Quds Force.

Who Was Qasem Soleimani, the Head of Iran’s IRGC Qods Force Terror Group?

The recent first anniversary of the Soleimani killing raised widespread concerns that Iran might take further provocative actions and once again inflame the danger of open conflict.

Hardline officials and members of the IRGC had never really ceased to threaten such retaliation in the intervening year, and so American forces made a point of demonstrating their readiness to meet any regional threat, in hopes of deterring Iran.

This included the deployment of a guided-missile submarine, the USS Georgia, to the Persian Gulf, as well as four separate deployments of B-52 bombers to fly non-stop from the U.S. to the edge of Iranian airspace.

If Tehran did have any concrete plans for violently marking the anniversary of Soleimani’s death, it would appear that the deterrence worked, since there have been no reports of anything other than performative saber-rattling by Iranian forces.

However, there are also signs that American officials believe the threat has not sufficiently abated. Following the passage of the January 3 anniversary, it was announced that Georgia would be departing the Persian Gulf and returning home, but this announcement was promptly reversed by the Department of Defense, and Thursday’s Iranian missile drills ended up taking place in the immediate vicinity of the submarine.

In fact, that American vessel even appeared in Iranian state media broadcasts, where it was presumably intended to given the impression that Iranian shows of force had effectively deterred a more heavily-armed “enemy” from encroaching directly onto Iranian territory.

That message was separately conveyed on Wednesday by Tangsiri and others, as they sought to turn public attention toward another recent anniversary, arguably overshadowing unfulfilled, hardline demands for a retaliatory display on the anniversary of Soleimani’s death.

In lieu of such a display, Tangsiri attempted to portray his forces as having already conclusively demonstrated that Iran is prepared to repel further aggression from Western powers.

“If a country intends to invade or threaten our Islamic homeland, as on January 13, 2016, our answer will be absolutely decisive and tough,” he said, referring to an incident exactly five years ago in which the IRGC seized a U.S. Navy boat, briefly detained 10 sailors, and used their images extensively in state propaganda.

A statue was later erected to commemorate the arrests, and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei awarded the nation’s highest honor to the IRGC members who were involved.

However, Tangsiri’s reference to foreign invasion dramatically overstates the facts of the case. The boat in question only barely strayed into Iran’s territorial waters after breaking down during a training exercise near Farsi Island.

The accompanying fanfare from Iranian media was somewhat undercut by the fact that the sailors’ release was negotiated after about a day, and carried out without further incident or any known concessions on the American side.

That being the case, it seems reasonable to conclude that ongoing references to the incident in Iran are intended primarily or solely for a domestic audience, and especially for hardline entities that are eager to believe in the narrative of an effective “Resistance Front” against Western influence in the region.

The latest military drills and displays of new weapons, however, are most likely intended both to reinforce this narrative domestically and to raise concerns among Western policymakers about the possibility of future conflict, which may be costly even if it doesn’t pose a genuine, long-term threat to the U.S. military.

In a recent editorial for Fox News, Heritage Foundation scholar James Carafano argued that Iran’s impulse to exploit these concerns is especially strong now that the U.S. is transitioning from the Trump administration to the Biden administration.

The latter has signaled interest in returning to the nuclear deal from which his predecessor withdrew. And Carafano believes that this has encouraged Iran in the belief that it will soon be able to return to prior conditions in which “it had good success with past American administrations and the Europeans by acting increasingly aggressive.”

“This is not just about going back to the deal. If that is all Tehran wanted, it could have just sat pat and done nothing. This is about getting an even sweeter deal than they got from Obama,” Carafano added, referring to the administration in which Biden served as vice president.

Under President Barack Obama, the U.S.-led six other world powers in negotiating the controversial agreement that granted Iran wide-ranging relief from economic sanctions in exchange for voluntary restrictions on Iran’s enrichment and stockpiling of nuclear material.

After President Trump triggered the re-imposition of sanctions, the Iranians began violating the terms of the deal, abandoning them altogether in January 2020 after the Soleimani incident.

Inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency have remained in the country since then, but their most prominent role has since become the confirmation of incremental steps toward nuclear weapons capability which Iran has proudly announced, albeit while denying that that is the end goal.

Iran MP Calls for Leaving the NPT

Last week, the IAEA confirmed that Iran had begun enriching uranium to 20 percent fissile purity, thereby returning to the level of progress the country had achieved before entering into the 2015 agreement.

Now, Iran is reported to be further reducing compliance with the deal by starting research on the production of uranium metal. Under the terms of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran was explicitly barred from conducting that research for 15 years.

However, the regime underscored the ease with which these provisions can be broken when it casually informed the IAEA of its intentions. If the research ultimately yields an enriched final product, that uranium metal would have the potential to be used in the core of a nuclear weapon.

The latest violation has predictably put Iran’s most serious critics on edge, especially after observing that violation in the context of Iran’s ongoing nuclear build-up. The government of Israel has called upon the United Nations to immediately convene meetings to discuss these developments.

The Ayatollahs Hope U.S. Elections Will Save Them from Public Outrage

More specifically, it has urged a comprehensive embargo on military equipment and missile technology. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Jake Sullivan, Biden’s choice for National Security Advisor, emphasized that the Biden administration would act “in consultation with our allies and partners.”

And although he showed considerable interest in negotiations as an alternative to the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” strategy, Sullivan also said that the goal of those negotiations would be “to tighten and lengthen Iran’s nuclear constraints, as well as address the missile program.”

Tehran Continues Abusing Prisoners

Staff Writer
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Tehran Continues Abusing Prisoners

Regarding the horrible situation of human rights in Iran in 2020, the Iran Human Rights Monitor Iran-HRM.com provided a comprehensive report. In this respect, human rights activists provided valuable details about the government’s ill-treatment against prisoners, particularly political activists, prisoners of conscience, and followers of ethnic and religious minorities.

As is common under the government, Iranian prisoners were subjected to harassment, psychological and physical torture, denial of medical treatment, and executions in breach of international law.

No Separation for Political Prisoners

Prisoners of conscience were constantly placed on wards with violent offenders, which is a violation of the Principle of the Separation of Categories of Crimes, in order to exert pressure on them.

This happened in prisons across the country, but the main offenders were listed as the Central Prison of Karaj, Sepidar Prison of Ahvaz, Qarchak Prison in Varamin, and the Great Tehran Penitentiary.

Several times this resulted in the assault or threatening of political prisoners by ordinary criminals, sometimes encouraged by the authorities.

For example, in September, Parastoo Mo’ini and Forough Taghipour were attacked by inmates on the orders of the Qarchak Prison warden, while in July, Jafar Azimzadeh was attacked twice in one day by two inmates whom he didn’t know, and Behnam Mousivand and Behnam Mahjoubi were attacked in Evin prison.

Solitary Confinement, Officials’ Means for Pressuring Inmates

Authorities have again used lengthy solitary confinement to exert pressure on prisoners, especially to break hunger strikes. This was used against numerous detainees from the November 2019 protests, who were also denied medical treatment for injuries relating to torture.

November Protesters’ Lives in Danger in Iran Prison 

It was also used against protester Navid Afkari and his brothers, arrested during August 2018, political prisoner Arjang Davoudi, 67, who has suffered severe beatings, and students Ali Younesi and Amir Hossein Moradi, arrested in April.

Authorities Torture Prisoners by Medical Treatment Denial

It’s a common abuse of their rights to deny medical care to sick or wounded prisoners., but the government has ramped up this torture against prisoners during the coronavirus pandemic.

Some key examples of political prisoners abused in this way include:

  • Saber Rezaei
  • Changiz Ghadam Khairi
  • Mohammad Reza Saifzadeh Pezeshkan
  • Saeed Eghbali

Fabricated Cases Against Inmates

Authorities have brought fabricated cases against several political prisoners, including Soheil Arabi, Niloufar Bayani, Nejat Anvar Hamidi, Majid Assadi, Mohammad Bannazadeh Amirkhizi, and Payam Shakiba, to intimidate them.

Two Political Prisoners Denied Medical Care Despite Covid-19 Symptoms

Attacks Against Defenseless Prisoners

Iranian authorities openly attacked prisoners on multiple occasions last year, most often during the protests over wanting release during the pandemic to reduce fatalities.

There is also a systematic effort to get prisoners addicted to drugs, which further intimidates them and makes them more vulnerable.

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